Mike's Race Analysis October 13, 2008
Race #1
1st - #6 Alferrari | 2nd - #5 No Sox Fox | 3rd - #7 Smart Gamble
COMMENTARY : The #6 ALFERRARI looks to be the controlling speed which could be deciding factor in the final outcome; he should get the jump on the #5 NO SOX FOX which is why I’ll side with him. The latter finally got a victory (first in 2 years) as he was dropped down the $5,000 level; if he can close to my top pick then he has a big chance of repeating. The #7 SMART GAMBLE ran through his conditions (winning a non-two and a non-three) in his last couple but this is a tougher test even though he’s in at a lower claiming price.Race #2
1st - #3 Devilish Wish | 2nd - #5 Turn To Fly | 3rd - #8 Wild Breeze
COMMENTARY : The #3 DEVILISH WISH ran very well in her debut although she never seemed comfortable down on the inside and likely would’ve won if she hadn’t been so intimidated. The #5 TURN TO FLY showed good speed in his lone run at Emerald and looks like the next logical play on paper; solid connections. The #8 WILD BREEZE has a string of nice works and could ‘live’ in her debut for a barn that sends them out running.Race #3
1st - #1 Entry | 2nd - #8 Came Up Roses | 3rd - #4 Serengeti Sunrise
COMMENTARY : The #1 IRISH DELTA is way down in class after a narrow loss for 35,000 but there are other class droppers in the lineup so will need her A-game; she appears to have the best speed and that could be the difference. The #8 CAME UP ROSES is also taking a big dip in price after an expensive $45,000 claim but might be at a disadvantage in positioning which is why I’ve left her in the second spot. The #4 SERENGETI SUNRISE has had a great season and is pretty versatile in her running style which will come in handy in the dash; she seems outgunned on paper but if the top two are not at their best (which could be possible) she has a shot to win.
Race #4
1st - #6 Money X Change | 2nd - #3 Jajas Legacy | 3rd - #8 Holy Judgement
COMMENTARY : The #6 MONEY X CHANGE has been pretty consistent at this level likely just needs a repeat of his latest to win this heat. The #3 JAJAS LEGACY is down in class searching for his third win of the year and if he can avoid a pace battle he’s the one most eligible to beat my top pick. The #8 HOLY JUDGEMENT wasn’t disgraced in his first try at this price and with him getting his winning pilot back he could be more of a threat this time.Race #5
1st - #6 Peacebethejourney | 2nd - #5 Harriette Topper | 3rd - #1 Zodiacal Light
COMMENTARY : The #6 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY toyed with a $5,000 group of mares a couple of weeks back and got her first win of the year and as we saw last season when she’s on her game she can string a bunch of wins together. The #5 HARRIETTE TOPPER is down in price after a try with $15,000 fillies; she was competitive at this level two starts back and deserves respect in this spot. The #1 ZODIACAL LIGHT has been lightly raced this year and has been better in her last couple with the addition of blinkers; there is a ton of speed in here and even though she isn’t best mare in the lineup she could still get a big piece of it being an off-the-pace runner.Race #6
1st - #2 Hunter’s Lad | 2nd - #5 Twoforty Gordy | 3rd - #1 Singing Dixieland
COMMENTARY : The #2 HUNTER’S LAD got shuffled back early and it cost him position which is why he was so far back; he’s nicely drawn and should be right close to the pace and I like him to rebound with a good effort. The #5 TWOFORTY GORDY had a nice trip in behind a fast pace and pretty much just held his position in third; this race has come up easier so he’s another with a good shot to get the money. The #1 SINGING DIXIELAND had a wide trip but should get a better one from the rail this afternoon; ‘value’ play.Race #7
1st - #1 Badgett’s Star | 2nd - #7 Big Bertha | 3rd - #4 Katelliena
COMMENTARY : The #1 BADGETT’S STAR is in a much easier spot today and with the rail she’s going to be tough to catch. The #7 BIG BERTHA looks like the main threat to ‘Badgett’ today as she was only beaten by a half-length despite racing in the three path. The top two are far more accomplished than the rest and they look like the EXACTOR. The #4 KATELLIENA won at this level going long in her most recent race but with this dash coming up considerably tougher she may have to settle for third today.Race #8
1st - #4 Savo Island | 2nd - #8 Peaceful Turzia | 3rd - #7 Snow Moon
COMMENTARY : The #4 SAVO ISLAND and the #8 PEACEFUL TURZIA have been in top form and are the best sprinters in the field; I’ll give the edge to the #4 SAVO ISLAND because he will likely get the lead without using too much energy early and I think he’ll have enough left in the tank to hold off a very sharp #8 PEACEFUL TURZIA. The #7 SNOW MOON has been a consistent guy throughout the year and should round out the TRIACTOR.
Race #9
1st - #1 Vintner | 2nd - #5 Lord Vic | 3rd - #7 Chivago
COMMENTARY : The #1 VINTNER captured #3 of the Marathon series which was his first try in these longer races and he strikes me as one that will get better so I like him to repeat. The #5 LORD VIC finally ran to his potential last time after being a non-factor at low odds in his first few marathon races; big threat again today. The #7 CHIVAGO wasn’t all that far behind the top two last time and he didn’t get the best of trips so if he can work out a decent trip today he’ll be right there.Race #10
1st - #5 Lennylooksgood | 2nd - #8 Master Foolish | 3rd - #1 Fourth Top
COMMENTARY : The #5 LENNYLOOKSGOOD just needs a repeat of his last race to beat this group; he has better spacing in between races and should prove tough to beat. The #8 MASTER FOOLISH tired his runaway-and-hide tactics last time out and almost stayed on for the win but he was caught in deep stretch; this race has come up tougher than his last but one still has to respect his speed and play him in the exotics. The #1 FOURTH TOP was a distant third in his career debut and if he can improve a bit then he could be the ‘value’ play in this one.Race #11
1st - #3 Mr. Gobetween | 2nd - #7 Super Steve | 3rd - #4 Valhalla River
COMMENTARY : The #3 MR. GOBETWEEN has a sharp work for his return and likely only need to be as good as he was last time to win against this group; strong wire-to-wire candidate. The #7 SUPER STEVE should get a nice trip sitting close to what should be a comfortable pace so I like his chances of running in the top three. The #4 VALHALLA RIVER raced a little greenly in his debut but at least he showed that he has some talent and if he can be a little more professional in his second start he could surprise some people.
GOOD LUCK AT ALL AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING !!