Mike's Race Analysis October 18, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  #4 Kadence | 2nd  -  #3 Sir Gallant | 3rd  -  #6 Victim Of Love 

COMMENTARY : The #4 KADENCE just finished beating a similar group going long after setting a very lively pace; he should enjoy the cut back to a sprint and be tough to beat at a much shorter price. The #3 SIR GALLANT has been off for nearly six months but was running with better company back then and I think off of his decent worktab and the fact that there will be a decent pace he’ll be a threat in the stretch. The #6 VICTIM OF LOVE is the fastest of the bunch and will likely clear and get the early lead but he really isn’t in top form right now so he may have troubles staying the trip even at this lower level.

Race #2

1st   -  #7 Stylen Jaynee | 2nd  -  #3 Chianti Dancer | 3rd  -  #4 Bamboo Diva 

COMMENTARY : The #7 STYLEN JAYNEE has been taking on older mares in some tougher races in her last couple and if she can repeat her effort of two starts back then I think she’ll get the money. The #3 CHIANTI DANCER is another that has been banging heads with tougher company and will appreciate getting back in with her own age group; she’ll likely be in a perfect striking position and should be in the top three but she probably won’t possess much value. The #4 BAMBOO DIVA really turned her dismal season around with a huge run two weeks back and with no real other early speed in this dash she has a shot to repeat.

Race #3

1st   -  #7 By Magic | 2nd  -  #4 Da Svendonya | 3rd  -  #3 You Won’t Like It 

COMMENTARY : The #7 BY MAGIC has missed the board in all four of her starts here at Hastings this year which is highly unusual for such a consistent mare; she’s down at an alltime low level and with not much other pace in the race I think she’ll get the much needed confidence boost with a wire-to-wire score. The #4 DA SVENDONYA has turned in a couple of good efforts since coming north to Hastings; she’s been freshened up a bit and has some nice works so my top pick better be at her best if she’s going to beat this mare. The #3 YOU WON’T LIKE IT has hit the board in her last two at his level and is the next logical one to round out the top three. 

Race #4

1st   -  #8 Katana Ken | 2nd  -  #10 Dark Hall | 3rd  -  #7 Amber Light 

COMMENTARY : The #8 KATANA KEN gets an easier assignment today after a decent fifth place run for $25,000; there appears to be a fair bit of speed in the race so his off-the-pace style could get him all the money. The #10 DARK HALL has turned in two solid efforts of late but must deal with the tricky outside post going six furlongs; he’ll need a decent trip and if he gets it he’ll be tough to beat. The #7 AMBER LIGHT closed up well to be fourth and if he continues to improve he could be the ‘value’ horse in this dash.

Race #5

1st   -  #1 Vying Star | 2nd  -  #2 Orchid’s Silver | 3rd  -  #8 Bright Spring 

COMMENTARY : The #1 VYING STAR should get a perfect trip down on the inside which could play out as the difference in this field of fillies that are so closely matched. The #2 ORCHID’S SILVER improved noticeably in her first try around two turns and if she gets a little more pace up front she’ll be tough to hold off in the stretch. The #8 BRIGHT SPRING enjoyed a pretty comfortable tempo last time which led to her runner-up effort; she seemed to be better with the addition of Lasix and is another in with a great chance to break her maiden today.  

Race #6

1st   -  #5 Sheen Falls | 2nd  -  #6 Heaven On Hold | 3rd  -  #2 Preservata 

COMMENTARY : The #5 SHEEN FALLS had a ton of trouble in her Hastings debut and she did amazingly well to finish where she did at the end; there should be a contested pace today and I think she’ll take advantage and get the victory. The #6 HEAVEN ON HOLD is back in with her own age group this after noon after facing some tough older mares; she has an excellent post for her style and is very ‘live’ in this spot. The #2 PRESERVATA is probably the best sprinter in the lineup but this will be her third start in three consecutive weekends; tough call ??

Race #7

1st   -  #1 Slews Prospect | 2nd  -  #6 Mr. Nutcracker | 3rd  -  #4 Market Flair 

COMMENTARY : The #1 SLEWS PROSPECT defeated open $15,000 company to starts back so he’s definitely the one to beat down at this restricted non-three level for $8,000; he should get the lead and never be caught. The #6 MR. NUTCRACKER has really found his niche running long as he was just an average sprinter and he’s really been impressive in his distance tries; if he can get an early challenger to run with my top pick then his chances obviously improve. The #4 MARKET FLAIR crushed an easier field of non-two $8,000 claimers five weeks back and if he’s maintained his form then he has a decent shot as well.

Race #8

1st   -  #5 Private Action | 2nd  -  #7 Splash Power | 3rd  -  #2 Goldy Fox 

COMMENTARY : The #5 PRIVATE ACTION suffered from a wide trip last time and had to settle for third but with a better draw today I think she’ll make the lead and should be tough to catch. The #7 SPLASH POWER hasn’t had much luck since arriving back at Hastings with three tough trips but if she can get a much needed favourable trip she can most certainly win the money. The #2 GOLDY FOX was a no-threat runner-up in her latest and appears to be the best off-the-pace filly in the race so she must be respected in the exotics.  

Race #9

1st   -  #1 Summer Song | 2nd  -  #2 Yoorock Gal | 3rd  -  #3 Restless Lady 

COMMENTARY : The #1 SUMMER SONG is probably not as talented as some in here but she’s facing of group of older mares that all seem to be at their best sprinting and with the likelihood of a contested pace she’ll get a perfect scenario to get her second win in a week. The #2 YOOROCK GAL is the best filly in the race but hasn’t raced for two and half months and will try and go long off of some good works; this isn’t the strongest field so she might be able to take them all the way on the head end. The #3 RESTLESS LADY is a filly that is on a roll right now and even though she hasn’t had any success at this trip (although she’s never been this good so it may be a mistake to assume that she can’t run this far) I like her chances.

Race #10

1st   -  #1 Lennylooksgood | 2nd  -  #2 Heza Playboy | 3rd  -  #6 Gentleman Vye 

COMMENTARY : The #1 LENNYLOOKSGOOD looks to have a found a field he should be able to beat; strong wire-to-wire threat. The #2 HEZA PLAYBOY ran his best race to date last time out despite a wide opening half-mile and should be followed back in this spot. The #6 GENTLEMAN VYE chased a fast pace out in the three path in his debut and if he can get a little luckier with the trip he’s one eligible to get better.  

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