Mike's Race Analysis September 27, 2008
Race #1
1st - #4 Paulswithdavid | 2nd - #2 Alferrari | 3rd - #6 Yankee George
COMMENTARY : The #4 PAULSWITHDAVID turned in a winning effort in his latest start but had to settle for second and I think a repeat performance gets him the money in this pot. The #2 ALFERRARI was a no-threat third behind my top pick but may be able to turn the tables on an ‘off’ race track. The #6 YANKEE GEORGE is in with older horses this afternoon after a nice win with three year olds.Race #2
1st - #6 Land Of Silver | 2nd - #4 Serengeti Sunrise | 3rd - #3 Katelliena
COMMENTARY : The #6 LAND OF SILVER has been in good form of late and with the threat of a decent pace being set in front of her and a wet track (which she loves) she should be tough to fend off in the stretch. The #4 SERENGETI SUNRISE wasn’t disgraced in her first try at this trip and she’s another that has been sharp throughout most of the season; major player once again. The #3 KATELLIENA has been better at the longer races and will likely be better on the stretch out.Race #3
1st - #2 Avalanche Bay | 2nd - #4 Mystic Pass | 3rd - #1 Alittlebitextra
COMMENTARY : The #2 AVALANCHE BAY is a wet track specialist that looks very strong in this soft non-winner of the year race so she’ll likely win at a short price. The #4 MYSTIC PASS chased a fast pace in her latest but if she can set a sensible early tempo then she has a chance for a minor upset. The #1 ALITTLEBITEXTRA has been a closing runner-up in her last two starts and should be in the top three at this distance.Race #4
1st - #6 No Sox Fox | 2nd - #7 Metatron | 3rd - #5 My Hearts Desire
COMMENTARY : The #6 NO SOX FOX is taking a big plunge in price after a rallying to be a close third for $15,000; he’s the best horse in the race by far but the drop is quite alarming so beware. The #7 METATRON was a game third in his last start at this same level; he has speed and if he can avoid a pace duel with the #4 T J HENNESSY and the #8 WILLIWAW then he has a shot. The #5 MY HEARTS DESIRE got shuffled back early losing position and then he rallied to get a small cheque; Perez stays with him and I think he’ll definitely be in the top three.Race #5
1st - #1 King’s Spirit | 2nd - #8 Lady Shogun | 3rd - #4 Valours Reply
COMMENTARY : The #1 KING’S SPIRIT improved noticeably without the blinkers last time as she set a lively pace and held well to be second; her latest effort is miles better than anyone else in here so looks like a wire-to-wire winner. The #8 LADY SHOGUN had every shot to win her last but was nailed in deep stretch and had to settle for second money; she’ll need improve to win the race but a repeat of her last gets her in the top three. The #4 VALOURS REPLY didn’t’ run all that badly in her first start here at Hastings last June and with her going on Lasix and the hot Dave Wilson in the irons I think she has a decent shot of hitting the board.Race #6
1st - #3 Bangalow | 2nd - #2 Rural Route | 3rd - #8 Spirit Bear
COMMENTARY : The #3 BANGALOW has been getting minor awards running with the non-two $20,000 types so with him dipping into this conditional $8,000 event a repeat of either of his last two races will get him the winner’s cheque in this spot. The #2 RURAL ROUTE was full of run in the late going last time and even though the competition is considerably tougher he might be the strongest off-the-pace threat. The #8 SPIRIT BEAR ran horribly without an apparent excuse at low odds last time on the class drop but one still has to respect his speed so I have to use him on all wagers.Race #7
1st - #6 My Friend Geoff | 2nd - #4 Mister La Rock | 3rd - #1 Deputy Allstar
COMMENTARY : The #6 MY FRIEND GEOFF has a similar form to my pick (Bangalow) in sixth race as he exits those tougher non-two $20,000 races in favour of this easier $8,000 assignment; there should be a solid pace to aid his chances. The #4 MISTER LA ROCK has been away from the races for almost two months with just one half-mile work two weeks ago so he’s obviously had some problems but still must be respected off of his current form. The #1 DEPUTY ALLSTAR has been lightly raced this year and actually didn’t run all that bad in his last and I’m sure he’ll get lots out of that race and be a grittier opponent for his rivals today.Race #8
1st - #1 Dalton Green | 2nd - #2 Zip The Bright | 3rd - #5 Rank Six
COMMENTARY : The #1 DALTON GREEN had a tough trip last time and wound up fourth against a similar cast but with him moving inside I like his chances of taking this field wire-to-wire. The #2 ZIP THE BRIGHT has been in top form of late and got a much deserved victory two weeks back and he’ll likely be a top threat again this afternoon. The #5 RANK SIX is exiting some tough non-three races and his numbers stack up well with this group so he could be the ‘value’ play in here.Race #9
1st - #4 Lennylooksgood | 2nd - #5 Shadow Tamer | 3rd - #8 King’s Paradise
COMMENTARY : The #4 LENNYLOOKSGOOD ran last weekend in a much tougher spot and with him likely to get the early lead in this dash he might finally run to those quick works he’s been turning in all year long. The #5 SHADOW TAMER looks like the main danger to my top pick; he has speed and a good post for his style so he’ll likely complete what could be a small EXACTOR. The #8 KING’S PARADISE ran well in his debut and has some sharp works for his return to the races and if the top two hook up in a pace battle then this guy might be able to get up for the win but if they don’t he’s still a strong TRIACTOR play.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON AT THE RACES !!!!