Mike's Race Analysis September 21, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  #4 Monday Mystery | 2nd  -  #6 Nite Time News | 3rd  -  #3 Hazel Trick 

COMMENTARY : The #4 MONDAY MYSTERY couldn’t quite catch the eventual winner last time but was still a solid second despite a three wide trip; she’s definitely the one to beat off of that race. The #6 NITE TIME NEWS has been hitting the fringes in her races with no-tag maidens but should be more of a factor as she faces easier opponents today. The #3 HAZEL TRICK hails from an excellent barn and sports a series of impressive morning trials so she deserves a long look in this dash; interesting filly that has taken a long tim to get to the races.

Race #2

1st   -  #5 He’s Quite A Guy | 2nd  -  #2 Wings Of An Eagle | 3rd  -  #1 Newton’s Rule 

COMMENTARY :  The #5 HE’S QUITE A GUY turned in a good effort with similar last time out finishing a close third in a fast time so he’s very ‘live’ in this spot; sports a sharp work and gets in a little lighter with apprentice Fedora. The #2 WINGS OF AN EAGLE didn’t get the bets of trips in his latest and he ended up well back; he gets a pilot change and should get a good setup today so I’m going to give him another shot. The #1 NEWTON’S RULE performed admirably in his first try going long and if he can get a break on the pace he has a good chance of winning although I do think the #3 COMMODORE CRAIG will be putting a lot of pressure on him.

Race #3

1st   -  #6 Jimbo’s Boy | 2nd  -  #7 Stole Home | 3rd  -  #1 Blaze Of Glory 

COMMENTARY : The #6 JIMBO’S BOY was traveling very well at the end of his three and a half furlong debut and is definitely one that’ll enjoy this longer trip; he’s prepped comfortably for his return and I think he’ll be tough to beat today. The #7 STOLE HOME obviously didn’t show his true talents in his career debut and is certainly one worth following back this afternoon. The #1 BLAZE OF GLORY hooked into a tough group last time and didn’t need a wide trip running with those top end maidens; this is an easier maiden race and if he can get a decent trip from the rail he could get the win at a nice price.

Race #4

1st   -  #2 Beckenbauer | 2nd  -  #5 Scots Pine | 3rd  -  #3 Cielo’s Lad 

COMMENTARY : The #2 BECKENBAUER stretches out to a better distance for him after cutting back to a sprint in his latest; this race has come up pretty soft so I expect him to capitalize and get the win. The #5 SCOTS PINE has been busy of late splitting him time between the non-winners of the year $5,000 horses and the non-two $8,000 runners; he ahs speed and should be in a favourable spot early so he’ll have every shot to win if good enough. The #3 CIELO’S LAD has been threatening to break through with a win lately and could get it today in this race that could set up nicely for him; value play.

Race #5

1st   -  #5 Smokin Danielle | 2nd  -  #7 Wind Storm | 3rd  -  #1 Badgetts Star 

COMMENTARY : The #5 SMOKIN DANIELLE is usually tough get by when she has the lead to herself early and today I think she’s the fastest and should get clear in the opening quarter so I’ll give her my top pick. The #7 WIND STORM is an extremely talented sprinter as she showed in her last victory and the only reason I’m taking her in the second spot is because of her tricky post and the fact that she’ll be the favourite and won’t possess much value. The #1 BADGETTS STAR has won five of her six starts this season albeit with easier competition but any time you get a mare on a roll you must give her strong consideration at any level.

Race #6

1st   -  #4 Fuhrever Dancing | 2nd  -  #1 Winter Warning | 3rd  -  #5 Seminole Brave 

COMMENTARY : The #4 FUHREVER DANCING had no shot from his inside post in the BC Cup Sprint but today he’s going to get a perfect trip sitting on the outside of his main competition so I like him this afternoon. The #1 WINTER WARNING hasn’t been able to get on a roll this year as he keeps finding the unstoppable Spaghetti Mouse in the starting gate with him and he’s had settle for a series of third place finishes this season; he’ll be delighted to see that his nemesis is not in the lineup and also is being reunited with Mario Gutierrez who has been on board for most of wins. Looks like it’ll be a match race for nine furlongs between my top two picks. The #5 SEMINOLE BRAVE isn’t far behind the top two in ability at all so if they get a little too interested in other then this guy could be the one sitting the trip in behind and capitalizing in the stretch.

Race #7

1st   -  #4 Flamethrowintexan | 2nd  -  #3 B R Remark | 3rd  -  #1 And All That Jazz 

COMMENTARY : The #4 FLAMETHROWINTEXAN has visited the winner’s circle both times that he ahs shipped north here to Hastings and has a tidy $221,400 bankroll from those two victories; he’s always been a tough sprinter and even though he may not be at his best right now I think he’s classy enough to keep his winning streak in Vancouver intact. The #3 B R REMARK surprised most with his win in the PNE Speed Handicap as last year’s Sprint Champion was dismissed as the longest shot on the board at 10-1; if my top pick doesn’t fire his A-race then this one is the logical play as he should get ideal trip sitting in behind a couple of speedsters that can duel each other into defeat. The #1 AND ALL THAT JAZZ didn’t really rate at all as he was pretty sent from the gate and asked to go as fast as he could for as long as he could; his task is a tough one again today but he still must be respected at this short six furlong trip.

Race #8

1st   -  #5 Bears Tiger | 2nd  -  #1 Entry | 3rd  -  #2 Reel Prime 

COMMENTARY : The connections of the #5 BEARS TIGER opted to run another stable mate in the Derby and him in the $50,000 Consolation because there was so much speed in the Derby; he gets easier opponents but he’s going to face a ton of early speed in this one as well. I think he’s the best horse in the race and even if he has to go at a crazy tempo early he should be good enough stay on against this caliber. The #1 SARATOGA AVENUE and the #1a VALDERO are a strong duo that should make their presence felt in this race; the latter comes into the Consolation off of a big run with allowance types and could be the one sitting in the perfect striking position. The #2 REEL PRIME shouldn’t be taken too lightly in this spot although I think that if he was firing on all cylinders that he would’ve been in the next race.

Race #9

1st   -  #3 Forest Prince | 2nd  -  #9 Krazy Koffee | 3rd  - #7 Texas Wildcatter 

COMMENTARY : This is an extremely tough Derby to try and select a winner as there are at least seven of the nine combatants that have legitimate chances of winning the big prize. I think that the #3 FOREST PRINCE had the best prep race of anyone despite losing to the red-hot #9 KRAZY KOFFEE as he sat close to a fast pace and ran on well which was in direct contrast to the way his prior race had set up when he defeated older horses. This Derby is going to be run quickly early and I like the fact he’s been prepared for that type of scenario so I believe he’ll be at his ultimate best today. The #9 KRAZY KOFFEE has been absolutely awesome in this season and couldn’t be coming into the race any better; he’s a big stout gelding that won’t have any worries about shouldering 126 pounds (where others may have issues with this heavy impost) and with a fast pace looking as likely as Sundin not signing with Canucks he’s going to be tough to fend off late. The #7 TEXAS WILDCATTER has been in good form since arriving at the Troy Taylor barn and is the one with the big race experience and is the class of the field; his off-the-pace running style will undoubtedly help in this Derby and if the blinker change brings out a even better performance from him then this Derby will be his. The #4 ARKHILL is a talented colt that has a shot although he doesn’t have the benefit of a recent race. The #6 DANCINGALL THEWAY is a three time winner this year  over the Woodbine polytrack and if he handles the Hastings surface then he too has an excellent chance rating in behind the speed. The other KK Sangara entrant #8 WINK AT THE GIRLS might end up being the surprise of the field as he’s proven that he can blaze early and still be around at the end on a conventional dirt track as he showed in his most recent start.

Race #10

1st   -  #1 Zethar | 2nd  -  #8 In Vogue | 3rd  -  #5 Flaming Zianah 

COMMENTARY : The #1 ZETHAR looks to be the speed of the race and likely only needs to repeat her latest effort to be a strong threat today; she’s been better since going on Lasix. The #8 IN VOGUE had a rough trip on the inside of fillies last time and should appreciate the move to an outside post where she can strut her stuff and if he best appears she should win the money. The #5 FLAMING ZIANAH looks to be the best off-the-pace threat in a race that could be run quickly early so she has a big shot as well.  

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