Race Analysis for BC Derby - Sunday, September 26

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: YOOROCK GAL just missed to UPPER CRUST in a similar race Sept. 12 but YOOROCK GAL had to deal with a lot more speed and she shouldn’t have to go as fast during the early stages here. She won her two previous races when she cleared early and she appears to be a lot quicker than the other potential speed who just happens to come out of the same barn. UPPER CRUST has picked things up in her last four races and if a duel does develop she could win her second in a row. She does have a very nice pedigree and it is possible she is just starting to put it all together. TAMARINDA should get a stalking trip from just off of Yoorock Gal and could hang around long enough to pick up a slice.

RACE TWO: TAI SHAN cuts his price in half and he easily has the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field. He has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post and if he breaks alertly he should be tough to handle. P S FORGET ME NOT made a strong middle move and then tired when he debuted in a similar race Sept. 11 and he should move forward in his second start. Fuentes rode Tai Shan in all of his previous races and he lands here. O’GEORGE gets in light and could be dangerous if he clears early. MR COOPER took a big step forward when he went around two turns in his second start and could grab a slice if he can avoid a wide trip from his outside post.

RACE THREE: NUMAANY had to deal with other speed in his last two marathons but it looks like he should be able to dictate the pace here and could be hard to get past. He also gets a pound off while FINALLY CRUISIN picks up a couple and a three-pound swing could mean something going this far. FINALLY CRUISIN has found his niche as a marathon horse and he showed more tactical speed in his latest so he should be able to stay in touch early. He is on top of his game right now so no surprise if he beats the top pick. MILITARY DEPUTY seems to like this track when it comes up wet and he could be worth a look if the weather report is correct. WILD YOUNG COWBOY looked very strong at the end of his latest win at Northlands and he won’t mind the move to a slightly shorter distance.

RACE FOUR: SPAGHETTI MOUSE broke poorly and then was stuck behind a moderate pace when he finished fourth as the heavy chalk in his latest and could make amends if he leaves there running in a race he should be able to control from start to finish. He looked as eager as ever when he came back with a solid five-furlong breeze Sept. 1. ALMOST TIME finished full of run in the Grade 3 Longacres Mile and he could get up in time if the Mouse does get carried away up front. TRICK OF THE NORTH took advantage of a quick pace to beat the top pick in the B.C. Cup Classic but it is hard to see the same type of scenario here. He should run better than he did in the Speed to Spare at Northlands Park, however.

RACE FIVE: DISTORTED GLAMOUR figures to move forward in his second start back following a lengthy layoff, and it is certainly encouraging to see Baze accept the mount. He also was forced to go wide when FOREST PRINCE drifted out on the stretch turn plus his trainer has solid stats with horses making their second start back - 23 percent winners with the last 13 starters. BURJ DUBAI was on heels going into the first turn and then may have moved too soon while going wide in the same race. He could rebound with a better trip and he would probably be tough to handle if he left there running. That is a big if, however. BOUNDLESS CAT saved a lot of ground while BURJ DUBAI was going wide and picked up the pieces late. Not sure if he'll get the perfect trip again but he also figures to move forward in his second start following a layoff and once again there should be an honest pace for him to work with.

RACE SIX: BESPOKE ran a big race when she cut back to a sprint in her latest and could be tough to handle in her second straight race at the distance. She easily has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and she has enough tactical speed to stay in touch with what should be an honest pace. HABERDASHER will likely be the one they are chasing and she figures to be sharp coming off of a good effort in an abbreviated sprint. It is supposed to be wet and it is hard to ignore her romp in a $35,000 maiden race in New York the only time she ran over a sloppy track. LAURA'S JOURNEY made a nice middle move before tiring in her first start in close to three months and could take a big step forward in her second start back. COATLICUE posted a decent Beyer Speed Figure for her win over $10K maidens and is certainly in the right spot for her first try with winners. She drew a tough post, however.

RACE SEVEN: LOOKOUT DUBAI finished up his six-furlong work on Sept. 19 with a strong :24.40 seconds quarter and appears to be set for a big effort in his first try going around three turns. He is the first foal out of a mare that won going long and short and if he breaks alertly he should get a nice trip from either a stalking position or possibly on the lead. TOO MUCH DIRT is a full-brother to multiple route stakes winner Excited Miss and could take a big step forward in his first try at a middle distance with Baze riding. CASH LAND closed with a rush in the CTHS Sales Stakes and he is half-brother to three route winners. He's worth taking a close look at what should be a decent price. OUTOFTHECLOUDS is an obvious contender off of his smart win in the CTHS Sales Stakes but his pedigree suggests he's better suited sprinting. His trainer does a tremendous job with horses stretching out for the first time, though.

RACE EIGHT: CREW LEADER might be worth playing at what should be a big price in a race where there are no standouts. He was picking up horses without being asked in the Richmond Derby Trial and when he was set down he responded immediately but then had to check hard when he had nowhere to go. He figures to move forward in his second try going around three turns and could be dangerous with a clear trip. CHEROKEE NOTION missed some training when he shipped to Edmonton for the Canadian Derby but had to pass the race when he came down with a mild case of colic. He could take a big step forward off of his second place finish in the Richmond Derby Trial and his chances certainly improved when Baze accepted the mount. PRINCE INTENT owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and he looked full of himself when he worked five-furlongs on Sept. 19. CHARTERHILL is coming up to the race off of a very good second behind an older Grade 3 winner but he drew the outside post and could get hung out going into the first turn.

RACE NINE: BOSCO'S QWIK showed a bit more early speed in his latest and it could be a sign he is coming up to a peak performance. He easily owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and a repeat of his latest will probably be good enough. PETE'S THE NAME finished with good speed when he debuted in an abbreviated sprint and should move forward with a race under his belt. He loses the leading rider to ZEKES' BEST TRICK but Perez has had a solid meet in his first year here. ZEKES' BEST TRICK was making a strong late move but had to check and lost a lot of momentum at the top of the stretch in his latest. He could be dangerous with a clean trip. YOO DA BOSS broke poorly in the same race and could make some noise in his second start.