Mike's Race Analysis October 5, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  #6 Piment Rouge | 2nd  -  #3 No Sense Of Humor | 3rd  -  #4 Diamond Notebook 

COMMENTARY : The #6 PIMENT ROUGE gets an easier assignment today as this dash has come up pretty soft for the level and I think shell stay close to the pace and get the win. The #3 NO SENSE OF HUMOR wasn’t disgraced in her first start at the $25,000 tag and is one eligible to move forward off her encouraging debut. The #4 DIAMOND NOTEBOOK makes her return to the races after a 13 month layoff; the connections thought enough of her to start her in a stake last season so with her returning in this wide-open maiden race she has big chance if ready.

Race #2

1st   -  #4 Ten Years After | 2nd  -  #6 Officer’s Approval | 3rd  -  #3 Stole Home 

COMMENTARY : The #4 TEN YEARS AFTER should get a nice setup today as his main competition appear to be speed types so I think his off-the-pace style will be rewarded with a victory. The #6 OFFICER’S APPROVAL can win today but I’m worried about him getting fanned out three wide on the pace; blinker change may help him relax. The #3 STOLE HOME adds blinkers after bolting on the final turn and the equipment change should make him more of a factor; leading rider stays!!

Race #3

1st  -  #3 Duelling Pistol | 2nd  -  #6 Brenniven | 3rd  -  #8 Ambrato 

COMMENTARY : The #3 DUELLING PISTOL has been pretty solid at this level and is sitting on a win and if he stays clear of trouble he should get the job done today. The #6 BRENNIVEN is the main danger to my top pick as he drops out of no-tag maiden company and if he can break with the field (a little tardy away from the gate in most of his starts) he has a big shot of winning. The #8 AMBRATO exits a tough heat and will appreciate the easier opponents; he’ll add blinkers and could be the ‘value’ play.  

Race #4

1st   -  #6 Scots Pine | 2nd  -  #2 Cielo’s Lad | 3rd  -  #4 Slick Victor 

COMMENTARY : I think I’ve picked the #6 SCOTS PINE five or six time this year and I’ll try it one more time as I think he’ll get to the front early and set a sensible tempo and I’ll gamble that he stays the trip this time. The #2 CIELO’S LAD lost all chance at the start as he had no position at all behind a slow pace; if he can get into a good spot early he has a good chance of beating the #6 SCOTS PINE. The #4 SLICK VICTOR had a brutal trip last time so one can toss that race out and if he can repeat his effort two starts back that plots him right in the mix.

Race #5

1st   -  #2 Rural Route | 2nd  -  #10 Canuck Buck | 3rd  -  #8 Write A Letter 

COMMENTARY : The #2 RURAL ROUTE just ran last weekend with tougher company and ended up a close third; he gets back in with his own age group and should get a quick pace to run again so I like his chances. The #10 CANUCK BUCK is taking a suspicious drop in class after looking like one on the improve; he has an outside post which could be tricky but I still think he hit the top three; watch him in paddock.

Race #6

1st   -  #3 Tyger Gold | 2nd  -  #6 Great Prince | 3rd  -  #8 He’s Quite A Guy 

COMMENTARY : The #3 TYGER GOLD is a strong wire-to-wire candidate after his game third place run at the $15,000; it’s real no surprise to see him back down for $5,000 so I think he’ll get the win. The #6 GREAT PRINCE woke up with a very good effort last time out and got a much needed victory; he’s been a  better horse without the blinkers and could put back-to-back top efforts together. The #8 HE’S QUITE A GUY lost a little too much ground in his latest and it cost him the win losing by a head; could be the one rallying late.

Race #7

1st   -  #8 Woombroom Express | 2nd  -  #3 Willie Katchem | 3rd  -  #6 Alarico 

COMMENTARY : The #8 WOOMBROOM EXPRESS ran extremely well against older horses in his first start after the claim; he’s back in with three year olds and with a repeat effort of his last race (even though he finished sixth) I think that kind of race is good enough to beat this crew. The #3 WILLIE KATCHEM shortens up to a distance that isn’t his best but there is the threat of a pace duel and that would play out well for him; he’ll appreciate a wet track. The #6 ALARICO has been very competitive at this level throughout the year although his latest effort might signal that he may be tailing off a tad.

Race #8

1st   -  #7 Smokin Danielle | 2nd  -  #2 Perservata | 3rd  -  #4 Destiny’s Home 

COMMENTARY : I thought that the #7 SMOKIN DANIELLE ran very well last time out as she battled on the pace while making only her second start in three and a half months; she has better spacing in between races this time and we should a top effort from her today. The #2 PERSERVATA was impressive in her Hastings debut and with her being lightly raced she’s one that could continue to improve; main danger !! The #4 DESTINY’S HOME could get a nice setup in her return to Hastings after an unsuccessful summer in Alberta; she has a stalking style that could get her a piece of the purse; ‘value play’.   

Race #9

1st  -  #6 El Sinaloense | 2nd  -  #8 Almost Time | 3rd  -  #4 Millwright 

COMMENTARY : The #6 EL SINALOENSE has been unstoppable this season and has looked more like a three year old running against two year olds; he was turned out for a while after his fifth consecutive victory perhaps showing some signs of fatigue but he came back to work very smartly (24 and change last quarter) so he’s still the one. The #8 ALMOST TIME looked awesome beating up on maidens and if he can work out a decent trip from his outside gate he could threaten the champ. The #4 MILLWRIGHT was very game in his maiden score defeating the #8 ALMOST TIME in the process and it’s too bad that he couldn’t get another race to go to give him a little more experience but I still think he give a good account of himself today.   

Race #10

1st   -  #7 Splash Power | 2nd  -  #9 Private Action | 3rd  -  #2 Unspoken Thoughts 

COMMENTARY : The #7 SPLASH POWER deserved a better fate last time out but she ended up an unlucky fourth after suffering from a brutal trip; she should get a good one today which is all she needs to beat this bunch. The #9 PRIVATE ACTION battled on the pace in her comeback race and got a little tired late but she should improve coming in two weeks. The #2 UNSPOKEN THOUGHTS has speed and the rail and just missed in her latest so she should get a lot of respect as well. Top three should be close to each other at the finish again today.  

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A GREAT DAY AT THE RACES !!!