Mike's Race Analysis September 1, 2008
Race #1
1st - #5 Sultry Eyes | 2nd - #1 Paradise Cruiser | 3rd - #6 Sheisrough
COMMENTARY : I like the #5 SULTRY EYES who comes into this race off of a sub-par performance against similar but today she’ll get her winning pilot back and more importantly will likely get a pace duel in front of her which will give her a big shot to win. The #1 PARADISE CRUISER is another that should be able to take advantage of the probable contested pace in this dash and be in the top three; she can win with a good trip. The #6 SHEISROUGH is the best of the speed fillies as she showed last time out by almost winning despite being forced to run some dynamic early fractions.
Race #2
1st - #3 Tendra’s Way | 2nd - #7 Service Ribbon | 3rd - #2 Stella Stella
COMMENTARY : The #3 TENDRA’S WAY ran away and hid from a non-two field last time out and with this race really not having much early speed her catch-me-if-you-can tactics might get her another victory. The #7 SERVICE RIBBON just missed last weekend going farther at this same level and if the quick turnaround doesn’t bother her too much then she’ll be a big factor in the late going. The #2 STELLA STELLA hasn’t been the most consistent filly of late but on her best day she can run with the top two; sharp work (47.00) maybe better is in store today.Race #3
1st - #3 Rich Debut | 2nd - #6 You Won’t Like It | 3rd - #2 Alittlebitextra
COMMENTARY : The #3 RICH DEBUT chased a very fast pace last time and tired late to finish third but today she should get things much easier out on the lead so I think she has an excellent shot of taking these mares wire-to-wire. The #6 YOU WON’T LIKE IT had a perfect trip in behind the speed last time and couldn’t run by my top pick so I have to leave her in the second spot. The #2 ALITTLEBITEXTRA is one the better mares in the race but with a lack of speed in this dash her off-the-pace style may only net her a minor award.
Race #4
1st - #3 Vyliena | 2nd - #4 Secret Notis | 3rd - #1 Never Assume
COMMENTARY : The #3 VYLIENA was up on a quick pace with no-tag maidens in her latest and wasn’t disgraced in the end so with her in with bottom level maiden fillies I think she has a great chance of staying on for the win. The #4 SECRET NOTIS has turned in a couple even efforts going shorter and is one likely to appreciate this two-turn race; she has a solid work in 1:01.60 which should set her up for a good performance; could be some good VALUE here !!. The #1 NEVER ASSUME is definitely the one to beat off of her last race but with her drawing a very difficult post it could be tough for her to get up and win.Race #5
1st - #7 Sideline | 2nd - #10 Tyger Gold | 3rd - #2 Looking After Biz
COMMENTARY : The #7 SIDELINE has a string of runner-up efforts of late and really shouldn’t have lost the last time (hopped in the air at the start costing him five lengths) he was down at this level; a repeat of his last race wins him the money. The #10 TYGER GOLD has had a spotty work tab since his last start which was way back in May but he has the talent to crush this field; tough call ?? The #2 LOOKING AFTER BIZ has shown some improvement of late and is one likely to come running late to get in the top three.
Race #6
1st - #4 Usher Inc. | 2nd - #1 Distorted Glamour | 3rd - #5 Kayla’s Pride
COMMENTARY : The #4 USHER INC. was unlucky not to win his last (held up in traffic on the final turn) at this level and with another lively pace looming he should be tough to hold off in the stretch. The #1 DISTORTED GLAMOUR rated beautifully in behind the speed last time which proved to be a good move as he just missed winning; he has some options which is nice in this race that set up a few different ways; very ‘live’. The #5 KAYLA’S PRIDE has been in good form of late after looking a little lost in his ’08 debut he’s come back with two solid runs and if the top two aren’t at their best then this guy has a shot to win the money.Race #7
1st - #7 Valdero | 2nd - # 2 Right Honorable | 3rd - # 6 Reel Prime
COMMENTARY : The #7 VALDERO should be able to find his way to the top even though he has an outside post; he has a lot more experience at the helm this time and I think he gets the victory. The #2 RIGHT HONORABLE was in contention on the final turn last time before he was ‘sawed off ‘ and forced to take up sharply losing all chance; he deserves another shot with this group especially with light weight and the likely chance of him getting to set a sensible pace. The #6 REEL PRIME has solid credentials and is most accomplished runner in the field but he doesn’t appear to have much speed and with him cutting right back from eleven furlongs to six and a half in only a week I have to play against him.Race #8
1st - #1 Sophisticated Sis | 2nd - #3 Heaven On Hold | 3rd - #6 Elegant Avie
COMMENTARY : The #1 SOPHISTICATED SIS looks like the speed of the race and if she can repeat her July sprint then she has a big chance of leading field all the way. The #3 HEAVEN ON HOLD is another shortening up to her best distance and is the logical choice on paper. The #6 ELEGANT AVIE dropped in for $25,000 and got a much need win; she’s been competitive with this caliber in the past and I like her to be in the top three.Race #9
1st - #2 Spaghetti Mouse | 2nd - #4 Winter Warning | 3rd - #5 Rosberg
COMMENTARY : The #2 SPAGHETTI MOUSE is the older horse champ here at Hastings right now and one had to admire his courage to win on BC Cup day with 125 pounds and getting hooked at the top of the lane and watching out-game his opponent; he’s getting up in the weights (126 today) where it is really going to be a factor especially if the track comes up wet but I’ll still take him on top. The #4 WINTER WARNING will once again try and steal this one on the head end and with him getting a little more weight from the ‘Mouse’ he might be able to pull off the minor upset. The #5 ROSBERG will undoubtedly be more of a factor today as he moves out to nine furlongs so if the ‘Mouse’ gets a little too interested in staying close to the #4 WINTER WARNING then this guy could be the danger in the stretch.Race #10
1st - #1 Spirit Bear | 2nd - #4 Holy Judgement | 3rd - #3 Mister La Rock
COMMENTARY : The #1 SPIRIT BEAR is down in price today, has the rail and should prove very tough to catch. The #4 HOLY JUDGEMENT was much the best in his maiden score as he was fanned out five wide on the first turn yet still managed to run on for an easy win; he’s an improving type that must be respected. The #3 MISTER LA ROCK had some troubles last time which caused him to miss the board for the first time in three starts; he’s lacking morning activity since his last race which is a concern.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON AT THE RACES !!