Mike's Race Analysis May 11, 2008
Race #1
1st - #1 Kokopelli Wind | 2nd - #5 Include The Grand | 3rd - #4 Dramatic Charmer
COMMENTARY: The #1 KOKOPELLI WIND has drawn a nice spot for her return to Hastings after a successful trip to Calgary where she won a non-two allowance event. She tailed off a bit last fall but seems to be going much better right now and I'll follow her back today. The #5 INCLUDE THE GRAND wasn't disgraced in a tough open $15,000 claiming race and even though she's up in price (this is a restricted non-three lifetime for $20,000) this is a far easier task this afternoon and it appears she could get things easy on the front end; beware. The #4 DRAMATIC CHARMER is one of the better fillies in the race but this dash may not set up all that well for her off-the-pace style; she'll need some luck to win it.
Race #2
1st - #2 The Saratoga Four | 2nd - #4 Ashesinthewind | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #2 THE SARATOGA FOUR looks to have prepped smartly for his debut and considering what he cost at the yearling sale in 2006 ($7,000) it's not surprising to see him in at this tag; good connections and they seem to have found a pretty soft spot to debut this gelding. The #4 ASHESINTHEWIND seemed to be on his way to victory two weeks back when he took a length and half lead into the stretch but raced a little erratically through the lane which cost him as he was caught late and had to settle for second; he has good speed and if he stays focused all the way this time he'll be very tough to catch. The #1 ROARING WIND chased the pace in his last and finished up reasonably well and if he improves slightly he could be right there for win and he'll have some company today with the #1a MOUNTAIN COUNTY taking a big tumble in class to this $15,000 level.
Race #3
1st - #4 Selina's Mask | 2nd - #5 You'rejustlikeme | 3rd - #1 Sheisrough
COMMENTARY : The #4 SELINA'S MASK closed out the '07 season at Woodbine with a couple of sprint victories in conditional races and with this race appeared to be loaded with speed I really like her chances of settling behind a hotly contested pace and popping out late in the stretch to win. The #5 YOU'REJUSTLIKEME is the obvious choice off of her game win two weeks ago in a good time at this same price; she'll probably win but I'll gamble that she gets caught up in traffic on a fast pace which may make her vulnerable in the stretch at this longer six and half furlong trip. The #1 SHEISROUGH was overmatched first time out and is in a better spot this afternoon; she has speed and the rail which is a plus but is unlikely to get things comfortable on the head end which she would need for a win over these mares.
Race #4
1st - #2 Kickin Back | 2nd - #5 Road Risk | 3rd - #6 Numbers For Dinner
COMMENTARY : The #2 KICKIN BACK has been banging heads with some tough maidens on the difficult California circuit and should appreciate this easier assignment this afternoon; he has blazing speed and should make the front without being urged which should lead to a wire-to-wire victory for him. The #5 ROAD RISK looks have worked very well for his '08 debut for a barn that has sent out two winners from just two starters; his lack of experience may cost him against the #2 KICKIN BACK but I think he's good enough to beat the rest of them. The #6 NUMBERS FOR DINNER has been away from the races since September '06 and with older maiden races likely not filling in Seattle he's been sent up to John Snow earlier this week; the connections obviously like him or he would've started in a cheaper maiden race at Emerald but with him starting for $25,000 it tells me that he has been doing quite well spring and he could be a major threat today.
Race #5
1st - #9 Quagmire | 2nd - #3 Wings Of An Eagle | 3rd - #10 Fisherman's Friend
COMMENTARY : I'll gamble that the #9 QUAGMIRE can turn the tables on the #3 WINGS OF AN EAGLE this afternoon and I'll take him to win it. The #9 QUAGMIRE got hung out three wide chasing the pace which led to him getting a little tired in the late stages but with this race looking light for early speed I think he get the lead easily and should enough left in the tank to hold off any late challenges. The #3 WINGS OF AN EAGLE had every shot to win last time as the pace was a contested one and he had a perfect trip behind them but wound up second which disappointed me a bit which is why I'm trying to beat him today. The #10 FISHERMAN'S FRIEND will go back in blinkers after an unsuccessful run at the $8,000 tag; he's down in class and will need some luck from an outside draw but he gets a break he's every bit as good as the top two.
Race #6
1st - #3 Lecturing Lynn | 2nd - #6 Nite Time News | 3rd - #5 Parklane
COMMENTARY : The # LECTURING LYNN is a first time starter that looks pretty 'live' in this spot; she's trained well for a good outfit and should give a good account of herself today. The #6 NITE TIME NEWS was stakes-placed last year and actually ran quite well in all three of her starts; she has an experience edge on most of her key rivals and definitely deserves a lot of respect in this spot. The #5 PARKLANE has been well prepped for her debut and her final work was an excellent drill going six and a half furlongs which should set her up for a good effort.
Race #7
1st - #9 Kwik'e Mark | 2nd - #7 Buckaroo Lou | 3rd - #1 Silver Barrage
COMMENTARY : The #9 KWIK'E MARK closed out last year with four consecutive runner-up efforts at this same level; he started off in April running in high end claiming races before dropping down late in the season. His first start will be in a much easier spot and I look for him to run very well despite having a tricky post. The #7 BUCKAROO LOU had to chase a very quick pace in his return race and he got a little wobbly in the stretch but the pace scenario should be kinder to him today which will make him a major threat in this dash. The #1 SILVER BARRAGE has speed and a perfect post for his style so if he avoids a pace duel then he has big shot to win as well; any of his last three races in 2007 would make him a winner today.
Race #8
1st - #2 Complicit Swiss | 2nd - #1 Entry | 3rd - #3 Spences Bridge
COMMENTARY : The #2 COMPLICIT SWISS has found a field that doesn't have a lot of early speed in it so with him having the rail he should prove very tough to catch at this level. The #1 ZIPPY ZAK just finished beating up on $5,000 claimers for the fifth consecutive (had a loss going long for $8,000 in between) time; things are obviously tougher today but one still must respect him along with his entry-mate #1a IRISH OPINION. The #3 SPENCES BRIDGE had a nice final work (1:00.60) in preparation for this afternoon's race; a lack of early speed will hurt his chances of winning but I still think he can rally and get into the top three or four.
Race #9
1st - #4 Soldiers Return | 2nd - #6 Alferrari | 3rd - #1 If I'm Spared
COMMENTARY : The #4 SOLDIERS RETURN was very impressive in his comeback race winning in an excellent time with something in reserve; he should get an ideal trip sitting just off of the speedsters #1 IF I'M SPARED and the #3 VISCOUNT VICTOR G so even though he's up in class a repeat of last effort should win him the money again. The #6 ALFERRARI is an ultra-consistent dude that always comes to play when its game time; he' been training well in the a.m. and should be a threat in the stretch. The #1 IF I'M SPARED has back-to-back wins in Calgary with slightly pricier but this race has come up pretty tough for the level and he'll need to be at his best to win.
Race #10
1st - #3 Lady Vitesse | 2nd - #5 Shayna Sue | 3rd - #2 Angel Ride
COMMENTARY : The #3 LADY VITESSE has three straight third place finishes with $8,000 maidens in Northern Cal and with this race coming up considerably easier than any of her previous starts this year she should win for fun at a short price. The #5 SHAYNA SUE only ran once last season pretty much trailing throughout, she obviously has some physical issues that keep her from participating on a consistent basis but with the balance of the field looking beat-able I've put her in the second spot. The #2 ANGEL RIDE always seems to be running on well late in her races which gets her into the TRIACTOR and the SUPERFECTA often and I think that is likely to happen again today.
HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY AND GOOD LUCK TO ALL !!