Mike's Race Analysis May 17, 2008
Race #1
1st - # 3 El Sinaloense | 2nd - # 2 Seismologist | 3rd - # 4 Joey's Smokin Gun
COMMENTARY : The #4 EL SINALOENSE seems to have been going well in his morning trials and with Alvarado aboard I think this guy is pretty 'live'. The #3 SEISMOLOGIST has also done some impressive things in the a.m. and has the pedigree to be a very nice one. The #5 JOEY'S SMOKIN GUN cost $50,000 at the sale last year and is from the first crop of Joey Franco who was one of best sprinters in California a few years back; he hails from a top barn and has a tidy work tab so he must be respected as well.
Race #2
1st - #2 Lion Bill | 2nd - #3 King's Causeway | 3rd - #8 Laurel's Gold
COMMENTARY : The #2 LION BILL had no shot in his first start this year getting fanned five wide early and getting no position at all with $20,000 types; he has a better draw for his speedy style and faces a lot easier competition so I'm looking for a good result from him today. The #3 KING'S CAUSEWAY is a newcomer to Hastings that appears to want a little more ground but with the threat of a solid pace being set up front he could come running on late; he's been running with much better in California. The #8 LAUREL'S GOLD is a tough one to read but if he's half right then he'll be dangerous at this level.
Race #3
1st - #1 Dancing Allstar | 2nd - #2 Rosada | 3rd - #3 Infinite Wealth
COMMENTARY : The #1 DANCING ALLSTAR has started right where she left off last fall winning in convincing fashion in the Mt. Royal Stakes in Calgary; there isn't much speed to go with her so expect her to rack up another win at a very tiny price. The #2 ROSADA showed some ability last year by winning twice and one of those victories was in the Lassie Stakes by six lengths; she was injured in the Futurity and given the rest of the year off and with her solid work tab she seems to be going well enough to get the runner-up spot. The #3 INFINITE WEALTH is a nice filly that really hasn't run a bad race in career and considering she won her first race this spring she'll likely be the favourite to run second.
Race #4
1st - #5 Postmaster General | 2nd - #6 Spice Trader | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : There is a ton of early speed in this dash and I'll gamble that the #5 POSTMASTER GENERAL can rate early on and make a big move late in the race; he's worked smartly for his '08 debut. The #6 SPICE TRADER accomplished quite a bit as a two year old last year and with a little more luck this guy could've won over $50,000 instead of the $23,000 he ended up taking home. His post could cause him some problems in this race but if he can work out a decent trip he'll be very tough to outrun because the talent is there to beat this group. The #1 W W TURBO and the #1a WANNABE A STAR appear to be a strong Bronco J owned entry although they have similar running styles; either one is eligible to win so it's never a bad thing to take two for the price of one in a competitive event.
Race #5
1st - #8 Rainbow Dash | 2nd - #3 Clydeja | 3rd - #4 Cagey Curt
COMMENTARY : The #8 RAINBOW DASH broke awkwardly and didn't get near the lead and really wasn't a factor in his comeback race; he has a couple of good works since that day and gets a much easier assignment this afternoon so I like him to take this field wire-to-wire. The #3 CLYDEJA hasn't really found a tough spot to debut which is always a plus and considering he's lured leading rider into the saddle he could win at first asking. The #4 CAGEY CURT didn't get the greatest trip in his first start so with him finishing fourth in a quick heat his effort is far better than it appears at first glance; he has a better post for his style so he should be a major threat.
Race #6
1st - #5 Masterpeach | 2nd - #1 Fisherman's Friend | 3rd - #10 Captain T W Bly
COMMENTARY : The #5 MASTERPEACH had an excellent final prep for his '08 debut and with no real speed in this lineup I think he has a great shot of stealing this race on the head end. The #1 FISHERMAN'S FRIEND is coming back quickly on just six days rest but since I liked him to hit the board last week from the ten hole I have to play him back for the rail in this easier $5,000 spot. The #10 CAPTAIN T W BLY is taking a big tumble in price but he really isn't in at his best distance which is a concern for me even at this low level; he obviously could win but with him likely to be a short price he's one I'd be playing against.
Race #7
1st - #2 T. J. Hennessy | 2nd - #7 Reckless Wind | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #2 T.J. HENNESSY is taking a big drop from the $25,000 ranks after a troubled fourth place run down to this $15,000 tag; he looks like the best on paper and with him likely to get the lead from the rail he'll be tough to catch at this price. The #7 RECKLESS WIND has a shot to win in his Hastings debut for trainer Brent Bremner after being claimed for $16,000 at Golden Gate; he seems to like the turf and going farther but any horse that can win 6 of 12 starts in a year down in California gets my attention so if he takes to the smaller track he looks like the main danger to the #2 T.J. HENNESSY. The #1 ABOVE THE CLOUDS looks to be the stronger half of the Harold Barroby duo; he was very game in winning at this same tag two weeks ago but he loses his pilot to 'Hennessy' signaling that this is a tougher race than the one he captured on May 3rd.
Race #8
1st - #5 Montello | 2nd - #9 Just a Country Boy | 3rd - #1 Good Bad N Ugly
COMMENTARY : The #5 MONTELLO ran into a couple of monsters at this same level last time finishing in 1:10.80 which is incredibly fast for these guys; this dash looks to have come up far easier so a repeat performance gets him the money in this spot. The #9 JUST A COUNTRY BOY is eligible to win today if he can get a decent pace set in front of him; the last time he was down at this tag he crushed the field so with him dropping down in class today he should get a lot of respect. The #1 GOOD BAD N UGLY has been off for over a year but looks to have been training well for his comeback race; his name kind of sums up his last three races doesn't it !! TOUGH CALL !!
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR DAY AT HASTINGS AS WELL AS THE PREAKNESS !!!!!