Mike's Race Analysis November 1, 2008
Race #1
1st - #9 Valhalla River | 2nd - #6 Super Steve | 3rd - #4 Harvard Grad
COMMENTARY : The #9 VALHALLA RIVER is a lightly raced gelding that has improved with each start and I think the move to an outside post will help him. The #6 SUPER STEVE had every chance to win last time and I guess he's the logical play but he won't possess any value so I've tried to beat him. The #4 HARVARD GRAD is another that will be under-valued and is also one that has had a few shots at breaking his maiden; the blinkers come off so perhaps better will be in store this afternoon.Race #2
1st - #1a Luke Stallwalker | 2nd - #2 Monsterinthecloset | 3rd - #4 Arenalattude
COMMENTARY : The #1A LUKE STALLWALKER needs only to repeat his last game effort and he'll get the money. The #2 MONSTERINTHECLOSET improved noticeably in his second start and with him facing easier company today he has a big shot as well. The #4 ARENALATTUDE wasn't beaten very far in his first try for his new connections; he has better spacing in between races for this dash so he could threaten for the win.Race #3
1st - #1 Nevah Nevah | 2nd - #2 Mate Of Mine | 3rd - #6 Crusher Dust
COMMENTARY : The #1 NEVAH NEVAH is catching a very soft field in this unusual maiden heat which will be run at a mile and three-eighths; he's miles the best on paper and should win. The #2 MATE OF MINE is exiting a couple of 'live' sprints in which he finished up well; he's never run long but against this crew he won't need to be overly impressive to hit the board. The #6 CRUSHER DUST had a rough trip last time and might be worth following back in the exotics.Race #4
1st - #5 Mr. Nutcracker | 2nd - #8 Fraserview | 3rd - #9 Cielo’s Lad
COMMENTARY : The #5 MR. NUTCRACKER has found a field with a number of 'need-the-lead' types in it so his off-the-pace style should give him a big chance to win. The #8 FRASERVIEW is a solid open company performer that is very 'live' and is probably the safe play in this dash. The #9 CIELO'S LAD is shortening up to a sprint but he's another 'closer' that could get a big piece of the purse especially with all of the early speed in this race.Race #5
1st - #9 Lady Vitesse | 2nd - #2 Faith To The End | 3rd - #4 Grace’s Star
COMMENTARY : The #9 LADY VITESSE looks to be the best filly in the lineup and with her having some versatility in her running styles I really like her in this spot. The #2 FAITH TO THE END is the inside speed and will get pressured early but I think she'll last the longest of the pace horses. The #4 GRACE'S STAR isn't the most consistent filly but on occasion she fires big and can beat a field like this; leading rider jumps back in the saddle.Race #6
1st - #9 Mr. Ichiban | 2nd - #2 Akickatthekat | 3rd - #4 Shadow Tamer
COMMENTARY : The #9 MR. ICHIBAN has the best long races of any one in the group and if he can get a decent trip from his outside post then I think he'll be the winner. The #2 AKICKATTHEKAT is razor sharp right now and he's one that might be able to handle this longer trip. The #4 SHADOW TAMER had a rough trip with older horses which led to his disappointing showing; he's back in with his own age group and should be more of a factor this afternoon.Race #7
1st - #2 Timeless Dancer | 2nd - #4 Feu River | 3rd - #3 J D’s Carson Copy
COMMENTARY : The #2 TIMELESS DANCER is back at his best distance after a no-threat run sprinting; there isn't a lot of speed in this one so if he can get the same trip that he did two starts back then I really like his chances. The #4 FEU RIVER should like this longer trip as well as the easier company. The #3 J D'S CARSON COPY has been in good form of late at this distance and should be respected again today.Race #8
1st - #8 Include The Grand | 2nd - #5 Big Bertha | 3rd - #6 Smokin Danielle
COMMENTARY : The #8 INCLUDE THE GRAND has hooked into some tough company in her last two starts but today she gets into a much better spot and I think she'll be tough returning to a sprint. The #5 BIG BERTHA ran a good race last time and she's shown in the past that she can be competitive at this level; dangerous with a good trip. The #6 SMOKIN DANIELLE didn't seem to care much for the 'wet-fast' conditions last time as she wasn't a factor at all; rain is in the forecast so it's a tough call with her.Race #9
1st - #6 Vintner | 2nd - #1 Just Like Dreads | 3rd - #5 Beau Run
COMMENTARY : The #6 VINTNER looked very strong when beating a similar field three weeks back and I don't see any reason to go against him. The #1 JUST LIKE DREADS woke up with a good performance last time and is one that can definitely handle the distance so if my top pick slips up a bit this guy could win the money. The #5 BEAU RUN made a bit of a run on the final turn to finish third but he should be better today as he's had a run over the course and he has stayed here to train.Race #10
1st - #2 Avalanche Bay | 2nd - #6 Hola Mamacita | 3rd - #1 You Won’t Like It
COMMENTARY : The #2 AVALANCHE BAY is catching a pretty soft group that she should be able to beat. The #6 HOLA MAMACITA hasn't taken to our Hastings oval at all but down at this price she could be a factor. The #1 YOU WON'T LIKE IT has been a solid TRIACTOR filly all season long.
Race #11
1st - #1 Angel Came Down | 2nd - #3 Tsarmina | 3rd - #9 Katelliena
COMMENTARY : The #1ANGEL CAME DOWN was reclaimed by her former connections and they've found a nice spot for her to return; she has the best speed and the rail so I like her to get her fifth win the year. The #3 TSARMINA just missed in a photo last weekend going a bit farther at this same price; strong Triactor threat. The #9 KATELLIENA is 'live' in this spot as she drops down from the $15,000 tag (she won at that price) and if she can get a decent trip from her outside post she has a shot as well.
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