Mike's Race Analysis October 19, 2008
Race #1
1st - #2 Hot Defense | 2nd - #3 Gallery Girl | 3rd - #1 Rock Royal
COMMENTARY : The #2 HOT DEFENSE exits a pretty quick heat at Emerald in which he ended up a decent third and with him facing primarily fillies in this dash I like his chances in his Hastings debut. The #3 GALLERY GIRL looks like the best of the four fillies that are in the lineup and if she can shake loose early she could post a wire-to-wire score. The #1 ROCK ROYAL missed the break in her comeback race then rushed up to jojn the leaders before getting noticeably tired on the final bend; I think she’s much better than that race shows and if she can break with the field then her chances obviously improve.
Race #2
1st - #2 Scots Pine | 2nd - #5 Slick Victor | 3rd - #4 Fire Boss
COMMENTARY : The #2 SCOTS PINE got caught in a pace duel last time and it cost him as he tired in the late going to finish third; he’ll race without blinkers today and I think that will help him relax so I think we’ll see a winning effort from him. The #5 SLICK VICTOR almost took advantage of the pace duel last time out as he rallied from well back to just miss in a photo; if my top pick doesn’t rate a bit better today then this guy will likely catch him and get the win. The #4 FIRE BOSS is another off-the-pace threat although he isn’t as accomplished as others at this longer distance.
Race #3
1st - #4 Kinda Special | 2nd - #1 Entry | 3rd - #3 Fraserview
COMMENTARY : The #4 KINDA SPECIAL is back down at a realistic level and with not much other early speed signed on I think he’s a strong wire-to-wire candidate. The #1 WHEN IN ROME and the #1a COMMODORE CRAIG are strictly the ones to beat in here although both are better on fast tracks; there won’t be any value in playing the #1 Entry so it could be a good opportunity if the track is ‘off’ to play against them. The # 3 FRASERVIEW is always solid at this level and he seems to run well over any kind of track so he’s worth a long look as well.
Race #4
1st - #3 Brenniven | 2nd - #1 Entry | 3rd - #6 Royal Rags
COMMENTARY : The #3 BRENNIVEN seem to appreciate the easier company as he finished second when dropped in for a price for the first time; he has speed and will likely get the lead so he should be tough in this spot. The #1 ENTRY are the only two can possibly knock off the #3 BRENNIVEN and both seem to be on the improve although the #1 DUELLOING PISTOL was scratched two weeks back when injured in behind the gate; the #1a LAST TRIBUTE is facing an easier group after performing reasonably well with no-tag maidens so this looks like a strong ENTRY. The #6 ROYAL RAGS ran evenly in his debut finishing fourth and should improve today; he’s the best of the rest.
Race #5
1st - #5 Liberty Jack | 2nd - #3 Share An Otis | 3rd - #9 Brave Irish
COMMENTARY : The #5 LIBERTY JACK sports a sharp work (1:00.60) in preparation for this dash after a disappointing effort last time out; he has speed and if his best effort surfaces today he’ll win and he could be a generous price. The #3 SHARE AN OTIS will likely take a lot of money at the mutuels but I’m not sold on him; he exits a ‘live’ heat that produced some next-out winners but he still hasn’t passed a horse yet and I’m not sure if he’s fast enough to get the lead; tough call. The #9 BRAVE IRISH had been going well and looking like horses that was going to win one soon but he turned in a ‘clunker’ last time; it may have been the ‘off’ track so give him another shot in this race that has a lot of early speed in it which will suit his off-the-pace style quite nicely.
Race #6
1st - #4 Smart Gamble | 2nd - #7 Cielo’s Lad | 3rd - #1 Callinan
COMMENTARY : The #4 SMART GAMBLE has been in top form of late (two wins and a third in his last three starts) and I’ll gamble that he can handle this longer trip. The #7 CIELO’S LAD got his first win of the season last time out and with a lot of speed in this one he could strike again. The #1 CALLINAN is in with older company today after his second consecutive win with three year olds; he’s adapted beautifully to a mile and a sixteenth but this race looks like it could be tough on him position-wise so I’ve left him in the third spot.
Race #7
1st - #5 Colondelivery | 2nd - #6 Golden Pursuit | 3rd - #3 Joyride
COMMENTARY:The #5 COLONDELIVERY did well to close up to be second on a track that strongly favoured speed horses; he’s right back in with the same kind and should be tough to beat. Both the #6 GOLDEN PURSUIT and the #3 JOYRIDE got a little too far back on that same ‘speed biased’ track and deserve another shot running over a different track today.
Race #8
1st - #9 Feu River | 2nd - #3 Deputy Allstar | 3rd - #5 My Friend Geoff
COMMENTARY : The #9 FEU RIVER is down in class and finds a field filled with early speed so this appears to be a perfect opportunity for him. The #3 DEPUTY ALLSTAR was very game throughout while running third at this same level and unfortunately for him this dash is going to set up quite similar so he may have to settle for another minor prize. The #5 MY FRIEND GEOFF had a better showing last time as he dropped down to this level from the non-two $20,000 ranks; he should get a good stalking trip which will give him every shot to win; definite contender.
Race #9
1st - #5 Arthurlooksgood | 2nd - #4 Ookashada | 3rd - #3 The Visualiser
COMMENTARY : The #5 ARTHURLOOKSGOOD ran very well last time out in the $75,000 Alberta Classic finishing second to the Alberta older horse Teagues Fight; this is an easier task for him and with his outside post he should sit a perfect trip on the outside of the #3 THE VISUALISER and could be tough to beat from there. The #4 OOKASHADA is back out at his best distance and with him facing a considerably easier group on paper he’s the one to beat. The #3 THE VISUALISER is looking to give the connections their third feature event win in three consecutive weekends (Almost Time-Futurity and Rosberg - Premiers).
Race #10
1st - #3 Afleet Mac | 2nd - #2 Canuck Buck | 3rd - #5 Akickatthekat
COMMENTARY :The #3 AFLEET MAC ran on well to be second at this level in his latest and with numerous speed types in the lineup he should get another good setup. The #2 CANUCK BUCK broke slowly from a tough post last time which led to his poor showing as the 9-5 favourite; he’ll definitely be more of a factor from the better post that he has this time. The #5 AKICKATTHEKAT broke his maiden very easily two weeks back and looks like one ready for tougher competition; leading rider stays on board.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A GREAT DAY !!!