Mike's Race Analysis July 19, 2008
Race #1
1st - #4 Mr. Nutcracker | 2nd - #5 Mighty All Star | 3rd - #7 Bartzella
COMMENTARY : The #4 MR. NUTCRACKER improved a lot last time out as he rallied to be second in a very quick heat; there looks to be plenty of early speed in this dash which will aid his off-the-pace style. The #5 MIGHTY ALL STAR has struggled with high priced maidens but at this lowly tag his speed should make him a top threat. The #7 BARTZELLA made a positive impression in his latest finishing a close third although the final time was not very quick; he will need to be a bit better to win today but he’s lightly raced and could keep on improving.
Race #2
1st - #3 Good Bad N Ugly | 2nd - #5 Resident Authority | 3rd - #2 Colondelivery
COMMENTARY : The #3 GOOD BAD N UGLY turned in a solid effort with slightly better and with this race coming up a little light for speed he looks like a strong wire-to-wire threat. The #5 RESIDENT AUTHORITY is probably the best horse in the race but will likely give up early position to my top pick which cost him in this heat. The #2 COLONDELIVERY had a rough trip in his only distance try this year and with two sharp works on form he could surprise some people today; he’s beaten this kind in the past and could be the value play.Race #3
1st - #4 Californiatruegrit | 2nd - #6 Area Code | 3rd - #7 Swazi
COMMENTARY : I really liked the #4 CALIFORNIATRUEGRIT in an $8,000 claimer on Friday (which he was scratched out of) so it stands to reason that my confidence is even stronger with him opting for this $5,000 dash; he has speed and is facing a pretty soft crew so he’ll be tough to beat. The #6 AREA CODE ran much better last time when refitted in blinkers and if my top pick fails he’s the next logical play. The #7 SWAZI is dangerous at this level when he makes the front end and with him being freshened up he’ll likely be very sharp so the top two better not let him get too far away early or he could be tough to catch.Race #4
1st - #4 Billy Ghost | 2nd - #5 Quiet Edge | 3rd - #6 Canuck Buck
COMMENTARY : The #4 BILLY GHOST was traveling well at the end of his last race and with this dash looking like it will set up far better for his off-the-pace style I’ll take him on top today. The #5 QUIET EDGE has a couple of third place runs this season with pricier maidens; he makes his first start for a new barn at a reduced tag and if he can avoid a pace duel he’ll be right in the top three. The #6 CANUCK BUCK is another that is facing easier competition and his form this year hasn’t been all that bad so perhaps this class relief is what he needs to get a win.Race #5
1st - #7 Kirschgarten | 2nd - #1 Instinctive | 3rd - #8 Fabulous Miss Otis
COMMENTARY : The #7 KIRSCHGARTEN looked good in her return race and actually cruised by the leaders under a confident Valdez ride; she’s in with a more accomplished field today but judging the ease of her victory she’ll be ready for this tougher test. The #1 INSTINCTIVE makes her Hastings debut after being a recent private purchase and she seems to have taken to our track quite nicely working five-eighths in 59.60; she has strong connections and looks ‘live’ but probably won’t possess any value. The #8 FABULOUS MISS OTIS has been a much better filly since going on the Lasix program and if she can shake loose early she has a shot of wiring these gals.
Race #6
1st - #4 Tongue And Groove | 2nd - #5 Texas Dolly | 3rd - #1 Sweet Sweet Taylor
COMMENTARY : The #4 TONGUE AND GROOVE was cooked on a fast pace in his last race which was with no-tag maidens but that kind of effort could win a race of this caliber; he should get things easier on the head end in this one so I like his chances against this group. The #5 TEXAS DOLLY is a newcomer from Southern Cal that has been training here for a while; he’s in with easier fillies but will still have to prove she can make the switch from a synthetic surface to this regular dirt track. The #1 SWEET SWEET TAYLOR is another new face that comes to the west coast via Southern Florida she looked to have worked well over this track last week; the connections are strong so she must be respected in her Hastings debut.
Race #7
1st - #4 Kwik’e Mark | 2nd - #3 Superior Straits | 3rd - #8 Lion Bill C
COMMENTARY :The #4 KWIK’E MARK was a close third in his last finishing just ahead a few of his rivals today; I gave him the edge just because of his ability to be in a good spot early which could be the difference in this very competitive heat. The #3 SUPERIOR STRAITS had a tough post and a slow pace being set in front of him yet he still managed get into a photo for third with the #4 KWIK’E MARK; he’s every bit as good as my top pick but he’ll need some luck with the trip to win it because there doesn’t look like there’ll be much of a pace again today. The #8 LION BILL easily dusted off a field of non-two $8,000 distance runners and face slightly tougher today but he’s proven that he can run with these in the past; another contender.
Race #8
1st - #2 The Visualiser | 2nd - #6 Sly Striker | 3rd - #5 Diligent Prospect
COMMENTARY : The #2 THE VISUALISER is facing a much easier assignment (half the field are three year olds) this afternoon and I think he’ll take this group wire-to-wire if he can repeat either one of his two races this spring. The #6 SLY STRIKER has been a sharp one this year winning his first start then running second to the only four time winner at the meet Soldiers Return; he should be in a favourable spot early so he’ll have a shot to run down my top pick if he’s good enough. The # 5 DILIGENT PROSPECT is another solid older horse that knows how to win races and only needs to be a bit better than he was last month to be a big factor.
Race #9
1st - #5 Talented Tana | 2nd - #1 Unspoken Thoughts | 3rd - #2 Bright Question
COMMENTARY : The #5 TALENTED TANA has run well in both of her starts and is on the improve so I like her to outrun the #1 UNSPOKEN THOUGHTS in the stretch. The latter has speed and the rail and if can avoid a pace duel she might hang on to beat my top pick. The #2 BRIGHT QUESTION is down in price after being well back in a $15,000 maiden event; she wasn’t disgraced by any means in that race so she deserves a long look with these fillies.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND HAVE A GREAT DAY AT THE RACES !!!