Mike's Race Analysis September 26, 2008

COMMENTARY : The #5 LADY PREACHER has been freshened up after a couple of disappointing tries with pricier maidens; she has speed and might be able to get clear early which would give her a big edge today. The #6 TONGUE AND GROOVE is the logical play on form in this dash but with the lack of early speed in the lineup she could be vulnerable favourite. The #2 SCOTTISH BILLIE is amazingly participating in two consecutive cards and still looks pretty good in this spot.

Race #2

COMMENTARY : The #4 DEVILISH WISH is coming out of one the toughest maiden heats this spring and considering she raced three wide I thought it was a better-than-looked effort; she’s in much cheaper this evening and should be a major player. The #8 A DEVILISH BITE will likely take a lot of action but her final time wasn’t overly quick so I think she’s beatable. The #6 EL SIETE LEGUAS has some excellent morning trials in preparation for his debut and these connections have done well with their young stock this season.

Race #3

COMMENTARY : The #6 BOXCARS is the only off-the-pace filly in the group and with the other five fillies seemingly wanting the lead I think she’ll get an ideal setup today. The #5 ROCK ROYAL has been working steadily for her first two-turn try after a win going short in a quick time; she was claimed that day and makes her first start for her new connections. The #4 JEANNIE LIZ beat a lot of these last time out and should be played in the TRIACTOR.

Race #4

COMMENTARY : The #1 CALLINAN looked good winning at this same level a couple of weeks back and with a similar inside post he should be tough to beat once again. The #3 HUNTER’S LAD also won two weeks ago (in a slightly slower timer than my top pick) but that victory was in a maiden race although the way he did it he just might be ready to take on this tougher competition. The #10 QUIET EDGE has a poor draw although there isn’t much early speed in this race so he still might get to set the tempo which will make him a real threat again tonight.

Race #5

COMMENTARY : The #10 JADE BAY is the class of the race (at press time there were rumblings that she was scratched) and if she runs she’ll be tough to catch. The #4 TRIBAL SECRET has been pretty consistent throughout the year and with her returning to a sprint I think she’s the main threat to my top pick. The #7 BEAUTIFUL BREEZE is another shortening up in distance after a good try going long; she should get a perfect trip sitting just in behind the speed so I like her chances as well.

Race #6