Mike's Race Analysis September 12, 2008
Race #1
1st - #4 Chianti Dancer | 2nd - #5 Miss Hap | 3rd - #6 Kirschgarten
COMMENTARY : The #4 CHIANTI DANCER just missed against similar two weeks back so with her likely to get a perfect trip just off of the speed she’s going to tough to beat. The #5 MISS HAP looked good winning over weak maidens but I think she’s ready for a tougher test and if my top pick gets a little too interested in leading early then this one has a shot to win. The #6 KIRSCHGARTEN broke well last time but was shuffled back early costing her any shot of getting into a decent early position and thus she ended up a non-factor; I’ll give her another chance today and hope that she gets a clean trip.
Race #2
1st - #6 Afleet B’s | 2nd - #5 Launch Our Star | 3rd - #3 Lady Vitesse
COMMENTARY : The #6 AFLEET B’S is taking a huge drop in price (the connections even buy some weight off and only want $4,500 for her) and is the obvious pick in here although there won’t be any value in playing her; tough call !! The #5 LAUNCH OUR STAR must out-foot the #2 ECOMMERCE early if she’s to pull off the minor upset but I think she can so if the #6 AFLEET B’S isn’t at her best then this gal has a shot. The #3 LADY VITESSE didn’t fare all that well against the $11,000 mares but could get an ideal setup (there could be a hotly contested pace) today so I’m putting her in the Triactor.Race #3
1st - #8 Northern Lass | 2nd - #6 Slickster | 3rd - #5 Sister Faith
COMMENTARY : The #8 NORTHERN LASS looks much the best on paper in this race that really doesn’t appear to have anything overly fast in it which is very unusual for this short trip. The #6 SLICKSTER comes from a good two year old developing barn and could be ‘live’ in his debut. The #5 SISTER FAITH has a good pedigree and some decent works and I think she deserves a look.Race #4
1st - #7 Shirleyanne | 2nd - #1 Alittlebitextra | 3rd - #6 Mystic Pass
COMMENTARY : The #7 SHIRLEYANNE has been very consistent since stretching out to this distance although she doesn’t have a win this year; she’s been tackling tougher mares and I think she’ll enjoy this far easier task and get the money. The #1 ALITTLEBITEXTRA is a much better mare at this trip and I think she’ll rebound with a better showing today. The #6 MYSTIC PASS gets back on a fast track today and if she can avoid a pace duel with the #5 THAT CAHILL KNIGHT then she has a chance to beat this group.Race #5
1st - #2 Mr. Ichiban | 2nd - #8 Fine Elly Mine | 3rd - #3 Twoforty Gordy
COMMENTARY : The #2 MR. ICHIBAN improved dramatically when dropped down to this level and distance and I feel that a repeat performance gets him the winner’s cheque this time. The #8 FINE ELLY MINE sat back off of a quick pace and rallied to get the runner-up spot last time; logical contender. The #3 TWOFORTY GORDY has been in with better of late and rates a strong chance if he can handle this longer trip.Race #6
1st - #6 Windy Day | 2nd - #1 Surgical Strike | 3rd - #7 Dalton Green
COMMENTARY : The #6 WINDY DAY is yet another one out of the Olmos barn taking a big drop in class and I guess one should watch how AFLEET B’s does in the second race to see if this is just a clearance sale (making room for the young stock) or they have a few physical problems and need to find new homes. The #1 SURGICAL STRIKE looked extremely impressive in winning over easier a couple of weeks back and with his speed he could be dangerous again today. The #7 DALTON GREEN is always a tough one at this level and won his last in Kamloops with Tyler Walker in the irons and undoubtedly he’ll be giving instructions on how he did it to his father Mark who is returning to the saddle this evening.
Race #7
1st - #6 Till The Storm | 2nd - #5 Alarico | 3rd - #2 Skimming On Ice
COMMENTARY : The #6 TILL THE STORM was much the best when running at this price last time and will be double tough again today; he’s shortening up but was running over top of horses after the six-furlong call in his victory which leads me to believe that he’ll sprint quite well. The #5 ALARICO is a consistent type that has been sharp all season long; he’s better at this shorter trip and should be dangerous in this spot. The #2 SKIMMING ON ICE just finished beating a tough group of non-two’s for $20,000 and is in with his own age today for $25,000 which I think is a sideways move in talent so I think he has a big chance as well.Race #8
1st - #9 Hunter’s Lad | 2nd - #4 Diego’s Special | 3rd - #2 Trinidad Bay
COMMENTARY : The #9 HUNTER’S LAD was in between horses the entire trip last time and fought on well and I think the outside post will be better for him. The #4 DIEGO’S SPECIAL was right with my top pick in his first run at Hastings and is probably the one likely to improve enough to get into the winner’s circle. The #2 TRINIDAD BAY is taking the blinkers off today and looking back I think his best effort was the only time he raced without them so look for improvement from him as well today.THANKS FOR JOINING US ON-LINE AND ENJOY YOUR FRIDAY EVENING AT HASTINGS !!!!
