Race Analysis - Sunday, October 2

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE:  LADY SAFFRON seems to be heading in a positive direction and she just missed in a similar race Sept. 11. She should be able to stalk suspect speed and a repeat of her latest could be good enough. ACCEPTABLE HENNA figures to move forward in her second start back after being away for almost two months. She could pick up the pieces at what should be a decent price. FEI YAN probably wants more distance but she has picked up slices in sprints and she is coming off a strong performance in a longer race for this condition. Use her in the exotics along with MADDY JADE who won't mind the move back to a sprint.

RACE TWO:  HERBIE D won't be much of a price but it is hard to see him getting beat here. He was moved up to first in the B.C. Cup Stellar’s Jay in just his third start and then was overmatched but was still in the race at the top of the stretch in the Grade 3, $200,000 B.C. Derby in his latest. He towers over this field and should control the race right from the start. SILVER CITY SAM has been in the tri in 5 of his 6 starts at the distance and is coming off a strong second in a $50,000 optional race Sept. 18. He looks as good as any to round out the exacta. TOO MUCH DIRT is reunited with Baze and could make some noise from off the pace.

RACE THREE:  I CAN DANCE appears to be sitting on a win. He closed strongly to finish second at this level and distance two back, then finished third in a sprint and the second horse came back to win. His lack of speed is a concern but there are a few horses stretching out for the first time so an honest pace could develop. GOODY FOUR FEET didn't have any noticeable excuses in his latest sprint but he wants more distance and he gets it here. FOREVERINTIME drops to a new low and won't mind the move to a route after an even effort in his latest sprint. He'll certainly appreciate the easier company but not sure why he's been off for more than a month. He's probably going to be a short price so you might want to try and beat him. I'M FAMOUS finished second the only time he went this distance but drew a tough post. Consider using him in the exotics.

RACE FOUR:  J J'S WANDER figures to move forward in her second start back following a short layoff and with her decent tactical speed she could get a nice trip from just off what should be a hotly contested pace. FISHERS CATCH cuts back to a sprint following a near miss going longer. She has won sprinting and over the past five years her trainer has a 33 percent strike rate with horses going from a route to a sprint. GRANNIE GREENE figures to be one of the ones battling it out early and she should be fit enough after setting the pace and tiring in back-to-back route attempts. CALL ME JEWEL may have tipped her hand with a bullet half-mile move Sept. 25 and could make some noise from off the pace.

RACE FIVE:  QUATRILL'S RAIDER ran a big race when he debuted at this level August 18 and then couldn't keep up when he was overmatched in the $50,000 CTHS Sales Stakes in his second start. He will appreciate being back with maidens and it is encouraging to see Hamel accept the call. TAYLORS DEAL has been working well enough for a trainer that can have them ready to go first time and he is a half-brother to Taylor Says who won his debut at two and placed in the Derby Bar and Grill Express in his second start as a 3-year-old facing older horses Sept. 11. No surprise if he comes out running. MAZEL PRINT got squeezed back at the start, blew the first turn and then tired after making a threatening move while going four wide in his debut at this level. He figures to take a big step forward in his second start and could offer decent value. He would look a lot better if he wasn't a vet scratch the last time he was entered, however.

RACE SIX:  DIANA'S LEGACY looked pretty good beating tougher last Sunday so it is surprising to see her drop down for this. Nonetheless, it is the last day of the meet and if she can handle coming back this quickly she should be tough to handle. There also appears to be plenty of speed to set up her good late move. INCLUDE THE GRAND won't mind the move back to a sprint after forcing a quick pace in her latest route. She also figures to improve with Baze, who can amaze, picking up the mount. MCGILL has won almost half of her races in the past two years and she also runs well fresh so the short layoff shouldn't hurt her. She could get first crack at what should be tiring speed.

RACE SEVEN: COLONEL COURTNEY won three straight before losing by a nose to Full Power Ahead who came right back to win his next start at this level. He's had three solid works since he ran and he should be hard to deny from a stalking position. AFLEET MAC is on a roll with three straight wins and he won't mind the move back to a sprint after winning in his first try going around three turns. SAGE GOLD won the last time he ran for this price and he looked pretty sharp when he worked a sharp four furlongs last Sunday. There is plenty of speed in the field and the race could set up nicely for MONSTERINTHECLOSET who hits pretty hard at this level.

RACE EIGHT: CLASS INCLUDED ran faster when she won the $100,000 B.C. Oaks than the older fillies and mares did on the same card in the Delta Colleen and figures to get a similar stalking trip with Baze retaining the mount. She appears to be getting better with each race and she is also undefeated in two starts at the distance. HARD WAY TEN just missed to DASHING DAISY in the Delta Colleen and figures to move forward in her second start over this surface. She looked full of herself when she breezed a half mile here Wednesday. DASHING DAISY is probably the best of the four-horse Todd and Kinsella entry but she drew a poor post and could bounce after a hard race in the Delta Coleen. On the other hand SUMMER SONG is fresh and won't mind being back at her home track. WANDO WOMAN should appreciate the expected quick pace and could get up to pick up a slice. Use her in the exotics.

RACE NINE: JEBRICA just missed while carrying 126 pounds in the Grade 3 B.C. Derby and gets a significant amount of weight off in his first try with older horses. He still has to prove he can go this far but he's in very good hands and Penney doesn't usually make the trip across the border unless he thinks he has a good shot at winning. SENOR ROJO is undefeated at the distance with a win in this race last year and also in the $75,000 Speed to Spare at Northlands two back. At least we know he can go this far and it is easy to toss his race in the Churchill because of the slow pace. CREW LEADER may have bounced when he came back in the Churchill after just a couple of weeks rest following his decent effort in the Grade 2 Longacres Mile. No surprise if he rebounds with a big effort here. WINNING MACHINE won the B. C. Derby in his only start here and he is coming off a big performance in his last start at Emerald Downs.

RACE TEN: EXCLUSIVE CASH really hasn't run a bad race all year and she appeared to be full of run when she had to steady while being stuck down on the rail on the stretch turn in her latest. She gets off the rail here and could be tough to handle with a clean trip. BE M TEE comes out of the same race and she dueled the whole way before giving it up late. She can stalk, though, and could get a nice trip from just off speed that probably isn't going to last. DORY got away poorly in the same race and could make some noise if she gets away a little better. She also gets in light and could be ready for a peak performance in the third start of her current form cycle. INVESTSOURCE figures to be heard from late and should be considered for the exotics.

RACE ELEVEN:  TRIBUNAL CROWN has the kind of tactical speed that wins a lot of races here, owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and should get a nice trip from her inside post. She looks like the one to beat in the final race of the meet. MAJESTIC WOMAN just missed as the chalk in a similar race and once again looks like a threat from on or just off the pace. ALLUSHA appears to be headed in the right direction and could be ready for a big effort in her third start back. She is dropping to a new low, moves from outside to inside and retains Hamel who might need this win to edge Gutierrez for leading rider. LOVE N PEACE should be considered for the exotics.