Mike's Race Analysis July 20, 2008
Race #1
1st - #1 E Commerce | 2nd - #6 Rich Debut |
3rd - #4 That Cahill Knight
COMMENTARY : The #1 E COMMERCE finished a good second at this same level last time and with this race really coming light she looks rock solid although she won’t be much a price with Gutierrez jumping on board. The #6 RICH DEBUT was just in behind my top pick the last time they met and she’ll get her blinkers put back on today so she’s definitely the main threat to the favourite. The #4 THAT CAHILL KNIGHT tried to chase the pace down on the inside and she tired badly through the final quarter-mile but she’s better than that race indicates; she has speed and could get things comfortable on the head end; price play!!
Race #2
1st - #6 Golden Ratio | 2nd - #3 Drafting For Speed | 3rd - #4 Bright Spring
COMMENTARY : The #6 GOLDEN RATIO was a closing third behind her stable mate P S Good N Ready (recently ran third in the $50,000 Timber Music Stakes) in her debut two months ago; she seems to have worked well for her first two-turn try and looks like the one to beat. The #3 DRAFTING FOR SPEED also had an encouraging debut and will get Lasix for the first time this afternoon; she has speed and a good inside draw making her a solid EXACTOR horse. The #4 BRIGHT SPRING had some troubles in her first start and was probably going to win that day then she was given a very tough assignment coming back in 11 days against stakes fillies; better spot today.
Race #3
1st - #5 Against The Sky | 2nd - #1 Lord Vic | 3rd - #2 Lil Victor G
COMMENTARY : The #5 AGAINST THE SKY is a mare taking on the boys but this really isn’t a very tough race and considering she’s still unbeaten in four tries going long I like her chances a lot today. The #1 LORD VIC has been protected this year primarily running in stakes races and he now returns to the marathon series; this trip might be a bit short for him to be a heavy favorite. The #2 LIL VICTOR G showed some ability in some longer races in Northern Cal and with leading rider up I’ll put him in the top three.
Race #4
1st - #5 Hunter’s Lad |
2nd - #2 Sultan Of Skat |
3rd - #7 Tax Notis
COMMENTARY : The #5 HUNTER’S LAD was a close fourth against a pretty good group of $5,000 maidens and with this race coming up far easier I like his chances; blinkers go back on today. The #2 SULTAN OF SKAT has back-to-back third place runs and is one that’ll win a race very soon; he’s nicely drawn for his tracking style and looks like the main danger to my top pick. The #7 TAX NOTIS had to be used hard to get the lead in his last and it cost him as he tired to be a distant fourth; if he can clear the speedy #6 WRITE A LETTER early then he has a shot.
Race #5
1st - #3 Tsunami Breeze |
2nd - #9 Yankee George |
3rd - #5 Laurel’s Gold
COMMENTARY : The # TSUNAMI BREEZE raced like a real pro in his debut coming from off the pace and circling the field for an easy win; there appears to be fair amount of speed in this dash so if he moves forward off of his first start (like many horses do) I like him to repeat. The #9 YANKEE GEORGE cruised to a comfortable victory when down at the bottom maiden level and if he can work out another good trip from his outside post he has a good shot to repeat as well. The #5 LAUREL’S GOLD went a little too fast (21.80 and 45.40) on the front end in his latest and was reeled in late; he gets a good break in the weights but is racing back in 8 days.
Race #6
1st - #7 Cruzlite | 2nd - #6 Brother Jake | 3rd - #5 Harvard Grad
COMMENTARY : The #76 CRUZLITE was caught up on a contested pace last time out and tired to late to finish third; I think he can clear and get to the rail which would give him a big edge in this dash. The #6 BROTHER JAKE is the logical play off of his runner-up effort at this level a couple weeks back but with him being a ‘closer’ he might be vulnerable this after noon in this race that doesn’t feature a lot early speed. The #5 HARVARD GRAD was reclaimed by his original connections (which is usually a good sign) after a no-threat third place effort although he was pinned down on the inside where he never seemed happy; better post for him and he sports a very good work – beware !!
Race #7
1st - #2 Yoorock Gal |
2nd - #4 Kissntheboysgoodby |
3rd - #3 Big Bertha
COMMENTARY : The #2 YOOROCK GAL looks like a solid wire-to-wire threat in this allowance heat and I’m sure she’ll be delighted to see that neither Holy Nova or Lady Raj are in the lineup. The #4 KISSNTHEBOYSGOODBY is also getting an easier assignment today as she will run for a price and return to a sprint; she’s been a solid sprinter in Seattle over the past couple of years and was second in her only try here at Hastings so she deserves respect in this one. The #3 BIG BERTHA is another filly that is exiting a stakes race in Edmonton and was keeping company with some nice fillies in Southern California; if she handles our track she has a shot with a good trip.
Race #8
1st - #7 Ookashada | 2nd - #5 Shacane | 3rd - #2 Seminole Brave
COMMENTARY : The #7 OOKASHADA turned in a good effort sprinting in his last but I think he’s a better horse going long and with this race looking to set up very nicely for him I think he’s going to run a big one today. The #5 SHACANE is down for $50,000 looking for his first win since his huge upset at 39-1 in the B.C. Cup Classic last August; there should be a decent pace being set up front so this a good opportunity for him to back in the winner’s circle. The #2 SEMINOLE BRAVE is a rapidly improving four year old that is trying a new distance today; I can certainly see him winning today but this is a big class change from his last race and with him trying a new distance it might be wise not to get too high on him just yet.
Race #9
1st - #3 In Vogue | 2nd - #5 Rin Chan | 3rd - #6 Latina Look
COMMENTARY : The #3 IN VOGUE is taking a big class drop and with her getting a better post she looks very dangerous in this spot; strong wire-to-wire chance. The #5 RIN CHAN has a string of nice works and hails from a top barn so she deserves a look. The #6 LATINA LOOK just missed two weeks back finishing second in a race that wasn’t run very quickly; this race has come up tougher so she’ll need to be better if she’s to win this afternoon.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND ENJOY YOUR DAY AT THE RACES !!!
