Mike's Race Analysis September 6, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  #2 French Roast | 2nd  -  #4 Answer The Call | 3rd  -  #5 Good Bad N Ugly

 

COMMENTARY : The #2 FRENCH ROAST rallied from off the pace to beat a similar crew three weeks back and with this race really not coming up any tougher it’s tough to against this ‘old pro’. The #4 ANSWER THE CALL had things pretty easy on the head end last time and couldn’t defeat the #2 FRENCH ROAST so unless he’s a lot better today then he’ll likely have to settle for second money. The #5 GOOD BAD N UGLY has been popular at the claim box and perhaps the continual changing of barns has caught up to him as he seems to have peaked and may be on his way down; there isn’t much early pace in here which is a plus for him so if he were to regain some of his earlier form he could be in the picture at the end.


Race #2

1st   -  #2 Ashesinthewind | 2nd  -  #1 Entry | 3rd  -  #3 Up Sweep 

COMMENTARY : The #2 ASHESINTHEWIND has the rail in this race that features a ton of early speed; he’s dropping down in price after a decent third a couple of months ago and if he can repeat his last race that should kind of effort should be good enough to beat this bunch. The #1 LAUREL’S GOLD and the #1a YANKEE GEORGE form a ‘live’ entry although the ‘value’ probably won’t be there; they both have a shot with their best performance so they could be the safe play. The #3 UP SWEEP is a filly taking on the boys after a game victory last time out; she could get a nice trip right in behind a hotly contested pace.

Race #3

1st   -  #4 Parklane | 2nd  -  #6 Shelbyann | 3rd   -  #1 Piment Rouge 

COMMENTARY : The #4 PARKLANE has been banging heads with some of the top fillies going long in her last two starts and performing well so with her back in a maiden race she should be tough to beat. The #6 SHELBYANN has been improving rapidly and is a filly that should like this longer trip and if she’s left alone on the lead for too long she may never be caught. The #1 PIMENT ROUGE has turned in three good efforts so far in her brief career and will likely be better this time at this mile and a sixteenth distance.

Race #4

1st   -  #3 Cahilty Cat | 2nd  -  #4 Saratoga Renegade | 3rd  -  #5 Jade Bay 

COMMENTARY : The # CAHILTY CAT didn’t get the best of trips last time and still managed to win the money and with the threat of a pace duel in this dash I like her chances of rallying for another victory. The #4 SARATOGA RENEGADE was forced a little wide on the first turn which was enough to cost her position as well as the win; she should be dangerous with a better trip today. The #5 JADE BAY tried to run and hide from a similar field three weeks ago and was caught in mid-stretch; she’ll need to rate a little better if she’s win but she has to deal another fast one inside of her so she’ll likely go too fast early again today.

Race #5

1st   -  #6 Dark Hall | 2nd  -  #7 Corletto | 3rd  -  #8 Fuoco Del Sol 

COMMENTARY : The #6 DARK HALL ran very well in his debut considering he had three others looking him in the eye from the start; the eventual winner came back to run second in a stake which is a positive sign for him. The #7 CORLETTO is bred to be quick and could be the ‘value’ play in here. The #8 FUOCO DEL SOL is an obvious pick in this one after her third place run last time out but there won’t be much value.

Race #6

1st   -  #3 Goldy Fox | 2nd  -  #6 Rego’s Diva | 3rd  -  #8 Left To Chance 

COMMENTARY : The # GOLDY FOX has checked in second in her last two tries at this distance and looks as good as anything in here. The #6 REGO’S DIVA was aided by a quick pace to get up for second money in her latest and will likely get into the top three again today. The #8 LEFT TO CHANCE has had a couple of uninspiring sprint runs so far this year but is one that I think will improve at this longer trip and she won’t need to get much better to threaten for the win with this group; she’s the VALUE play.

Race #7

1st   -  #4 Mr. Gobetween | 2nd  -  #5 Brother Jake | 3rd  -  #3 Harvard Grad 

COMMENTARY : The #4 MR. GOBETWEEN continues to train impressively but never seems to run to his fast works in the afternoons; it appears that he’ll get the early lead which is the only reason I’ll side with him in this spot. The #5 BROTHER JAKE should be in a good striking position and considering this maiden race really hasn’t come up all that tough he has a big shot. The #3 HARVARD GRAD always seems to defeat himself at the start and leave too much work to do and if he ever would break with the field he’d probably win for fun.

Race #8

1st   -  #6 Golden Ratio | 2nd  -  #3 Ookster | 3rd  -  #1 Summer Glow 

COMMENTARY : The #6 GOLDEN RATIO has a couple of good races (last one was against the boys with a wide trip) under her belt in preparation for her stakes debut; this race has come up easier than her last two and I think she’ll be tough to beat. The #3 OOKSTER is making her debut off of a series of solid works; she is a half-sis to multiple stakes winner Ookashada. The #1 SUMMER GLOW ran alright in her debut going three and a half furlongs and has a strong pedigree as well.

Race #9

1st   -  #7 Paulswithdavid | 2nd  -  #3 Alferrari | 3rd  -  #2 Alert N Wise 

COMMENTARY : The #7 PAULSWITHDAVID was bounced around leaving the latch last time and didn’t get himself into his usual spot near the lead which led to his poor showing; he’s down in class today and will likely get the early lead so I expect a better result this time. The #3 ALFERRARI has a couple of sharp works since his win five weeks ago and seems to be back in form which will make him dangerous at this level. The #2 ALERT N WISE is another that is down in class and looks to be better than most in here.  

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON AT THE RACES !!!