Mike's Race Analysis July 26, 2008
Race #1
1st - #1 Seashell | 2nd - #5 Rayito De Luna | 3rd - #4 Vyliena
COMMENTARY : The #1 SEASHELL ran better than it appeared in her last race taking on the toughest fillies on the grounds; she’s in a much easier spot today and with the rail I expect her to be a strong wire-to-wire threat. The #5 RAYITO DE LUNA is also exiting the same filly stake that my top pick did, she finished well that day and is probably the best filly in this dash but will need to be quicker from the gate if she’s to win even at this reduced level. The #4 VYLIENA ran a decent race with the boys in her debut and with a race under her belt and getting in with fillies today she deserves a look as well.
Race #2
1st - #1 Our Gin Girl | 2nd - #4 Iamontoyou | 3rd - #2 Annemariekathleen
COMMENTARY : The #1 OUR GIN GIRL has speed and a good draw and only needs to repeat either of her first two races to beat this group. The #4 IAMONTOYOU has a couple of third place finishes so far this year in her three starts to date; she’ll probably fall victim to a slow pace today but I still like her to complete the EXACTOR. The #2 ANNEMARIEKATHLEEN is dropping down in class and has been freshened up so we should see some improvement from her.
Race #3
1st - #4 Gotta Find Bubba | 2nd - #6 A Cut Above | 3rd - #1 Senor Rojo
COMMENTARY : The #4 GOTTA FIND BUBBA was a close third in a quick heat with $25,000 maidens and even though he’s up in class he looks like a standout with this group. The #6 A CUT ABOVE chased a quick pace in his debut and stayed on pretty well; he might be able to shake loose early and if he does he’ll be tough to catch. The #1 SENOR ROJO cost $32,000 as a yearling out of the Keeneland sale; he’s been training very well and should be respected.
Race #4
1st - #7 Summer Song | 2nd - #4 Came Up Roses | 3rd - #5 Answerwithvictory
COMMENTARY : The #7 SUMMER SONG is a newcomer to Hastings that has found a pretty soft maiden allowance heat; she’s been working well and should be tough to beat in her first start for her new connections. The #4 CAME UP ROSES raced a little greenly in her debut and only lost second by three lengths; she’s likely to improve off of that race and I’ll give her another chance. The #5 ANSWERTHEVICTORY has been a lot better since the blinkers came off two starts back and her speed makes her a strong threat again today.
Race #5
1st - #6 Fine Elly Mine | 2nd - #3 Holy Mack | 3rd - #4 Trinidad Bay
COMMENTARY : The #5 FINE ELLY MINE lacks experience at this longer trip but the barn does well with their runners on the stretch-out; he’s likely to control the early tempo so I’ll give her a shot today. The #3 HOLY MACK pulled up in his debut then came back two days later to finish a distant second and if he got enough conditioning out of his latest race then he has a chance in this soft spot as well. The #4 TRINIDAD BAY has some success at this trip last year and even though it appears that he’s tailing off a bit I still like him to finish in the top three.
Race #6
1st - #3 Badgetts Star | 2nd - #4 Serafina Lady | 3rd - #2 Afleet B’s
COMMENTARY : The #3 BADGETTS STAR is a solid and consistent mare that always gives a good performance and while she’s up in price today she’s not really facing a stellar crew so with her likely getting the early lead I think she’ll lead throughout. The #4 SERAFINA LADY must stay close to my top pick early in the race if she’s to win today; logical EXACTOR play. The #2 AFLEET B’S easily bested a group of $15,000 mares going long and with her cutting back in distance it’s unlikely that she’ll win but highly probable that she’ll be in the TRIACTOR.
Race #7
1st - #3 Kachina Dream | 2nd - #8 Shirleyanne | 3rd - #5 Alittlebitextra
COMMENTARY : The #3 KACHINA DREAM is facing her easiest test of the season and with leading rider in the tack that was enough to sell me on her in this spot. The #8 SHIRLEYANNE has been in good form this year and will break through with a win very soon and it could be today if my top pick doesn’t take to her new surroundings. The #5 ALITTLEBITEXTRA was a no-threat sixth sprinting in her first start of the year but this is her best distance so she’ll be more of a factor this time.
Race #8
1st - #1 Forest Prince | 2nd - #3 Right Honorable | 3rd - #2 Harlem
COMMENTARY : The #1 FOREST PRINCE was rubbing shoulders with some pretty nice three year olds back east and with this race primarily made up of horses that are not in top form right now he looks like a standout. The #3 RIGHT HONORABLE has been freshened up after a couple of disappointing tries earlier this year and if he can get back to his form of late last year he should be in the EXACTOR. The #2 HARLEM is back in town after a sixth place run in the $125,000 Alberta Derby; he’ll shorten up to a sprint and also face easier company.
Race #9
1st - #6 Tribal Secret | 2nd - #3 Annie Laurie | 3rd - #5 Mykentuckyprincess
COMMENTARY : The #6 TRIBAL SECRET ran well from an outside post to finish third in her last race and a repeat of that effort should get her all the money this time. The #3 ANNIE LAURIE was caught up in traffic in her race last weekend and was traveling well at the end losing by only a length and a half; as long as the quick turnaround doesn’t bother her she should be a big factor in this dash. The #5 MYKENTUCKYPRINCESS looks to be the controlling speed which makes her one to respect.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A GREAT DAY AT THE RACES !!!