Mike's Race Analysis June 15, 2008
Race #1
1st - #6 Blue Sky Holiday | 2nd - #3 Elegant Avie | 3rd - #1 Tribal Belle
COMMENTARY : The #6 BLUE SKY HOLIDAY had her four race winning streak snapped in her latest at the $75,000 level; she really didn't get in the running at all that day but she's coming back in a quicker time frame and gets a much easier assignment and with no real speed filly in the lineup I think she can take them all the way on the head end. The #3 ELEGANT AVIE was bounced around early in her last which is why she wasn't in a good spot early and proceeded to lose interest quickly thereafter; if she gets a cleaner start she's likely to be in contention and from there I'm sure will give a far better account of herself. The #1 TRIBAL BELLE was in a lot of trouble last time but still managed to shake loose late for the win; she showed me that she was much better than the $8,000 fillies she was running with that day and the connections agree as they're giving quite a class bump this afternoon.Race #2
1st - #1 Warsy | 2nd - #7 Brother Jake | 3rd - #6 Affiniti One
COMMENTARY : The #1 WARSY chased a very fast pace in his last and was only beaten by five lengths against a tougher group of $25,000 maidens; he’s probably going to get the lead to himself today and won’t need to expand anywhere near as much energy early so I like his chances of staying on for the win. The #7 BROTHER JAKE ran well in his second start and just needs to get a little more interested early to make things easier on him. The #6 AFFINITI ONE hooked into some toughies last year and managed a couple of runner-up efforts; he’ll appreciate the easier opponents today but is another that may get hurt by the likelihood of a slow early pace.
Race #3
1st - #1 Trippi Bree | 2nd - #5 Singing Along | 3rd - #2 Carolyn's Monarch
COMMENTARY : The #1 TRIPPI BREE set a demanding pace last time and faded in the stretch to finish third; she’s come back with a couple of eye-catching drills and if she can rate a bit kinder today she should beat this group. The #5 SINGING ALONG is the logical one to play if you’re looking to beat my top pick as she did defeat her the last time they met; she ran last weekend with tougher and didn’t get a decent pace at all but it appears she’ll get a better shot at winning in this spot. The #2 CAROLYN’S MONARCH crushed a group of $25,000 maidens in her last and if she can stay close to the #1 TRIPPI BREE early without using up too much horse then she may be able to run her down late.
Race #4
1st - #4 Afleet Allstar | 2nd - #2 Mr. Gobetween | 3rd - #7 Super Steve
COMMENTARY : The #4 AFLEET ALLSTAR had a lot of things go wrong (too many to list) in his last but he showed a ton of ability regrouping and getting the second spot; if he can somehow break with the field he shouldn't get beat. The #2 MR. GOBETWEEN improved in his second start and with him being freshened up a bit and sporting a sharp work (59.80) he should be ready for his best performance to date. The #7 SUPER STEVE was bumped around early and lost position and I thought he did well to get fourth money at the end; he's another that is eligible to improve and should be watched closely.
Race #5
1st - #4 My Friend Geoff | 2nd - #7 Postmaster General | 3rd - #2 Vic's Pick
COMMENTARY : The #4 MY FRIEND GEOFF was hung out four deep around the first turn chasing a fast pace then shifted to the rail for the balance of the race and ended up a game third beaten a little more than two lengths. The pace scenario looks like it'll be more favourable for him so I'll side with him in this competitive spot. The #7 POSTMASTER GENERAL rallied from far back to get second at this same level and if the early pace is a contested one again then he'll be a threat in the stretch. The #2 VIC'S PICK ran into a monster (Peaceful Turzia came back to win a stakes race) in his first start this year and had to settle for the runner-up spot; he's the inside speed but is facing older horses so it's a tough call on what to do with him in this dash.Race #6
1st - #2 Kwik'e Mark | 2nd - #3 Lion Bill | 3rd - #1 J D's Carson Copy
COMMENTARY : The #2 KWIK'E MARK ran much better last time and now that he has a couple of sprints in him he appears to be ready for this longer test; his best races last year were at this distance so with leading rider jumping on board today looks like a good time to play him. The #3 LION BILL is trying this trip for the first time and I'll give him a shot mainly because he has run with better company and could also get an easy lead. The #1 J D'S CARSON COPY ran reasonably well in his last but this race has come up tougher than his last did so he'll need to be better if he's to win.
Race #7
1st - #5 Undersecretary | 2nd - #6 Sideline | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #5 UNDERSECRETARY ran a better-than-looked race last time considering he was trying to sneak through on the rail on the final bend but sucked himself out of there as it got a little tight losing three or four lengths which ended up being the margin of his defeat. There should be a solid pace in this dash and I'm sure he'll heading to the outside when he commences his run; VALUE PLAY !! The #6 SIDELINE battled on a fast pace for the second consecutive time this year and still managed to be right there at the end; those hard races are likely taking its toll on him and with other speed in the lineup he may have to settle for another minor cheque. The #1 ZIPPY ZAK and the #1a M L's INDIAN are both very 'live' at this level but both drew awkward posts for their styles which is only reason I didn't take them for the EXACTOR but if either could be fortunate enough to get into a good spot early then my top two could be in trouble.
Race #8
1st - #4 Up Sweep | 2nd - #1 Chianti Dancer | 3rd - #3 Good Thinking
COMMENTARY : The #4 UP SWEEP was a game winner first time out this spring at the $25,000 tag then tried the $50,000 types and got a bad post and was really never in the running; she has a better draw and more importantly easier competition so I expect her to rebound with a good effort today. The #1 CHIANTI DANCER was a no-threat third at this price with a perfect trip last time so the connections opt to put the blinkers on her in hopes of getting close to her form of last summer. The #3 GOOD THINKING defeated a similar group two weeks back with a nice trip and if she could get another good one today obviously has a great shot of repeating.
Race #9
1st - #8 Yoorock Gal | 2nd - #1 Entry | 3rd - #3 Alpine Garden
COMMENTARY : With the highweight HOLY NOVA opting out of today's race it has left the door wide open for someone else to get a stakes victory and my pick will the one that got closest to her last time the #8 YOOROCK GAL. She's unproven at this longer trip but if she clears early and gets to the rail then she'll likely relax kinder for Hoverson which will allow her to stay the trip; there really isn't any rival that is going any better than her so she deserves a shot. The #1 SERAFINA LADY and the #1a LADY RAJ could possibly save the day for the barn (both are from the same outfit as HOLY NOVA) I thought the #1a LADY RAJ was traveling very well at the end of the $50,000 Senate Appointee despite trying to close against a slow pace so she's 'live' on the stretch out. The #3 ALPINE GARDEN is obviously not much of a sprinter so she's now had her tune-ups and we'll see if she can showcase her talents like she did last year at this mile and a sixteenth trip.Race #10
1st - #6 Kokeeno | 2nd - #2 How Iz It Sarah | 3rd - #3 Dancer's Halo
COMMENTARY : The #6 KOKEENO just missed making it two in a row last time at this tag and should only need a repeat performance to get the money with group. The #2 HOW IZ IT SARAH had an easy win three weeks ago with slightly softer and has an inside post and is likely to get the lead to herself which will make her dangerous even at this level. The #3 DANCER'S HALO has turned in three sparkling efforts so far this year and if the top two aren't at their best then this gal will nail them all in the stretch.
Race #11
1st - #9 First Kiss | 2nd - #1 Bamboo Diva | 3rd - #4 Quickens
COMMENTARY : The #9 FIRST KISS was well backed in her debut in Northern Cal earlier this year and ended up getting a small cheque for her efforts; something had to happen in that race because she was given a lot of time off so with her resurfacing in this very soft spot if she doesn't do anything drastically wrong then she should get the victory. The #1 BAMBOO DIVA gave an excellent account of herself first time this season and if she repeats that effort she'll be the main danger to my top pick. The #4 QUICKENS didn't do a whole lot right in her debut but with a sharp work and easier company I'll give her another chance this afternoon.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND HAVE A GREAT DAY !!!