Race Analysis for September 6
Analysis by Randy GouldingRACE ONE: ORIENTATER catches a pretty weak group with the drop to bottoms and if you toss her race against Finality Philly who is running in the $50,000 Hong Kong Jockey Club later in the card, she really hasn't run a bad race. If she breaks alertly from her inside post she is going to be very tough to beat. BLUE THE SAIL just missed in her latest and is dropping to a new low. She owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and is the obvious threat to the top pick. MACLOGAN has decent tactical speed and should get a good trip from just off of speed that probably won't last. Consider her for the exotics at what should be a decent price.
RACE TWO: AFTERNOON RAIN figures to move forward in his second start for a trainer that has solid stats with second time shooters - 22 percent over the past five years. He chased an honest pace while going three wide when he was favored in his debut and he'll appreciate the drop into a maiden claiming race. TAI SHAN just missed the only time he ran for a tag and he comes out of a very fast race so we'll forgive him for finishing so far back. Any of his previous races point to him as a serious player. TIMEFORACOLDONE just missed at this level in his latest but not sure why it has taken him so long to make it back to the races and he was a vet scratch on Aug. 15. Nonetheless, he did come back to work a strong five-furlongs and is in good hands. No surprise if he takes them all the way.
RACE THREE: NUMAANY has won both of his starts at the distance and he carried this much weight going farther last year so he should be able to handle the heavy impost. He seems to be on top of his game right now and he should be tough to handle at what will likely be a very short price. FINALLY KRUISIN made up a lot of ground but couldn't get past the top pick last time and once again he is going to have his work cut out. He is a very sharp horse right now and appears to be the main threat. KALOOKAN BOSS also got pretty far behind before making a bit of a late move in the same race. He could take a big step forward in the third start of his current form cycle and second straight endurance race.
RACE FOUR: SHEZA FOXY JACKPOT found stakes company too tough to deal with in two straight starts and should appreciate the drop back into the claiming ranks. Her best races have been on synthetic surfaces but she did win a two turn sprint at Fairplex on dirt and most of her races look good enough to win this. She has been away for almost two months but over the past five years Essex has a 16 percent strike rate when he brings them back in this time period. STORM VIXEN has also been away for a while but she has worked well enough for her return and romped when she came off of a longer layoff this spring. The horse that beat her on June 6 went on to win her next three starts in stakes races at Northlands Park. GRASS ROOTS has the best current form and is capable of closing into what should be an honest pace.
RACE FIVE: KAWEAH PRINCESS is overdue to win a race this year and this looks like the spot for her to get over the hump. She ran into the top two older fillies or mares in her four starts here and then ran a big race to finish a close third in the $75,000 City of Edmonton at Northlands in her latest. She has good tactical speed and should get a perfect trip from just off speed that doesn't figure to last. WIND STORM proved she can route with her win in the B.C. Cup Distaff and she won't mind the slightly shorter distance. BORGATELLO won't have the same kid of set up she had in her win in a $35K optional race Aug. 14 but she posted two solid Beyer Speed Figures in both of her routes and being lightly raced there could be a lot of upside potential here.
RACE SIX: BURJ DUBAI was sensational in both of his sprints here and he was in a good striking position before he reportedly flipped his palate in the Longacres Mile. The move back to a sprint won't hurt and he'll also appreciate the easier company he's facing here. ALMOST TIME comes into this off of a solid effort in the Longacres Mile and he should have plenty of speed to run at. He is also undefeated over wet tracks and there is rain in the forecast. SEMINOLE BRAVE got off to a poor start when he was favored in his latest sprint at Emerald Downs and should get a nice trip from a stalking position in this speed-laden field. In his last sprint here he came close to beating the top pick and he is a proven stakes winner at the distance.
RACE SEVEN: DEAREST PRINCESS got stuck with a tough post but still ran a decent race after breaking a step slow in the $75,000 Washington Oaks and should be happy to be back at her home course where she has won three of four at the current meet. She has also won both of her starts at the distance. OTERO looked like she was going to make a strong move in the Washington Oaks but flattened out in the stretch. She hasn't been worse than second in any of her starts with her own age group at this track and she figures to save a lot of ground leaving from the inside post. SOUL CUSTODY appears to be heading in the right direction and beat the top two picks while finishing third in the Washington Oaks. She is still eligible for a non-winners of two, however, and she is the one doing the shipping today.
RACE EIGHT: DON'TWAITFORME ran a big race to just miss behind CHEROKEE NOTION when he stretched out for the first time and he could take a big step forward in his second route. He is making just his fifth career start so there is certainly a lot of room for him to improve. He has good tactical speed and he figures to get a clean trip from his inside post if he breaks alertly. AIN is another one with potential and he should appreciate what figures to be a lively pace. He is still a maiden but he owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field and it came in his last race at Emerald Downs where he made up a lot of ground to finish second in the Emerald Downs Derby so he does have stakes credentials. CHEROKEE NOTION beat the top pick when they met in the Stellar's Jay but he has only had one work since and he missed some training when he came down with a mild case of colic at Northlands Park when he shipped to Edmonton to run in the Canadian Derby.
RACE NINE: VYING FOR VICTORY forced quick fractions before tiring in a much improved effort in his second start and could take them all the way if he breaks alertly. Wilson lands here when he had the option of riding a very live looking TARUE GRIT and we'll assume he made the right choice. TARUE GRIT has picked it up in his last couple of starts and he came back with a sharp five-furlong move following his second place finish in a $20K maiden race in his latest. He is going to have to deal with faster fractions here and he is stepping up to face straight maidens. Nonetheless, he does have the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field and the rider with the best win percentage at the meet is attracted. BLITZEN'S FLASH is a half-brother to $280K multiple stakes winner Slewpast and should appreciate the added distance after an improved effort in his second start. He might not get the trip from his outside post, however.
