Race Analysis - BC Cup

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: WINDY DAY has burned a lot of money in his last four starts but he is overdue to win and once again he looks like the one to beat. He has good tactical speed and should get a nice trip from a stalking position. He has finished second in his last three so it's not like he's running bad races. DUELLING PISTOL finished a length behind the top pick in his latest and a similar trip could be in the cards. He has just a couple of wins in his career so he looks a lot better underneath than on top. DREXEL ran a much improved race in his latest and could be dangerous if he gets away on his own.

RACE TWO: DEAREST PRINCESS has had a couple of solid six-furlong works since she won the Supernaturel and considering it was her first time going long she could take a big step forward here. She was also full of run while being stuck on the rail most of the way and the horse she beat came back to finish a very good third against the top older fillies and mares in the Strawberry Morn July 17. SWEET N SOUR should also move forward in her second route and she ran a big race to finish a close third the same race the top pick exits. She looked very comfortable when she worked a bullet six-furlongs last Sunday and she hasn't run a bad race all year. AUDZEEZEE has the pedigree to handle the distance and over the past 5 years her trainer has an 18 percent win rate with horses stretching out for the first time.

RACE THREE: ALMOST TIME should appreciate the move back to a sprint after forcing the pace and tiring in the Lieutenant Governors July 1. He also probably bounced a bit after posting a career best Beyer Speed Figure in the John Longden. There should be an honest pace for him to work with and he figures to pick them up late. WOOMBROOM EXPRESS won this race last year and he might not have cared for being eased into a stalking position in his latest. He likes to be ridden aggressively and he has the right man for the job with Alvarado taking over. SENSE OF HUMOR is tackling older horses for the first time but he appears to be fast and classy enough to contend for the top spot.

RACE FOUR: FINALLY KRUISIN has been facing much tougher and he looked good winning a second level allowance race on July 9. Along with the rest of the field he has never gone this far before but his mom could run all day and he'll appreciate the easier company he's facing. CLASSIC IDEALS finished third against open company for this condition July 17 and he has decent tactical speed so he should be sitting on or just off of what figures to be a slow pace. COUSIN WILBER has the second best last race Beyer Speed Figure behind Finally Kruisin and he is shedding nine pounds. He’s a half-brother to Ganbei, who will be the first or second choice in the B.C. Cup Classic, and he should be able to put his good tactical speed to use here.

RACE FIVE: SPAGHETTI MOUSE ran a huge race to finish second to Teide in the Lieutenant Governors and he has looked great in his subsequent works. He has finished in front of GANBEI in his last two starts and the potential shape of the race certainly figures to work in his favor. GANBEI feasted on a very fast pace in the S. W. Randall Plate and it is hard to imagine the same scenario unfolding here. He is also coming back pretty quickly after posting a career best Beyer Speed Figure and horses sometimes bounce in the same situation. Nonetheless, he is clearly the main threat. TRICK OF THE NORTH appears to be rounding into form but similar to last year's Classic where he finished third, the likely slow pace isn't going to help his chances.

RACE SIX: VICTORY WITH CLASS was a game winner in her debut going 3 1/2 furlongs and she worked a strong six-furlongs last Sunday so she should be fit enough to handle the added distance. She is a half-sister to Classic Alley Cat who has turned into a pretty nice sprinter with seven wins. NUJ NUJ WINK WINK just missed to the top pick and she was full of run at the end of her five-furlong move June 26. Wilson abandons her to ride the probable favorite EMBANKMENT who ran a big race to just miss in a six-furlong maiden special weight race July 9. EMBANKMENT would look a lot better if she didn't have just a single slow half-mile showing since she ran. Nonetheless, she's in good hands and she is the only horse in the field with a couple of races going around two turns.

RACE SEVEN: JUMP UP AND KISSME came back with a solid five-furlong move after his game win over Embankment in his debut and he has the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field. He could be the one in what appears to be a wide open race. CASH LAND came from last to win his debut and he showed a lot of maturity by not hesitating when he made his strong move from along the rail. He could move forward enough in his second start to pull off an upset. SMARTY FAWCETT took a big step forward when he went around two turns in his second start and could be ready for a big performance. The horse that beat him is a highly regarded Kentucky-bred filly. TOO MUCH DIRT picked things up in his latest work following his win July 3. He is a full-brother to multiple stakes winner Excited Miss who won the Debutante as a 2-year-old.

RACE EIGHT: DYNA STROLL looked good winning the Chris Loseth and he has won both of his starts at the distance. Once again he should have an honest pace to work with and he figures to move forward in his second straight route. If he does, he is going to be very tough to beat. SILLY FELLA finished fourth in the same race and he was in a good spot when he had to steady on the second turn. He has worked well since he ran and could be dangerous with a clean trip. VICTOR'S MAGIC has been right there in both of his races at the distance and he has enough tactical speed to take advantage of his inside post. TEXAS BUCCANEER has improved quite a bit since he stretched out in his last two starts and could be a factor from off the pace.

RACE NINE: AGAINST THE SKY and WIND STORM have a class edge over the rest of the field and what separates them is the distance. AGAINST THE SKY is proven going this far and her last win came in this race last year. She was also good enough to win the Grade 3 Ballerina in 2008 and although she isn't in the best form of her career, she should be good enough to win this. WIND STORM is obviously a much better sprinter and last year Forster opted to run her in the B.C. Cup Sprint instead of trying to stretch her out in the Distaff. Given the weakness of the field and the fact that AGAINST THE SKY might not be on top of her game, giving her a shot here may have been a wise choice. It has been a while since she has run but Forster certainly knows how to get them ready for a stakes race and he probably had this race in the back of his mind for a while. MISS KAY DEE RAINE may have needed her latest and the only time she went this far she ran a good race to finish third in the $122K B.C. Oaks.

RACE TEN: WHIPSTITCH was squeezed back soon after the start and then rallied to just miss in a similar race July 18. He gets seven pounds off with Pacheco taking the call and should be right there with a clean trip. ELUSIVE WAYS should appreciate the move back to a sprint and also the much easier company after forcing a quick pace and fading badly in a second level allowance race. The substantial drop is a bit of a concern, however. NORTHERN INTENT will also appreciate the move back to a sprint after tiring in his first try going around three turns. THEGREATSUMOSKI might be worth a look with the blinkers and Perez going on.