Mike's Race Analysis October 26, 2008
Race #1
1st - #1a Romanced | 2nd - #2 Annie Laurie | 3rd - #5 Mayne’s Finale
COMMENTARY : The #1a ROMANCED looks to be the lone speed in the lineup which will give her a big edge in a race that she was going to be tough on the class drop anyways. The #2 ANNIE LAURIE has been getting a little too far out it early in here last few but with Cuthy in the tack we could see her a lot closer today which will be a good thing in this pace-less race. The #5 MAYNE’S FINALE had an unsuccessful try going long but returns to her best distance today (hasn’t missed the board sprinting) and should be part of the top three.Race #2
1st - #7 Ivory Wings | 2nd - #6 Flaming Fury | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #7 IVORY WINGS has an experience edge on many of these and looks on paper like she’s the fastest of the bunch. The #6 FLAMING FURY has a strong speed pedigree and nice works for his debut. The #1 TAHITIAN and the #1a DREXEL both have nice Kentucky bloodlines and hail from a barn that does well with its young stock.Race #3
1st - #3 Big Shiny | 2nd - #6 Wannabe A Star | 3rd - #8 Afleet D
COMMENTARY : The #3 BIG SHINY crushed a field of non-two’s when dropped down to this tag and I think he’ll be tough right back. The #6 WANNABE A STAR was an unlucky runner-up last time losing to a big class dropper in Artic Star; a repeat effort gives him a big chance to best this group. The #8 AFLEET D is down in class but really doesn’t find all that easy of a spot; there isn’t much early pace in here so he’ll need to be closer early if he’s to win the money.Race #4
1st - #8 Tsarmina | 2nd - #5 Kachina Dream | 3rd - #4 Mystic Pass
COMMENTARY : The #8 TSARMINA is facing a much easier task today and if she can show some early speed like she was earlier this year then she’ll be tough to catch. The #5 KACHINA DREAM is a pretty solid mare that has been very consistent at this distance; she’s definitely one to beat. The #4 MYSTIC PASS is sharp right now and she could be the lone speed so don’t sell her short.Race #5
1st - #8 Timeless Dancer | 2nd - #3 True Colour | 3rd - #1 Aid And Abet
COMMENTARY : The #8 TIMELESS DANCER is a maiden that almost squeezed out a victory with similar last time out; he cuts back to a sprint but I think he’ll get a contested pace up front and I like him to rally for the win. The #3 TRUE COLOUR has been stuck in this category for most of the year but showed a little more life last time and should be in the top three again today. The #1 AID AND ABET showed excellent gate speed in his latest but was reined in to lay in behind the early leaders and he pretty much just held his position but if he’s allowed to rattle early I like his chances.Race #6
1st - #8 Heza Playboy | 2nd - #6 Psammead | 3rd - #7 Nevah Nevah
COMMENTARY : The #8 HEZA PLAYBOY ran well from a tough post the last time he went long and I like him to get the job done against this crew. The #6 PSAMMEAD gave a good account of himself in his first try at this trip and should be followed back this afternoon. The #7 NEVAH NEVAH has had a few chances to get his first career victory down in Seattle but at least he’s fresh face and one that could be the best.Race #7
1st - #3 Noblety | 2nd - #5 Saratoga Avenue | 3rd - #1 Kwik
COMMENTARY : The #3 NOBLETY looks like the best speed and I like him to lead this field for a long ways. The #5 SARATOGA AVENUE was squeezed out away from the gate which cost him position but he rallied smartly to almost get he win despite all his early troubles; he’ll be tough with a clean trip. The #1 KWIK took advantage of a hot pace and a track that favoured ‘closers’ to get a win two starts back at 20-1; I don’t see the pace being hot enough to make him the winner although if the front runners get sloppy up front he’ll make them pay.Race #8
1st - #1 Senor Rojo | 2nd - #8 Almost Time | 3rd - #3 Gotta Find Bubba
COMMENTARY : The #1 SENOR ROJO was going to be an easy second in his last start if he hadn’t veered out sharply and pretty much pulled up before re-rallying to impressively get fourth place money; he’ll get blinkers today to keep his mind on business and with him working steadily preparing to go long he might be the ‘value’ play. The #8 ALMOST TIME may have some distance limitations but if he doesn’t then he’ll be tough to beat again today. The #3 GOTTA FIND BUBBA is bred to excel at this trip and with a favourable post he should be in an excellent position to win.Race #9
1st - #5 Cabron | 2nd - #8 Postmaster General | 3rd - #4 Spice Trader
COMMENTARY: The #5 CABRON is the speed of the race and is down in price and those two ingredients are usually are the recipe for a victory. The #8 POSTMASTER GENERAL is razor sharp right now and even though he’s up in class he deserves respect. The #4 SPICE TRADER was unlucky not to win his last sprint for $35,000 so he’s ‘live’ in here as well.Race #10
1st - #8 Monday Mystery | 2nd - #5 No Sense Of Humor | 3rd - #3 Scottish Billie
COMMENTARY : The #8 MONDAY MYSTERY has beaten most of these this year so by process of elimination she should be tough to beat this afternoon. The #5 NO SENSE OF HUMOR regressed in her second start although she showed first time out that she can run with my top pick. The #3 SCOTTISH BILLIE was a no-threat third in her latest but still looks better than most in here.Race #11
1st - #3 Random Highs | 2nd - #1 Serengeti Sunrise | 3rd - #4 Saratoga Renegade
COMMENTARY : The #3 RANDOM HIGHS is aggressively spotted down for $8,000 after an easy win for $15,000; definitely the one to beat. The #1 SERENGETI SUNRISE is another that is in top form and taking a class drop so these two gals look much the best on paper. The #4 SARATOGA RENEGADE has won for more money so she has a shot as well.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR DAY AT THE RACES !!!
