Mike's Race Analysis October 12, 2008
Race #1
1st - #1 My Hearts Desire | 2nd - #5 Fire Boss | 3rd - #3 Metatron
COMMENTARY : The #1 MY HEARTS DESIRE should get a perfect trip sitting behind a contested early pace and if he can repeat his last race that kind of effort should be good enough to win this afternoon. The #5 FIRE BOSS is another that will appreciate a fast pace up front and sometimes moving to a new barn brings out a better performance and we’ll see if that happens in huis first start for Pat Jarvis. The #3 METATRON is likely to get pushed early by the #2 CELT and unless he can rate and stay off of the speed then he might have to settle for second or third again today.Race #2
1st - #4 Halo’s Miss | 2nd - #1 Lady Shogun | 3rd - #5 Top Native
COMMENTARY : The #4 HALO’S MISS had an encouraging debut finishing a close fourth at long odds and if she improves slightly she’ll be tough to beat. The #1 LADY SHOGUN battled on the pace and stayed on well to be third despite racing three wide; she has the rail and will likely be the favourite to take these maidens wire-to-wire. The #5 TOP NATIVE was well-backed in her last race at Emerald after a big layoff but didn’t run to the hype; she’ll get blinkers and really isn’t facing a tough crew so she’s got a shot.
Race #3
1st - #5 Savahana | 2nd - #4 Queen’s Emblem | 3rd - #10 Darlene That Rowdy
COMMENTARY : The #5 SAVAHANA showed a little more tactical speed and she almost got the victory at this same level and distance; there doesn’t appear to be too much competition for the early lead so she should get an ideal trip and have every shot to win. The #4 QUEEN’S EMBLEM is making a distance and blinker change and sports a sharp work which is all I need to take a chance on her in this spot. The #10 DARLENE THAT ROWDY just needs to work out a decent trip from her outside post to threaten.Race #4
1st - #8 Annie Laurie | 2nd - #4 Count Your Dreams | 3rd - #1 Kirschgarten
COMMENTARY : I think that the #8 ANNIE LAURIE is the best filly in the race and I’ll gamble that she can handle this longer trip; she didn’t seem comfortable closing on the rail last time which is why she didn’t get up for the win. She’s bred to like this trip. The #4 COUNT YOUR DREAMS tried sprinting (not by design – no long races were filling) in her last which is simply something she just can’t do so she’ll be far more comfortable at this trip and with a nice draw she should be in a perfect striking position. The #1 KIRSCHGARTEN took advantage of a hot pace and got up for a 13-1 victory against non-two’s for $8,000; she’s another trying this distance for the first time.Race #5
1st - #1 Big Shiny | 2nd - #6 Deputy Allstar | 3rd - #9 Aragorn
COMMENTARY : The #1 BIG SHINY has been facing tougher company this year and hasn’t gotten on track at all; this has been a winning move for many horses dropping out of the non-two $20,000 category into these non-two $8,000 so we’ll see if this drop will bring a better result for him. The #6 DEPUTY ALLSTAR was finally able to string a couple of races close together and it made a big difference as he was a game runner-up at this level two weeks back; his speed will make him very dangerous again today but he likely won’t possess much value. The #9 ARAGORN could be the ‘value’ play as he takes the same drop that the #1 BIG SHINY is taking and if he can rate off of a what should be a decent pace he could surprise some people.Race #6
1st - #3 Seminole Brave | 2nd - #6 Bank Emblem | 3rd - #7 Soldiers Return
COMMENTARY : The #3 SEMINOLE BRAVE battled on a fast pace going nine furlongs and ended up a well beaten third but he’ll return to his best distance this afternoon and I like him to take this field wire-to-wire. The #6 BANK EMBLEM has been a very consistent guy this year and is strictly the one to beat as he just missed in his last and has some versatility in his running style which may come in handy in this dash. The #7 SOLDIERS RETURN turned in a big effort in his return after a three month rest and will likely be better today although he’ll need to be; he’s in a tougher spot today.Race #7
1st - #6 Till The Storm | 2nd - #2 Entry | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #6 TILL THE STORM has been on a roll of late which can’t be said for most of these and sharp horses beat more talented ones often in the fall and I’ll gamble that occurs today. The #2 SARATOGA AVENUE looks like the stronger half of a ‘live’ entry after his game runner-up effort in the $50,000 Derby Consolation; he battled near the pace that day and held well and a repeat performance gives him a big shot of winning; his entrymate #2b VALDERO needs to rebound after a disappointing effort last time if he’s to help out the #2 SARATOGA AVENUE in case there is speed duel. The #1 BEARS HOME RUN had his three race winning streak snapped in the BC Derby but he should find theses guys more to his liking; look for improvement today.Race #8
1st - #3 True Metropolitan | 2nd - #5 Spaghetti Mouse | 3rd - #6 Krazy Koffee
COMMENTARY : The BC Premiers has drawn an exciting field that has Horse-Of-The-Year honours on the line as both the #5 SPAGHETTI MOUSE and the #6 KRAZY KOFFEE put their respective winning streaks in jeopardy this afternoon. Ironically though neither will likely be the favourite as that status will go to the reigning Sovereign Award winner as top older horse in Canada #3 TRUE METROPOLITAN. ‘True Met’ is coming into the Premiers off of four consecutive second place finishes but I think he’ll get back in the winner’s circle today; he gets a big break in the weights this year (after toting a heavy impost of 129 pounds last year and lost to Sir Gallovic) because of the allowance conditions he’ll get 4 pounds from the ‘Mouse’ and only has to give 1 pound to the Derby winner Krazy Koffee which will mean a lot at crunch time going 11 furlongs. The #5 SPAGHETTI MOUSE opted to skip the Churchill three weeks ago and the connections have decided to work up to the Premiers which is tricky for any horse; he has excellent tactical speed and will either be on the lead or tracking ‘True Met’. The #6 KRAZY KOFFEE has been an absolute professional this year and has parlayed some talent and a keen desire to win into a five-race winning streak and a shot to be Horse-Of-The-Year; he won’t have any troubles with the distance the only problem will be is that he’s facing two experienced superstars that are both in top form.Race #9
1st - #7 Monday Mystery | 2nd - #2 Lady Preacher | 3rd - #3 Tongue And Groove
COMMENTARY : The #7 MONDAY MYSTERY was a clear second at this same level in her last start and with her likely to get a great trip on or near the lead she’s going to be tough to beat this time. The #2 LADY PREACHER sat a very slow pace in her comeback race and did well to come back on and get second after losing a position in the stretch; she’ll likely be ridden a little more aggressively this time and should be the main danger to my top pick. The #3 TONGUE AND GROOVE got hung out three wide the entire trip in her latest as the 3-5 favourite and will just need a little pace help to threaten for the win.GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON AT THE RACES !!!
