Race Analysis - Saturday, July 2

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: NORTHWAY will appreciate the drop into a conditional claimer after fading going longer with open company. He hasn't won sprinting but he has come close enough and the last time he ran with conditional claimers he was a very easy winner. DECLAN DOWNS has worked well enough leading up to his first race since he won his first start of the year April 16. He can obviously fire fresh and he has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post. DEE'S VICTOR had a rough trip when he was heavily favored at this level two back and then was overmatched when he stepped up to face open $12,5000 claimers after being claimed. He fits a lot better with these and both of his wins have come sprinting so he should appreciate the shorter distance.

RACE TWO:  SEMINOLE BRAVE set fast fractions and kept on rolling in a similar race and once again he figures to be the controlling speed with Dunn retaining the mount at a feathery 110 pounds. He has had plenty of time to recover and he is a former stakes winner so it shouldn't be a surprise if he comes back with another strong performance. CHEROKEE NOTION has done his best work from a stalking position but he was very sharp and battled with the top pick through a very fast first quarter. Gutierrez tried to ease him off the pace but the damage was already done. Can't see him dueling and sticking but he could be dangerous if he is a bit more settled early. POP ARTIST goes for his fourth in a row and could get it if the top two do hook up early. This is a big step up, though, and things will have to fall his way to keep the winning streak going.

RACE THREE:  TWOBIT'N BILLIE came up a bit short in her first route attempt this year and should be ready to go with a solid three-turn race behind here. She should be able to control the tempo early and then finish them off late. CHILECITO won two races at this distance here last year and tuned up for this with a decent effort versus tougher going a mile at Emerald. She is versatile and can either sit just off the top pick or come from off of it if other speed shows up. SASSY CASEY saved ground and closed strongly to finish third behind TWOBIT'N BILLIE and once again figures to be heard from late. SHELBYANN could be the sleeper. She made a strong middle move while going wide before tiring in the stretch and figures to move forward in her second straight route.

RACE FOUR:  DISTORTED GLAMOUR takes a substantial drop in class and if all is reasonably well he should be able to handle this group. He couldn't keep up with extremely fast fractions in his latest but he will either be the one they have to catch or he can stalk LOGANDALE who will likely be sent from his inside post. LOGANDALE posted a career best Beyer Speed Figure when he romped over bottom-level conditional claimers in his latest and he is lightly raced so it wouldn't be a complete shock to see him move forward. Everything coming out of the Milburn barn seems to be firing on all cylinders right now. ELUSIVE WAYS is another lightly raced 5-year-old that was an easy winner of his last start and doesn't look out of line with the slight jump up in class. He has been off for almost two months but he looked pretty sharp in is half-mile move June 19 and a hot-riding Hamel is attracted.

RACE FIVE:  AQUATIC owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field and she earned it in her latest while facing older fillies and mares. She is back with 3-year-olds only and if she can stay in touch early she should be able wear them down late. G ITS LATE has been second in two straight races at this level and appears to be the main speed. She could be gone if she clears early. SKOPA has shown a lot of improvement with Dunn aboard in her last two starts and could be dangerous if she leaves the starting gate a little better. Not sure the shape of the race will work in her favor but she finished a length behind G ITS LATE in her first try with winners and she does appear to be headed in the right direction. DOT'S SILVER STAR ran well in both of her races at Portland Meadows and picked things up in her latest work. She could be live coming off the bench.

RACE SIX:  COUNTING ON YOU went pretty wide around the first turn while forcing an honest pace and then held on well to narrowly lose a $10,000 maiden race last Sunday. She should be tough to handle with the drop to bottoms and the move to an inside post. The barn doesn't usually bring them back this quickly but over the past five years Taylor has a 30 percent strike rate when he brings them back in a week or less. GRACEFUL CAPTAIN got squeezed early and then made a decent move late in a similar race. She also has an excuse in her first start this year and could be set for a big effort in the third start of her current form cycle. POLLIWOG HILL cuts back to a sprint and adds blinkers for a trainer that has solid stats in both categories.

RACE SEVEN:  PIGTAILS gets to stretch out for the first time since she upset the Fantasy last year and she will certainly appreciate the easier company. She finished last in the Emerald Downs but it was a quickly run race and she earned her career best Beyer Speed Figure. Her figures have improved in every start this year and she could be sitting on a big effort with the move to what appears to be her best distance. TECOLOTE has improved quite a bit lately and considering her breeding it wasn't surprising she handled a middle distance fairly well when she tried it in her latest. Gutierrez sticks and he figures to have her involved right from the start. ONE BAD ROMANCE won a key maiden race in her last start at Hollywood Park May 22 and she also ran well over dirt at Santa Anita. She should fit with these and the only concern is there is just a single half-mile work showing since she ran over a month ago. Hamel is attracted, though, and her new trainer is winning at a 42 percent clip at the meet.

RACE EIGHT:  TICK ME OFF probably wants more distance but she has won a couple of sprints in her career and she easily has the best current form in the field. If she can stay in touch early she should be able to wear down the front runners. The pace figures to be moderate and that should help DRAFTING FOR SPEED who is dropping after chasing honest fractions in her latest. She gets in light and figures to be involved right from the start. DESTINYSSILVERLACE hasn't been able to keep up with males in back to back abbreviated sprints but she ran well going this distance in her first start of the year and she should appreciate being back with her own sex.