Race Analysis July 16

By Randy Goulding


RACE ONE: VICTIM OF LOVE has won three of four at the distance and he looked pretty sharp when he earned a bullet for his three-furlong move in :34.40 seconds on June 27. He lost to BATTLE OF HASTINGS the last time they met but he seems to be coming into this in excellent shape while BATTLE OF HASTINGS appears to be regressing. BATTLE OF HASTINGS should appreciate the cutback to this distance after giving it up in his last three going longer and is obviously a threat if the shows up with his best stuff. The very fast BELLY BUTTON DAWN looked like she was gone when she opened up three-lengths the last time we saw her but she stopped suddenly and now it's been almost three months since she ran. The substantial drop is also a bit of a concern but her works have been solid for the past month and she only has to run a short distance.

RACE TWO: QUATCHI certainly benefitted from the very fast pace when he stretched out for the first time and he might not get the same kind of set up here. Nonetheless, that was a pretty strong performance in his first try going around three turns and it wouldn't be surprising to see him take a big step forward here. If he goes he'll be tough to beat. BERNIE THE BANDIT ran okay when he tried stakes horses going this far in the Ascot Graduation last year and he is dropping to a new low after a couple of useful sprints. The horse that finished second in his latest was an easy winner when he dropped to his level last weekend. ROSES FOR BEN held on well to finish third despite being up close to the quick pace in the same race QUATCHI exits and should get a nice trip from just off of what figures to be a slower pace.

RACE THREE: ALITAX didn't have much of a chance after he broke poorly when she was heavily favored in a similar race open to colts and geldings last Friday and could make amends if she leaves there running. Blinkers on could help in that regard and if she runs back to her very good second when she debuted for $10K in May they probably aren't going to beat her. J J'S ORCHID posted her career best Beyer Speed Figure when she cut back to this distance on June 18 and a similar effort puts her right in the mix. No works since she ran almost a month ago but they aren't going very far and she should be fit enough for a trainer that is winning races at a solid rate at the meet. MIDNIGHT VICTRESS adds Lasix so there is a good chance she bled in the same race J J's Orchid exits. She should definitely be fit enough with a strong 6 1/2 furlong work from the gate on June 26. Just not sure if she's fast enough.

RACE FOUR: MACONDO looked pretty sharp when he worked a bullet :59.80 seconds on July 4, gets in light and ran well enough when he finished fourth in the $107K Ascot Graduation going this distance as a 2-year-old last year. He could be the one in what appears to be a wide open event. SHINY DICE has done his best running from a stalking position so it was a bit surprising to see him dueling for the lead when he stretched out for the first time in his latest. He moves off of the rail, sheds seven pounds, and since there is more speed signed on here in the way of MOSEL RIVER, he figures to get the kind of trip he likes from slightly off the pace. NIKKOA is stepping up but he finished full of run in both of his last two races and just might appreciate the added distance.

RACE FIVE: CHEROKEE TEAR takes the plunge and although he hasn't won going this far he was competitive when he finished fourth in the 1 1/8 miles Sir Winston Churchill in 2008 and he also just missed in a $25K optional race last year. Obviously he has fallen a long way since then but he still split the field in his latest sprint and he should appreciate the much easier company he is facing here. VINTNER looked like he was going to blow by the front-runners when he made strong move heading into the stretch turn but they were walking up front and they had plenty left while he flattened going 3-wide. It has been a while since he actually won a race but he is dropping to a new low and he is reunited with Gutierrez who almost got him home two back. ORGANIST is facing a much tougher test today but he is stretching out for just the second time and once again he should be able to be involved early while not having to go all that fast.

RACE SIX: SASSY'S TREASURE came back to work a sharp half-mile following a very good second in her first start here at this level July 1. She adds Lasix, retains Alvarado who will likely have her involved right from the start, and she did win a race in Kamloops with a solid Beyer Speed Figure. BELLA AVIVA has been right there in back to back races versus tougher and is clearly the main threat. She also has good speed and Hamel should be able to put her in a good spot early despite leaving from an outside post. MY BLACK PEARL has forced the issue and stayed around a long time in her last three routes and could make some noise with the move back to a sprint. She also gets some weight off with Pacheco, who is off to a good start after arriving here last week, taking the call. SCANDNASIANSENSATN should also so appreciate the move back to a sprint after fading in her first try going long.

RACE SEVEN: POP ARTIST does his best running when he's outside horses and he figures to get a perfect stalking trip from his outside post. He saved a lot of ground in his latest start but most of the time he had horses outside of him and that shouldn't be the case here. SIR GALLANT has won 7 of 12 starts here and once again is the horse they are going to have to get past in the lane. He does have speed to deal with both inside and out but it shouldn't surprise anyone if he is up to the task. SOLDIERS RETURN won two in a row for this price before finishing third in a tougher spot June 12. He has been freshened for this and his bullet five-furlong move on July 9 is a good sign he is primed for a big effort coming off the bench.

RACE EIGHT: HABERDASHER will appreciate the much easier company she is facing here after trying to keep up with a runaway winner in a very fast race in her latest. She should be able to clear early and if she runs to her bullet half-mile move on July 10 she'll be tough to handle. ME AND I was full of run early but had nowhere to go when she came back from a layoff in her latest. She may have been tired from fighting her rider because she didn't show much when she finally had clear sailing. She is back with her own age group and she figures to move forward in just the third start of her career. TWOBIT'N BILLIE comes right back for the same price she won for on June 27 but this looks like a much tougher spot. Nonetheless, it is easy to poke holes in the top two and it is hard to knock a horse that has compiled a 2-1-3 record from 6 starts. At the very least she should be part of any exotics ticket.