Mike's Race Analysis September 13, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  #2 Buckaroo Lou | 2nd  -  #6 Silver Barrage | 3rd  -  #4 Stouthearted 

COMMENTARY : The #2 BUCKAROO LOU is in top form right now and should be right on the pace making him the one to fear. The #6 SILVER BARRAGE just missed in his last at this same level and if my top pick doesn’t fire then this guy should win. The #4 STOUTHEARTED had a tough trip in his first start back after a brief freshening and if he can get better one could threaten the top two.

Race #2

1st   -  #5 Serafina Lady | 2nd  -  #6 Include The Grand | 3rd -  #2 Land Of Silver 

COMMENTARY : The #5 SERAFINA LADY is stretching out and going long and will likely get a perfect trip sitting in behind the leaders so I like her chances. The #6 INCLUDE THE GRAND makes her first start for new connections and this really isn’t a very tough spot. The #2 LAND OF SILVER is accomplished at this longer journey which might make her factor in the late stages at this lofty level.

Race #3

1st   -  #4 Lighning Finish | 2nd  -  #6 Sweet Sweet Taylor | 3rd  -  #7 Jillian Jigs 

COMMENTARY : The #4 LIGHTNING FINISH finished just behind my second pick last time but it was her first race two months and I think she can turn the tables on her this time. The #6 SWEET SWEET TAYLOR is the obvious choice off of her runner-up effort last time but with her likely not possessing any value these are the type of horses one must try and beat and she did have the lead all to herself and lost. The #7 JILLIAN JIGS has had some time off of late after being well beaten in a tougher $15,000 maiden race; this $15,000 has come up much easier so if the time off did her some good then she could be a factor.

Race #4

1st   -  #4 Sideline | 2nd  -  #6 Metatron | 3rd  -  #3 Celt 

COMMENTARY : The #4 SIDELINE chased a tough one on the pace last time and it cost him as he faded to finish third but with things looking a little easier today I think he’ll finally get his first win of the season. The #6 METATRON is dropping down in price searching for his first victory since 2006 and with his speed he should be the main threat to my top pick. The #3 CELT is getting on in age but still seems to have some run to him so with his inside draw he must be respected.

Race #5

1st   -  #1 Wannabe A Star | 2nd  -  #6 Scots Pine | 3rd  -  #2 Efective 

COMMENTARY : The #1 WANNABE A STAR was claimed out his last start and the connections opt to run him right back for the same money; he has speed and the rail to go along with a couple of decent works and I think he’ll be tougher to catch this time. The #6 SCOTS PINE is shortening up in distance after a series of good efforts going long and should be big force in this sprint. The #2 EFECTIVE closed up strongly in the stretch at long odds to get second money in his latest and if the pace scenario is favourable he’ll be right there again.

Race #6

1st   -  #7 By Magic | 2nd  -  #2 Romanced | 3rd  -  #8 Angel Came Down 

COMMENTARY : The #7 BY MAGIC is a better mare than most of these and I’ll gamble that the freshening has helped and that she runs her A-race. The #2 ROMANCED had every shot to win last time and ended up second; she figures again today but there won’t be any value. The #8 ANGEL CAME DOWN is a filly that could win if she can clear from her outside gate; tough call.

Race #7

1st   -  #4 Distorted Glamour | 2nd  -  #3 Nineleventurbo | 3rd  -  #7 Sporty Jones 

COMMENTARY : The speedy #4 DISTORTED GLAMOUR is likely to shake loose early and will be tough to catch. The #3 NINELEVENTURBO is a crafty old veteran that has run well fresh in the past and at this level he’s very ‘live’. The #7 SPORTY JONES has had a couple of tough trips at this tag and only needs a better trip to be a major threat if there’s a pace battle.

Race #8

1st   -  #4 Cabron | 2nd  -  #1 Entry | 3rd  -  #2 Entry 

COMMENTARY : The #4 CABRON is back in his best distance after a game try going long; he should clear off early which will make him very tough to beat sprinting. The #1a SNOW MOON appears to be the stronger half of a solid entry and if they can stay close to my top pick then they have a shot. The #2B SPICE TRADER is already a winner at this level going long and perhaps the return to a sprint may bring out a better showing from him; hasn’t been in great form of late but he’s capable of winning.

Race #9

1st   -  #2 Lady Shogun | 2nd  -  #8 Stormin The Border | 3rd  -  #7 Queen’s Emblem 

COMMENTARY : The #2 LADY SHOGUN is a solid wire-to-wire candidate in this soft maiden event. The #8 STORMIN THE BORDER is lightly raced and is one eligible to improve of her fifth place debut. The #7 QUEEN’S EMBLEM might have run back a little too quick last time which led to her poor effort but with more time in between races she might fire like she did two starts back.  

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A GOOD DAY !!