Mike's Race Analysis September 14, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  #6 Tribunal Man | 2nd  -  #2 Shadow Tamer | 3rd  -  #1 Anducci 

COMMENTARY : The #6 TRIBUNAL MAN looks like the controlling speed in this dash which should give him the edge today. The #2 SHADOW TAMER suffered from a brutal trip last time out and is the probably the play of any ‘trip’ handicappers; check the tote if he’s the better price of the two then go for him as he’s every bit as good as the #6 TRIBUNAL MAN. The #1 ANDUCCI improved a bit in his second start and a repeat of that effort likely gets him third money in this spot.

Race #2

1st   -  #1 Entry | 2nd  - #4 Random Highs | 3rd  -  #2 McGill 

COMMENTARY : The #1 OUR GIN GIRL and the #1a DANCING O are both in good form right now so I’ll take the two-for-one in this competitive heat. The #4 RANDOM HIGHS just missed at this level in his latest and is ‘live’ again today. The #2 MCGILL is down in class after a no-threat effort with $25,000 fillies; she’s in a better spot today and will likely be a big factor.

Race #3

1st   -  #6 Artic Star | 2nd  -  #3 Usher Inc. | 3rd  -  #1 Aragorn 

COMMENTARY : The #6 ARTIC STAR ran a better-than-looked race after being forced out on the turns last time and today he should get a perfect trip either on the lead or sitting just off another runner and with that favourable position he’ll be tough to beat this time. The #3 USHER INC. is the obvious pick in here but with a little less speed in the race his late kick might not be as noticeable. The #1 ARAGORN is back in with the non-two $20,000 group after a couple of tries in allowance company and shortening up I like his chances of hitting the board.

Race #4

1st   -  #8 Mayne’s Finale | 2nd  -  #6 Mocha Time | 3rd  -  #4 Count Your Dreams 

COMMENTARY : The #8 MAYNE’S FINALE ran into a bear in his last one and had to settle for second despite running another good race; this dash has come up considerably easier so she looks like the one to beat. The #6 MOCHA TIME seems to get along quite nicely with Fernando Perez and they will team up again today; she might be able to clear off and get the early lead and if she does then she’ll be a big threat to win it all. The #4 COUNT YOUR DREAMS is back sprinting for the first time since last summer; she’s been in good form since returning and will likely run another race good enough to get in the money.

Race #5

1st   -  #2 Mia Dolce | 2nd  -  #7 Sargent Sally | 3rd  -  #4 Eight Black 

COMMENTARY : The #2 MIA DOLCE had some troubles early and still managed to get up for second which was quite impressive and she’ll be very tough with a better beginning. The #7 SARGENT SALLY is in a much easier spot and will add blinkers which could be the recipe she needs for a victory. The #4 EIGHT BLACK has a string of decent works for the leading connections which is enough for me to give her respect in this bottom level maiden dash.

Race #6

1st   -  #5 Market Flair | 2nd  -  #3 Time For Tipping | 3rd  -  #2 Aid And Abet 

COMMENTARY : The #5 MARKET FLAIR is exiting a very tough race in which he finished up sixth but with three of the top five coming to back to do very well next time it shows how tough that race really was. This particular race has come up extremely soft and with him likely on or near lead in a comfortable fashion he’s the one to beat. The # TIME FOR TIPPING is one that could improve on the stretch out; he’s been busy this year but seems to be thriving on all the activity as his best races have been his most recent ones. The #2 AID AND ABET turned in a brilliant work (1:00.20) last week in preparation for today’s race and if he can handle the extra ground then he’s another that has a shot.

Race #7

1st   -  #2 Wanna Be Silver | 2nd  -  #7 Archery | 3rd  -  #4 Irish Delta 

COMMENTARY : The #2 WANNA BE SILVER is one of many fillies that could win this race but I’ll gamble that she gets the right trip from her inside gate; she’s won three in a row if you take out her stakes races and with her in for a tag this afternoon I think she’s the one to beat even at this shorter trip. The #7 ARCHERY just missed when running with slightly better and if she can get a decent trip from her tricky post then she’s eligible to win as well. The #4 IRISH DELTA had a rough trip in her last and didn’t get beat all that far; she fits nicely with these and she’ll get the pilot that knows her best (Gutierrez is two-for-two with her this year) back in the saddle today.

Race #8

1st   -  #2 Against The Sky | 2nd  -  #5 Chivago | 3rd  -  #7 Exploding 

COMMENTARY : The #2 AGAINST THE SKY has dominated her male counterparts in the these marathon races and with this race really not coming up very different she should win the money again today. The #5 CHIVAGO has taken nicely the extra distance but can’t seem to get the better of the favoured mare; best of rest. The #7 EXPLODING had a tough post last time and wasn’t disgraced in his first try in the marathon series so I think he deserves another shot.

Race #9

1st   -  #3 P.S. Good N Ready | 2nd  -  #4 Tick Me Off | 3rd  -  #2 Lornamahra 

COMMENTARY : The #3 P.S GOOD N READY had found a pretty soft to return as she preps for the $100,000 Sadie Diamond Futurity which will be run in three weeks time; she’s a KEY on all wagers. The #4 TICK ME OFF scooted up the inside to break her maiden in her debut and she needs to get a lot better to beat the favourite but doesn’t need to do to get better in order to claim second money. The #2 LORNAMAHRA has won around two turns in a decent time and has a good shot at second money as well.

Race #10

1st   -  #5 Tuum Est | 2nd  -  #6 Rural Route | 3rd  -  #1 Bright Com 

COMMENTARY : The #5 TUUM EST is the speed of the race and he’s likely to get loose early so if he repeats his latest effort he should get the win. The #6 RURAL ROUTE also ran well last time and if he can either lay closer or get another runner to challenge my top pick then he has a great chance to win. The #1 BRIGHT COM ran reasonably well in his final race here last year and with a good prep work he could the price play.  

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND HAVE A GREAT DAY !!!