Race Analysis - Saturday, September 10

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: TAYLORS DEAL has worked well enough for a trainer that can have them ready first time and is bred to win early. His sire won two races as a 2-year-old and is 1/7 with first time starters. Taylors Deal is a half-brother to 2-year-old debut winner Taylor Says and Afleet Deal who has won eight sprints. It isn't very encouraging to see him show up for half the price they paid for him as a yearling but the barn isn't afraid to spot them aggressively. SLEWS LUCKY LEE may have tipped his hand with a sharp three-furlong move out of the gate August 25 and the leading rider is attracted. He is a half to 2-year-old stakes winner Lukin Awesome who won his debut. MAZEL PRINT ran well in his debut in a two-turn sprint and could be dangerous in his second start for a trainer that has decent recent stats with second-time starters.

RACE TWO:  POW takes a dramatic plunge in class after trying stakes winners Don'twaitforme and Silly Fella in his first two tries with winners and he is going to appreciate the much easier company. The layoff and the huge drop are serious concerns but he comes out of a live barn and Condlilenios has solid stats with horses returning from this type of layoff. SILVER RULER has been a beaten favorite in four of his last five starts but probably won't be the public choice this time and could make amends at what should be a reasonable price. He was up close to an honest pace before backing out of it in his latest and he should appreciate the move back to a sprint. I'MARAINBOWRIDER couldn't catch the lone speed in his latest but he ran well to finish second and should be heard from late. FULL TIME DUKE is stepping up to face winners the first time but he appears to have the best speed in the field and could take them a long way if he breaks alertly.

RACE THREE:  GREENWICH should appreciate the drop into a straight maiden claiming race for the first time and could be tough to handle if he repeats his strong performance in his first try in a two-turn sprint. He set an honest pace before giving way late and his stablemate, who won the race, came back to win the $100,000 Jack Diamond Futurity. FRUITION'S FINALE had a rough trip when he debuted going 3 1/2 furlongs for this price and should improve with a race behind him. Both of his siblings are winners and one of them won going a middle distance so the added yardage should only help. His trainer also has solid stats with second-time starters. BRODMEISTER chased a fast pace before fading when he debuted in a maiden special race June 19 and he could be dangerous if he clears early. OSCAR AWARD is worth a look at what should be a square price. He showed some promise in his troubled debut going 3 1/2 furlongs, has worked well since and is the first foal out of a mare that won three sprints.

RACE FOUR:  WITH COUNCIL has gotten off to poor starts in both of his races and still finished second. He only has one horse outside of him so maybe he'll get away a little better. If he does he should be right there. If not, MADEIRA PARK could be tough to catch. She ran into tough ones in her first two starts: Claresmiezie won her next two starts in stakes races by wide margins and Sartorialist, who came back to win the $100,000 Jack Diamond Futurity. She is a full-sister to $190K stakes winner Langara Lass and a half to $148K stakes winner Overact. They both won stakes races at two and three. OUCH comes out of the same barn as the top pick and she figures to move forward in her second start after a rough trip going 3 1/2 furlongs. STRAIT OF DOVER came back with a solid five-furlong move after getting away slowly in his debut. He scratched out of a tougher spot on Saturday to run here and could do some damage if he leaves there running.

RACE FIVE: RIO NOVO chased an extremely fast pace before tiring to finish third when he came back from a two-month layoff and could be tough to catch if he clears early. He certainly figures to move forward in his second start back and the shape of the race could work in his favor. CONCILIATION finished in front of the top pick last time but he did most of his running late while RIO NOVO did all the hard work early. Nonetheless, anything out of this barn deserves considerable respect and he is an obvious candidate for the top spot. I CAN DANCE probably wants more distance, but he is coming off an improved effort and could get up in time to pick up a slice. Use him in the exotics along with INVINCIPLE EAGLE who has speed in a race where they probably won't be going that fast early.

RACE SIX:  HER TIME TO SHINE has won two of her last three, drops to a new low and if she comes anywhere close to putting up the same kind of Beyer Speed Figure she did in her latest she is the winner. Barn continues to roll and the only negative is the very short price she is going to pay. J J'S WANDER has only been off the board once in her last 12 starts, and though she is coming off a short layoff she runs well fresh. Her last two works were solid and VanOverschot has strong recent stats with horses coming back in this time period. BESPOKE just missed as the chalk in a similar race August 19 and at the least should be part of any exotics ticket.

RACE SEVEN:  NICOTIANA set very fast fractions before caving when she stretched out to a mile and a sixteenth in a first-level allowance race August 31 and will appreciate both the easier company and the move back to a sprint. She won her last two sprints before going on a two-month break and could be tough to catch if she can get the jump on MEDANO BEACH. PIGTAILS finished behind NUJ NUJ WINK WINK in her latest but she went wide around both turns while NUJ NUJ WINK WINK was saving ground along the rail. It is tough to separate them and also AQUATIC who was just a neck behind in the same race. The trip will have a lot to do with the outcome. DE VILBISS has won her last three sprints and should appreciate the shorter distance after fading going longer. She is worth a look at what should be a decent price.

RACE EIGHT: LIBENZ ran a huge race when she stretched out to 1 1/16 miles for the first time in a $30K optional maiden race August 25 and if she can come close to duplicating her strong performance she'll be tough to handle in this $5,000 maiden claiming race. The steep drop isn't too big of a concern because she was running for this price at Emerald Downs three back. STRAWBERRY ISLAND will try and take them all the way with Dunn riding at a feathery 109 pounds. She just about made it last time but it is not surprising Wilson abandons her to ride the top pick. ZETTABYTE ran an even race to finish fourth in the same race STRAWBERRY ISLAND exits and figures to move forward in her second try going around three turns. QUIET TAP had a rough trip in the same race and should be considered for the exotics off her two previous races where she finished second as the heavy chalk.