Mike's Race Analysis October 25, 2008
Race #1
1st - #2 Aragorn | 2nd - #4 My Hearts Desire | 3rd - #5 Metatron
COMMENTARY : The #2 ARAGORN chased a fast pace from an outside with better company and finished up a solid second; he’s facing easier today and should get the money. The #4 MY HEARTS DESIRE has been threatening to win one and with the strong possibility of a pace duel I like his chances coming from just off the pace. The #5 METATRON continues to hit the board but his numbers are gradually diminishing; he should be played in the exotics but with his current form cycle I don’t think he’ll win the big prize.Race #2
1st - #7 Blasting Gunn | 2nd - #8 Woombroom Express | 3rd - #6 Kerrisdale Comet
COMMENTARY : The #7 BLASTING GUNN is in a much easier spot today and should get an ideal trip sitting just in behind a very quick and contested pace. The #8 WOOMBROOM EXPRESS is in good form right now but is likely to get a rough trip so I’ve left him in the second spot. The #6 KERRISDALE COMET showed a lot more speed in his latest which is unusual for him; it does signal that he’s doing well and if he can work out a decent trip he has a shot in here as well.
Race #3
1st - #3 Wild Breeze | 2nd - #10 Kendallsluckycharm | 3rd - #1 I’m Not Dead Yet
COMMENTARY : The #3 WILD BREEZE missed the break in her debut and did well closing up strongly to get the fourth place cheque; she’s come back with a solid five-eighths (1:02.40) work and I think she’ll be a major factor against this average looking group of maiden fillies. The #10 KENDALLSLUCKYCHARM ran very well in her last race at this level but wasn’t so lucky in the post draw but if she can get away clean she could clear this field early and be tough to beat. The #1 I’M NOT DEAD YET chased the fast splits that were being set by the #10 KENDALLSLUCKYCHARM last time and faded to finish well back; she has strong connections that have decided to take the blinkers off and with her moving to the rail that was enough for me to give her another chance.
Race #4
1st - #2 Lady Preacher | 2nd - #9 Tongue And Groove | 3rd - #8 Unspoken Thoughts
COMMENTARY : The #2 LADY PREACHER is taking the big drop in class as is the #9 TONGUE AND GROOVE and they look like the ones to beat in this bottom level maiden claimer. I’ll side with the #2 LADY PREACHER mainly because she has better positional speed than her chief rival and will likely get a perfect trip on or near the lead which should be enough of an edge to get the win. The latter will need some luck from her outside post but if she gets it then she’ll be tough to fend off in the stretch. The #8 UNSPOKEN THOUGHTS looks to be the next best in the group as she makes her 20th attempt at breaking her maiden.Race #5
1st - #10 Jade Bay | 2nd - #1 Lilly Fa Pootz | 3rd - #3 Sweet Sweet Taylor
COMMENTARY : The #10 JADE BAY is back down in price after a couple of decent tries with $20,000 restricted mares; she has the outside post but I think she’s fast enough to overcome the tricky post assignment and I like her to go wire-to-wire. The #1 LILLY FA POOTZ should be in a perfect striking position from the rail and she is another that is down in class so she deserves respect. The #3 SWEET SWEET TAYLOR just missed at this same level last time out with a wide trip and even though this dash has come up considerably tougher I still think she’ll be in the top three.Race #6
1st - #1 Sunrise Finale | 2nd - #3 Hex | 3rd - #8 She’s Nobodys Fool
COMMENTARY : The #1 SUNRISE FINALE had a tough trip from an outside post last time which led to her no-threat third place finish; she has a better draw today and will once again team up with her winning pilot. The #3 HEX improved a lot as she stretched out to go long for the first time; she raced on a quick pace in her last and there isn’t much speed in here so if she can shake loose early and set a sensible tempo she could be tough to catch this time. The #8 SHE’S NOBODYS FOOL was a closing third in a quick time for the level against older mares in her latest so all she’ll need is an honest pace for her to be a major factor.Race #7
1st - #3 Gold Ticket | 2nd - #7 Soldiers Return | 3rd - #6 Nineleventurbo
COMMENTARY : The #3 GOLD TICKET was pinned down on the inside with tougher company and never did get into a decent position; he’s off the rail today and faces an easier assignment and with a fast pace looking very likely I like his chances this time. The #7 SOLDIERS RETURN is a solid campaigner that always runs well, his versatility in running styles has helped him win four times this year and with a little luck this could be his fifth. The #6 NINELEVENTURBO is in top form right now and this 10 year old shouldn’t be taken too lightly; he’s won at this level in the past- beware.
Race #8
1st - #9 P.S. Good N Ready | 2nd - #6 Tick Me Off | 3rd - #2 Fatal Zone
COMMENTARY : The #9 P.S. GOOD N READY is head and shoulders better than these fillies but we must remember that these are two year olds and they don’t stay on top of their form all the time (Exhibit A – El Sinaloense in the Jack Diamond Futurity). She shouldn’t have any worries about the distance as she rates very kindly which is most of the battle when trying get a horse to run a mile and a sixteenth; she looks like a solid KEY on all wagers. The #6 TICK ME OFF might have the best shot to upset as she’s bred to love this longer trip. The #2 FATAL ZONE had a tough trip in the Futurity but has since worked a good seven-eighths in 1:28.80 prepping for this race so she might improve on the stretch out.Race #9
1st - #9 French Roast | 2nd - #7 P S Commander | 3rd - #4 Bear Character
COMMENTARY : The #9 FRENCH ROAST is taking a big plunge in class to this $8,000 level after finishing last in a $25,000 claimer; this is always a tough handicapping decision as to what to do with a horse like this so watch him in the paddock and go from there; tough call ??? The #7 P S COMMANDER looked good winning in a fast time against restricted $8,000 company; he was claimed that day and the connections opt to run him right back for the same price, there isn’t much speed in this one so he could sneak away with a pretty easy lead. The #4 BEAR CHARACTER adds a little more confusion to an already tough race as he is another taking a substantial drop in price; he has a nice worktab since arriving at Hastings.Race #10
1st - #8 Up Sweep | 2nd - #5 Sultry Eyes | 3rd - #2 You’rejustlikeme
COMMENTARY : The #8 UP SWEEP is cutting back to a sprint today after being a pace casualty going long last time; she should get a nice trip close to the pace so I think she’ll rebound with a good effort today. The #5 SULTRY EYES is in an easier spot today after tackling a tough group of open $5,000 mares; there could be enough speed in this dash to aid her off-the-pace style so I’m going to give her another shot. The #2 YOU’REJUSTLIKEME ran reasonably well in her first start for her new barn, she’s the inside speed so she deserves respect in this heat.
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