Analysis for July 17

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: AIN will probably be better when he goes long but he finished full of run after walking out of the gate in his debut and if he can stay in touch early he should be able to wear them down late. He had a very fast pace to work with last time and while they probably won't be going as fast here, his stablemate THAT'S LUCKY should ensure an honest enough pace. BRED ROYAL was favored in the same race and held on well to finish third after being reasonably close to the lead early. The shape of the race could work in his favor and if the track is favoring speed he could have a big edge. THAT'S LUCKY looks like the one they'll be chasing and he could take them a long way if he gets away on his own. His dam was a stakes winner and her only other foal has won a couple of races and earned $127K. CONTREVE is a half-brother to $945K multiple Grade 1 winner Folklore but has been working slowly and comes out of a barn that isn't noted for having them fully cranked first time out.

RACE TWO: FOXY LIKE A CAT will appreciate the move to a distance she has won 4 of 9 starts at and she ran a pretty good race in her latest sprint for a slightly higher price. She will have to deal with other speed but it looks like she'll still be able to clear and if she does she could take them the whole way. MIA DOLCE ran well to finish second in her lone try going this far and then ran a dull race behind Foxy Like A Cat in her latest sprint. She has enough speed to take advantage of her inside post and should get a nice trip from a stalking position. MUD SWEAT 'N TEARS came back with a solid 5-furlong work after a good effort in her first start for a trainer that is having a solid meet with her small stable. She has the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance - although it did come on a synthetic surface - and could make some noise in her first try going around three-turns.

RACE THREE: RAINBOWSINTHEWOOD was ambitiously placed in her first two starts this year so it was no surprise she wasn't much of a factor either time. She drops into a realistic spot and from the looks of her latest work she should be ready to go despite the layoff. The big concern is that her trainer is 0 for 9 with horses dropping from allowance to claiming over the past five years. Nonetheless, she still looks like the one to beat. DESTINY'S HOME has been second in 3 of 4 starts at the distance and has worked sharply since she finished fourth to tougher on June 13. KATELLIENA has won her last two versus cheaper but she certainly fits at this level and is capable of stalking what could be an honest pace. GO SWEETLY will likely be the one they are chasing in her first try at a middle distance and a few of her siblings have won going long so it wouldn't be surprising if she took them a long way.

RACE FOUR: SPRING SOIREE cuts back to a sprint after forcing the issue in her first try going longer and although she didn't come close to the winner she wasn't too far off the second horse and she did finish a clear third. She will appreciate the much easier company she is facing here and if she can stay in touch with MACLOGAN she should be able to wear her down late. MACLOGAN looked like she was home and cooled out in her latest but struggled in the last sixteenth to finish third in a similar race. Unless one of the first time starters has any speed she figures to get a similar trip from either on the lead or sitting just off of what will be a very slow pace. THESEFOOLISHTHINGS was unruly in the gate and then got off to a poor start in her latest. She did make a strong late move and if she can leave there running she could have a big say in the final outcome.

RACE FIVE: DOUBLIN THE GOLD looks like the best speed in the field and could take them a long way if he breaks alertly. He tired after chasing an honest pace in his latest but it looks like he'll be the one they have to go around here. MAGIC DEVIL made his debut in the same race and he walked out of the gate but showed a bit of late run when he settled into stride. He figures to move forward in his second start and is certainly playable in what appears to be a wide-open event. PARTY PROSPECTOR has been part of the super in 4 of his 5 starts and with his decent tactical speed he should get a nice trip from just off of the top pick. AIMING FOR GLORY broke sideways and got bumped around a bit when he was favored in his latest and could make amends if he leaves there running.

RACE SIX: NUMAANY appears to be a complete standout. He dominated the endurance series last year and his connections have protected him while waiting for the starter allowance races to start. He worked a solid half-mile on July 10 and if he comes close to his usual race he is going to be very tough to beat. MOSCATO ships in from Emerald Downs where he has been running decent races with $10 to $12,500 claimers and the horse that won his latest is a stakes winner that came back to finish second in a $25K optional sprint July 10. He has enough speed to ensure a good trip from his inside post and the only concern is that he has never gone this distance before and the one time he tried a mile and a quarter he tired after forcing the pace in an $8K starter race at Fresno. GREAT PRINCE has been on quite a roll this year and has been part of the tri in both of his races at the distance. Use him in the exotics.

RACE SEVEN: SUMMER SONG improved her record to five wins from six starts at the distance when she came from last to capture the Vancouver Sun July 1 and once again she should have an honest pace to work with. She is also versatile and can lay a lot closer if she has to. KAWEAH PRINCESS is as honest as they come and once again had to settle for second money for the fourth race in a row when Summer Song blew by her in the stretch. She figures to get a similar trip just off of INCLUDE THE GRAND and once again will have to deal with the late move of a very sharp Summer Song. OTERO surprisingly went right to front when she stretched out for the first time and she won't have to worry about that here with Include the Grand in the field. She is facing older horses but she has every right to improve in her second try at the distance and she'll be able to settle into a stalking position instead of doing all the hard work early.

RACE EIGHT: POP posted a solid Beyer Speed Figure when she led right from the start in her debut and then was through early when she couldn't make the lead when she tried $45K optional fillies in her second start. The sudden drop is obvious a concern but she's in good hands and if she can clear early she could be gone. WATCHYOURSTEP has come close to winning her last two at this level and she figures to be sitting just off of the top pick who is a bit suspect. SHEL B QUICK sheds some weight with Pacheco taking the call and she is adding blinkers following a solid effort where she took the lead at the top of the stretch but gave it up in the last few jumps. She appears to be coming up to a big race and is certainly playable at what could be a decent price. EPICUREAN made a strong late run to win a bottom level maiden race and with all of the potential speed it could set up nicely for her.