Mike's Race Analysis November 2, 2008
Race #1
1st - #7 Bangalow | 2nd - #10 Bear Character | 3rd - #5 Kinda Special
COMMENTARY : The #7 BANGALOW was very game in winning last weekend over a field that was a tad tougher than this one; if he can run close to the same type of race again he’ll win again. The #10 BEAR CHARACTER isn’t at his preferred distance and this post can’t help so even though he’s down in price once again he may need some luck to hit the board. The #5 KINDA SPECIAL flopped when the blinkers were added last time out and I’m willing to give him another shot without them today.Race #2
1st - #3 Bright Spring | 2nd - #2 Devil's Attire | 3rd - #4 Dark Hall
COMMENTARY : The filly #3 BRIGHT SPRING has an excellent shot of beating boys in this one as there isn’t much early pace at all so she’s likely to get things pretty easy up front; she’s been better with the addition of Lasix. The #2 DEVIL’S ATTIRE has been off for about six weeks after a disappointing run with no-tag maidens; some of his earlier races would be good enough to beat most of these. The #4 DARK HALL is facing tougher company but should be in a perfect position early so I look for her to be in the top three.Race #3
1st - #1 Ten Years After | 2nd - #5 Officer's Approval | 3rd - #3 A Cut Above
COMMENTARY : The #1 TEN YEARS AFTER was in a little too tough last weekend but he returns to a maiden event so he’ll definitely be more of a factor today. There appears to be a fair amount of early speed in this one so he could get set up nicely. The #5 OFFICER’S APPROVAL turned in a good effort finishing a close third last time out and if he can avoid a pace duel then he has a big shot of winning. The #3 A CUT ABOVE hasn’t run to his quick workouts all season long but he obviously has some ability and I’m not going to give up on him just yet especially in this soft maiden allowance heat.Race #4
1st - #5 Master Foolish | 2nd - #10 Black Austin | 3rd - #1 Diego's Special
COMMENTARY : Today looks like the day for the #5 MASTER FOOLISH as he should to take this field wire-to-wire; he only needs to repeat his last race and he gets the money. The #10 BLACK AUSTIN had a rough trip last time which contributed to his poor showing but if he can get a little luck going his way he has a good chance of hitting the board; value play!!! The #1 DIEGO’S SPECIAL has been getting beaten up on the pace going long and might appreciate this shorter trip.Race #5
1st - #2 Mr. Nutcracker | 2nd - #9 Willie Katchem | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #2 MR. NUTCRACKER has improved dramatically since stretching out in distance and if he can work his way off the rail (seems better with an outside trip) he should be tough to beat; his numbers are the best. The #9 WILLIE KATCHEM dropped into a conditional race earlier this year to get his only win of the season and if he’s still in decent form then he could threaten for the win. The #1 PREDATOR and the #1a MARKET FLAIR are both capable and deserve respect in this spot.Race #6
1st - #5 Kadence | 2nd - #6 Organist | 3rd - #9 Colondelivery
COMMENTARY : The #5 KADENCE is a better horse when he’s on the lead and with the only other speed horse being another one of the MacPherson (#6 ORGANIST) runners I like his chances of making the top early and if he does he shouldn’t get beat. The #6 ORGANIST took advantage of his inside draw and posted a game wire-to-wire win against similar and is going to be tough again today. The #9 COLONDELIVERY pops up with a big performance every once and awhile and to me he looks as good as anything else for the TRIACTOR and he’ll be a decent price.Race #7
1st - #1 Bank Emblem | 2nd - #7 The Visualiser | 3rd - #6 Seminole Brave
COMMENTARY : The #1 BANK EMBLEM has beaten most of these guys on a regular basis throughout the year and with him getting the rail I think he’s going to be tough to beat again today. The #7 THE VISUALISER is a pretty consistent sprinter and if there is a pace duel he could be the one sitting in the perfect spot behind the speed ready to pounce on any tiring leaders. The #6 SEMINOLE BRAVE gave up the lead too easily (after a sharp break) last time which led to his runner-up effort to the #1 BANK EMBLEM; he has the ability to win today but I’m a little concerned that the #5 ENFORCEMENT is going to get in the way forcing him three wide and I don’t think he can win from there.Race #8
1st - #6 Diamond Berries | 2nd - #1 Entry | 3rd - #2 Infinite Wealth
COMMENTARY : The #6 DIAMOND BERRIES had a nice trip when narrowly losing to next-out winner Summer Song and if she can get a similar trip today then she’ll be a big threat in this competitive heat. The #1 duo of #1 BROKEN HEARTED and the #1a BEARS ARTISTE have good chances as well; the latter is on a three race winning streak two of which were Alberta bred stakes races. The #2 INFINITE WEALTH never seemed comfortable at all in her last as she was getting out the whole race and wound up a no-threat fourth at 4-5; she’s obviously capable of beating this kind but will need her best to do it.Race #9
1st - #5 Grat Substitution | 2nd - #9 Aragorn | 3rd - #10 Afleet Mac
COMMENTARY : The #5 GRAT SUBSTITUTION exits a very quick heat in which he finished a solid fourth; he’s down in price and if he repeats his last he won’t get beat. The #9 ARAGORN looked like a winner in his last race but hung late; there is a lot of speed in this dash and a well timed move could get him a big piece of the purse. The same applies for the #10 AFLEET MAC who also made a menacing move on the turn before flattening out in the stretch.Race #10
1st - #5 Midnight Babe | 2nd - #1 Sunrise Finale | 3rd - #6 Notis Me
COMMENTARY : The #5 MIDNIGHT BABE raced very well from a tough post last weekend and with quite a few speed types signed on she should be a major factor in the stretch. The #1 SUNRISE FINALE will also be a strong presence in the late going if a speed duel materializes; she’s been in good form going long but I think she can sprint with these gals. The #6 NOTIS ME has been running with older horses and will appreciate getting back in with her own age group; she looks like the best of the speed fillies.
Race #11
1st - #6 Alarico | 2nd - #3 Wannabe A Star | 3rd - #5 Vision Of Roses
COMMENTARY : The #6 ALARICO has been very consistent sprinting throughout the year and he should be able to beat this field. The #3 WANNABE A STAR has been running with a little cheaper company but he’s been in some very fast heats so I think he fits nicely with this group and is a strong wire-to-wire threat. The #5 VISION OF ROSES hooked into a tougher field of $15,000 three year olds last time and might be worth following if the price is right.Race #12
1st - #3 Ookashada | 2nd - #2 Arkhill | 3rd - #4 Soldiers Return
COMMENTARY : The #3 OOKASHADA fell victim to a very slow pace last time out and he could only manage to gain the runner-up spot but with more distance and more speed in the lineup I think he’ll get up for the win this time. The #2 ARKHILL missed some training prior to the Derby so his fourth place effort was better than it appears; he faces older horses but I have to respect the fact that MacPherson decided to keep him in training so he’s obviously doing well enough to take a shot in this race. The #4 SOLDIERS RETURN has never run long so nine furlongs could be a stretch for him but I like this little guy and wouldn’t be surprised if he was battling for the win at the end. He won on opening day and this is closing day - hmmm???
THANKS FOR JOINING US ON-LINE THROUGHOUT THE SEASON - HOPEFULLY SOME INSIGHT HAS LED TO SOME WINNING WAGERS.
HAVE A SAFE AND PROSPEROUS OFF SEASON AND WE’LL SEE EVERYONE NEXT APRIL.