Mike's Race Analysis September 20, 2008
Race #1
1st - #2 Undersecretary | 2nd - #1 Entry | 3rd - #4 M L’s Indian
COMMENTARY : The #2 UNDERSECRETARY was a decent third last time out going a distance that is a bit too far for him; he has a sharp work and cuts back to a sprint and should get a lively pace to run at. The #1 LION BILL and the #1a WHEN IN ROME are both in good form right now and either has an excellent shot of winning this dash. The #4 M L’S INDIAN is down at a level where he should be more competitive; he’s a three time winner already this year.Race #2
1st - #4 Cielo Rojo | 2nd - #3 Critical Choice | 3rd - #5 Vying Star
COMMENTARY : The #4 CIELO ROJO made a wide early move last time and it cost her as she flattened out in the stretch and had to settle for second; she’s probably going to get a hot pace set in front of her again today so all she’ll need is a better timed move to get the winner’s cheque. The #3 CRITICAL CHOICE had a wide trip early and actually ran a good race considering she was lacking a favourable early position; she has a better post today so she’ll be a major threat this afternoon. The #5 VYING STAR will take the blinkers off today after a disappointing effort a couple of weeks back; if she can repeat the race that she turned in two starts back then she has a good chance of winning.
Race #3
1st - #7 Patrom | 2nd - #5 Duelling Pistol | 3rd - #1 Daktaari
COMMENTARY : The #7 PATROM ran well in her debut and would’ve been right there for the win if he’d gotten a better trip; he makes his first start for new connections and looks to have drawn a great spot to break his maiden. The #5 DUELLING PISTOL improved in his second start and will likely take a lot of money because of his narrow defeat at this level. The #1 DAKTAARI has drawn the rail and has been second three times in her three trips to the post; solid horse that looks like a strong Triactor threat.Race #4
1st - #4 The Visualiser | 2nd - #3 Peaceful Turzia | 3rd - #6 Soldiers Return
COMMENTARY : The #4 THE VISUALISER had to go three and four throughout last time and finished an unlucky second as the eventual winner got through on the rail in the stretch. He’s drawn in the middle today so he should get a better trip which is all he should need to win at this level. The #3 PEACEFUL TURZIA is another that was compromised in traffic and would’ve been right on the money with a clean trip; could possess some value in this evenly matched race. The #6 SOLDIERS RETURN has been perfect so far this year winning all four of his starts but he’s been off for awhile and may have lost that edge that he had earlier this spring.Race #5
1st - #4 Splash Power | 2nd - #7 Private Action | 3rd - #5 Iamontoyou
COMMENTARY : The #4 SPLASH POWER ran very well in her return to Hastings and would’ve won if she hadn’t suffered from a wide trip; she’s in a better spot today and should win with a repeat effort. The #7 PRIVATE ACTION has been freshened up and returns at the same level where she was second two months back; she has speed and if she avoid a pace duel then she has a good chance as well. The #5 IAMONTOYOU had a tough post last time and rallied to get a small cheque; she might get a contested pace today which would aid her chances.Race #6
1st - #5 Holy Nova | 2nd - #4 Against the Sky | 3rd - #1 Lady Raj
COMMENTARY : The #5 HOLY NOVA has only lost once this year and that was a sprint against the boys; she is definitely the one to beat in this one even though she may not be at her best (could be a tad far for her??) distance. The distance won’t be a problem for the red-hot #4 AGAINST THE SKY who is riding a four race winning streak; she lacks the class but is sharp and could surprise some people. The #1 LADY RAJ will team up with Hoverson for this race as Gutierrez ends up the other Taylor runner; she’ll love the distance and we’ll see if she can regain her top form after a no-threat performance in Washington.Race #7
1st - #7 Joyride | 2nd - #5 Answer The Call | 3rd - #2 Slews Prospect
COMMENTARY : The #7 JOYRIDE has been getting some small paycheques at this level but with the threat of a little more speed in the lineup I think he’ll get a pretty good set up today which could lead to his first win in almost two years. The #5 ANSWER THE CALL was a no-threat third with better last time and he should be more of a factor as he takes the dip down to this $15,000 price. The #2 SLEWS PROSPECT was very game in winning at this tag last time out but with more speed to put pressure on him today he may not get the same cushy trip.
Race #8
1st - #4 Lecturing Lynn | 2nd - #5 Blue Sky Holiday | 3rd - #3 Broken Hearted
COMMENTARY : This year’s renewal of the $125,000 B.C. Oaks looks like a three horse race on paper and I’ll side with the streaking #4 LECTURING LYNN who has won back-to-back stakes defeating her main competition in both races. She has excellent tactical speed which allow her to be in a favourable spot early which could end up being the difference in the final outcome; she’ll likely be the one to catch from the quarter-pole to the wire. The #5 BLUE SKY HOLIDAY has been much better since the blinkers came off two starts back and the extra distance won’t bother while it may bother her two chief rivals. She has enough early speed to keep her competition in her sights and could be the ‘value’ play. The #3 BROKEN HEARTED got the better of my top pick earlier this year and with Quincy Welch coming in to ride one has to respect her chances.Race #9
1st - #4 Dramatic Charmer | 2nd - #1 Kachina Dream | 3rd - #6 Mining Interactive
COMMENTARY : The #4 DRAMATIC CHARMER is in top form right now and with a pace duel looking highly probable she’s going to be tough to fend off in the stretch. The #1 KACHINA DREAM tried a little too tough of company last time but she returns to a level where she’ll be more of a threat this afternoon. The #6 MINING INTERACTIVE has been in good form of late as well and one has to respect the connections so she’s a major player also.
Race #10
1st - #1 P S Commander | 2nd - #5 Knighthood | 3rd - #6 Kwik’e Mark
COMMENTARY : The #1 P S COMMANDER is getting a far easier assignment today and should take this field wire-to-wire. The #5 KNIGHTHOOD didn’t get the bets of trips in his latest and if he can get a decent pace set in front of him then he has a great shot to get back into the winner’s circle. The #6 KWIK’E MARK has been freshened up after a good early part to the season; this race is pretty tough for the level but he’s performed well in the past against sharp opponents.
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