Race Analysis - BC CUP - Monday, August 1

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: HERESCOMELUCKY had to steady slightly when he tried to get through along the rail at the quarter-pole in the New Westminster and was still able to regroup, go around and win. He could be tough to handle with a clean trip. JOINT CHOICE was an easy winner in his second start going 3 1/2 furlongs and could be the one they have to catch. He came back with a strong five-furlong move July 24 and most of his siblings are multiple winners including stakes placed Haunting You who won eight sprints. ROYAL VICTOR ran evenly when he debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight race July 17 and could take a big step forward in his second start.

RACE TWO; DON'TWAITFORME was a pretty easy winner when he returned from a long layoff July 5 and he came back with two sharp works so he could be ready to take a big step forward in his second start back. He has never been worse than second in his career and when he was turned out last year with an abscess in his foot he was the top-rated 3-year-old at Hastings. Not sure what kind of trip he is going to get from the rail but he's versatile and Perez certainly knows him well enough. CHEROKEE NOTION is as honest as they come and should be able to stalk what figures to be a lively pace. CLASSIC ALLEY KAT wasn't tested while winning three straight sprint stakes over fillies and mares this year and she set ridiculous fractions and was still able to hold on to finish second when she went around three turns in the Strawberry Morn. This will be a serious test for her but she may be able to pass it.

RACE THREE:  FUN AGAIN takes the plunge for a trainer who the past five years has a 23 percent strike rate with horses she is dropping by 50 percent or more. FUN AGAIN couldn't keep up to a fast pace in her latest but she easily has the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field and if she runs her usual race she will be tough to beat. STEPHANOTIS LUCK has been working well enough for a trainer that can have them ready to go first time and is also winning races at a high rate this year. If she can run at all she should be able to make some kind of impact with this group. INSATIABLE LOVE looked like she was going to make some noise when she got off the rail at the quarter-pole in her latest but then backed up. She ran a lot better in her first two starts so you might want to give her another chance.

RACE FOUR: WANDO WOMAN is a stand out. She beat tougher open company in her last two starts and she won't mind the slightly longer distance. She is not going to have the same kind of fractions to work with here but there appears to be enough speed to set her up and she just has too big of a class edge over these. DEAREST PRINCESS ran a better race in her latest and the multiple stakes winner could be getting back on track. Despite the improved effort she was still no match for the top pick last time, however. DASHING DAISY has never been better but she has been beating up on a lot easier and she still has to prove she can go this far.

RACE FIVE; GABIGOTHERWAY set very fast fractions and kept on motoring when she debuted in a maiden special weight race that included colts and geldings July 17. She could take a big step forward in her second start and being a half-sister to $310K 10-time winner Geniver she has a right to be a good one. SUNNYSIDE GAL chased the sensational Claresmiezie in two straight races and will appreciate facing what figures to be much easier company here. She can also stalk and it is possible the top pick will have to deal with other speed. HILLINGDON had a rough trip in her debut, is bred to be a good one, and could make some noise with a clean trip. ELEADORA appears to have some talent but ran greenly when she debuted in the Lassie. She could be the sleeper.

RACE SIX: SUPER STEVE set very fast fractions when he just missed to a much tougher group going this far in his latest and if can come anwhere close to his strong performance they aren't going to beat him. The only negative is the additional seven pounds he will be carrying but he carried a similar weight going 1 1/8 miles at Turf Paradise earlier this year. ORCHID'S SILVER may have moved too soon in the same race SUPER STEVE exits and could be dangerous with a better timed move. It is also possible she just doesn't want to go this far. OLAXSA is a bit of a plodder but he tries just about every time and he plodded his way to a third-place finish in this race last year. He looked pretty sharp in his win over easier July 16 and at the least he should be part of any exotics ticket.

RACE SEVEN: TECOLOTE chased a fast pace before giving way late in Camino's win July 2 and she came back to work a bullet five-furlongs in :59.80 seconds July 23. She might be more settled with the blinkers coming off and she figures to get a nice stalking trip behind speed that doesn't figure to last. VICTORY WITH CLASS is clearly the class of the field but not sure she really wants to go this far. She is a half-sister to the speedy Classic Alley Kat - see the second race - but she ran okay in her first try going around three turns in the Supernaturel and she has worked well since. She is clearly the one to beat. CAMINO mad a strong move to win her latest route and a similar effort would put her right in the mix. With her running style she is going to need a break or two along the way in this 11-horse field, however.

RACE EIGHT: JUMP UP AND KISSME should win this. He showed his connections a couple of things in his very good race in the Chris Loseth. He proved he can rate and he also showed that he can handle a middle distance. He hasn't run a bad race in his career and anything close to his second to Inhisglory in the Loseth makes him an easy winner. TOO MUCH DIRT didn't fire his best shot in the Loseth but he is a proven stakes winner going this far and he may have bounced off of his win in a $50K optional race in his previous start. A deep closer, he should also have an honest pace to work with. TARUE GRIT ran an improved race in his latest and is reunited with Gutierrez who was aboard for his only win. He could spice up the exotics.

RACE NINE: Take your pick between SPAGHETTI MOUSE who has won eight times going this distance, or ALMOST TIME, who has seven wins sprinting while winning just once going around three turns and is 0 for 2 at a mile and an eighth. ALMOST TIME finished in front of SPAGHETTI MOUSE in the Lieutenant Governors' and is clearly the sharpest horse in the field so we won't be shocked if he is the winner. Nonetheless, SPAGHETTI MOUSE could get a nice trip from just off of speed that probably won't last and we are also kind of hoping SPAGEHTTI MOUSE will win this because if he doesn't he is going to have a hard time becoming the first B.C-bred millionaire. MAJESTICALITY showed surprising speed in his latest route which is a good sign that he could be coming up to a big effort. The 2010 Grade 3 B.C. Derby winner will probably drop back early and make his usual late run. He could get up in time of things fall his way.

RACE TEN: CAN'T WAIT FOREVER looked good winning his first start in over a year and he came back with a very good half-mile breeze July 28 so there is a good chance he'll move forward instead of bouncing. MARKETIZE has been in the mix in all of his races this year and is overdue to win a race. He should have an honest pace to work with and he won't mind the move back to a sprint and the easier company. WINDY DAY wants more distance but he has been part of the tri in 12 of his last 13 starts and should be part of any exotics ticket. PASSION RED just missed to nine-time sprint winner Evaluate in a starter race for horses that ran on the “B” circuit in B.C. this year and he certainly fits with these.