Race Analysis - Friday, July 1

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: MASS FLORA was an easy winner for $12,500 and then found $25,000 company beyond her reach in her latest. This is a better fit for her and the only concern is that she is going to have to deal with plenty of other speed. If she can stalk she can win. If not it could set up nicely for ICECAP who cuts back to a sprint after a decent versus much tougher in her first try at a middle distance. She closed with good speed in her previous sprint and there is an excellent chance the speed will be coming back to her. NUJ NUJ WINK WINK is the only three-time winner in the field and she has been freshened by a trainer that puts up solid numbers when he brings them back from this type of layoff. She gets in with a feather and could be dangerous if she clears early from her inside post.

RACE TWO: EPICUREAN couldn't catch a horse that set fast fractions and kept going in her latest but she earned a decent Beyer Speed Figure and a similar effort should be good enough. She can stalk and there should be enough speed to set her up. TAMARINDA faded after forcing the issue early in the same race and if she breaks alertly she could be the one they have to catch. BEAUTIFUL BREEZE romped over easier in her first two starts at the meet and has been on the sidelines since. She had a busy winter so it is possible her trainer wanted to freshen her up a bit and she looked pretty sharp when she worked a bullet five furlongs last Friday. She is stepping up but she doesn't look out of place. INCLUDE THE GRAND hasn't shown her usual stuff in three starts this year but she was claimed out of her latest by a trainer that puts up decent numbers when she runs them back the first time.

RACE THREE:  EL AGUILA REAL ran a much improved race in his latest and with his good speed he could be dangerous in his first try at a middle distance. He drew the rail where he should easily make the lead and he is a half-brother to three-time router winner Therussianrocket so it wouldn't be surprising if he takes them the whole way. He will also appreciate the easier company with the drop. CASH LAND ran okay the only time he tried to go around three turns and it was in a stakes race. He will be running without blinkers for the first time and maybe the change will help turn him around. His works have been solid and his trainer has been pretty hot lately. O'GEORGE steps up after winning his third in a row and acts like a horse that will handle a middle distance. His dam went unplaced in her only route attempt there are no route-winning sibs to report, though.

RACE FOUR:  FULL POWER AHEAD looked good winning a cheaper nonwinners of the year going this far in his latest and should be able to stand the small jump in class. His tactical speed in a race where they probably won't be going very fast early could give him an edge over GREAT PRINCE who looks like the main threat. GREAT PRINCE seemed to be heading in the right directions prior to his dull effort in his latest and maybe he just didn't care for the wet conditions. They also went pretty fast early and he'll appreciate the easier company he is facing here. Perez sticks with MARKET FLAIR who also looks live but no complaints with Cardenas picking up the mount. OLAXSA has been part of the tri in 8 of 11 at the distance and is coming off of another solid effort at this level. Use him in the exotics.

RACE FIVE:  FULL TIME DUKE cuts back to a sprint after he looked a bit uncomfortable when they tried to rate him in his first attempt at a middle distance. He is reunited with Alvarado who will likely put him right on the lead and see if he can take them the whole way. He couldn't in his previous sprint but he should be set up perfectly now and he is taking a significant drop. RUNAWAY REGGIE has been right there in both of his races at this level and is an obvious threat to break through in his third start. He has enough speed to take advantage of his inside draw and the two sharp works allay any concerns about him being away for over a month. GOODY FOUR FEET was going to be a heavy favorite in a 1 1/16 miles race at this level last Sunday but was scratched by the stewards. He won't mind the move back to a sprint and he has enough speed to stay in touch early.

RACE SIX:  MINSTREL'S TIME looked like he might make a move when he had to steady just past the three-eighths pole in his latest. He was also eased off the pace after he broke sharply and it wouldn't be surprising to see Hamel let him run a bit more early. He is taking the big drop and the past five years his trainer has a 40 percent strike rate with horses moving from a maiden special weight race to maiden claiming. His five-furlong move in :58.80 seconds June 21 is encouragement enough. NINE O'CLOCK GUN showed more speed in his latest and then held on well to finish second at this level. He is going to have to deal with more speed here but he has passed horses before and he might get a nice trip from just off of what could be a lively battle up front. CAT'S AXE will likely be involved early and he could take them a long way if he clears early from his inside post. GENERAL CUSTER has been working well enough for a trainer that can have them ready to go first time.

RACE SEVEN:  DELTA BOUQUE could be worth a look at what should be a decent price. She is reunited with Alvarado who has been aboard for both of her wins and both times he was able to put her on the lead. There isn't a lot of apparent speed in the field and if he can get her on top early she just might hang around for a long time. BESPOKE is the logical choice in this $3,000 nonwinners of three lifetime. She is coming off of two solid efforts for the same condition at $7,500 and she should be able stay pretty close to what figures to be a moderate pace. She could also be ready for a peak effort in the third start of her current form cycle. TRIBAL SECRET has improved her Beyer Speed Figures in her last two races and should be considered for the exotics. GOLDEN RATIO figures to move forward in her second start of the year and should also be considered for the exotics.

RACE EIGHT:  CREW LEADER earned a meet-high 95 Beyer Speed Figure for his dazzling performance in his latest sprint and we know he can go long from his second place finish in the Grade 3 B.C. Derby last year. He seems to have improved quite a bit as a 4-year-old and if he comes close to posting the same kind of figure he did in his latest he is going to be tough to beat. He will have to be at his best to beat a very sharp ST LIAMS HALO who has been impressive in both of his wins this year. ST LIAMS HALO won a middle distance race on turf last year so the added distance shouldn't be a problem. SENOR ROJO shows up just about every time and there should be an honest enough pace to set up his good late move. ALMOST TIME got caught behind a slow pace in his latest sprint and could do some damage with the move to a distance he clearly handles well.

RACE NINE:  INHISGLORY came back with a bullet five-furlong move following his sharp win sprinting in the $50,000 River Rock and acts like a horse that should handle a middle distance. His lone sibling is a two-time route winner so the pedigree is there. He also has good tactical speed and Hamel should be able to work out a nice trip from his inside post. His stablemate, TOO MUCH DIRT, will appreciate what should be an honest pace. He came from well back to win his latest route and he also won the $52,000 Ascot Graduation in his only other attempt at the distance. JUMP UP AND KISSME looks like the main speed and could take them a long way if he is allowed to set moderate fractions. DOUBLE JACK might have something to say about that, however. ARRAIGNMENT couldn't hold off TOO MUCH DIRT last time but it was his first route and if Alvarado can ease him off of what should be a lively pace he might have something to say about the outcome.