Mike's Race Analysis July 18, 2008
Race #1
1st - #1 Entry | 2nd - #5 M L's Indian | 3rd - #2 Paulswithdavid
COMMENTARY : The #1 ENTRY both look good in this spot but I’m leaning towards the #1a CALIFORNIATRUEGRIT who made a successful return to the races two weeks ago. He has good speed and if he can get the trip sitting just on the outside of the #2 PAULSWITHDAVID then I really like his chances. The #1 COMMODORE CRAIG is a nice one to have as a saver just in case “Grit’ doesn’t get his trip. The #5 M L’S INDIAN is the logical play after his unlucky loss at this level last time out but he won’t possess any value !! The #2 PAULSWITHDAVID is the inside speed and if he can be left alone for awhile on the head end he could be a contender.
Race #2
1st - #9 Twofourtime | 2nd - #3 Devil's Attire | 3rd - #2 Shel B Quick
COMMENTARY : The #9 TWOFOURTIME is bred to be very fast (related to Freequartersmine) and has an excellent work tab along with an ideal post for this trip. The #3 DEVIL’S ATTIRE has some solid morning drills for his debut and hails from a barn that has had their young stock ready to roll. The same can be said for the filly #2 SHEL B QUICK who is the first foal from a talented mare that had speed; she has a quick half-mile gate drill for today’s race so I like her chances as well.
Race #3
1st - #6 Crooked River | 2nd - #3 Peacebethejourney | 3rd - #7 Launch Our Star
COMMENTARY : The #6 CROOKED RIVER has trained well since coming to Hastings after being claimed in Northern Cal; her form there was strong and with a pace duel looming I think she has a good shot of winning from just off the pace. The #3 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY gets into a much easier spot today and finally gets a decent post so we should see a better result from this mare that won 5 of her 7 starts last season. The #7 LAUNCH OUR STAR is up in class today but actually beat a $15,000 mare in her victory last week so I feel she fits with these gals; the quick turnaround is the main concern for me.
Race #4
1st - #6 Complicit Swiss | 2nd - #4 Patriotic | 3rd - #2 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #6 COMPLICIT SWISS drops into an easier spot today and appears to be the only early speed in the race so he should be tough to catch. The #4 PATRIOTIC looks like the logical one to run down my top pick in the stretch; he’s been sharp in his last two. The #2 ENTRY of the #2 FISHERMAN’S FRIEND and the #2b SAANICHTON are off-the-pace threats that need pace help to win it, both ran better-than looked races last time so I like at least one of them to get into the top three.
Race #5
1st - #6 Kickboard | 2nd - #8 He's Quite A Guy | 3rd - #2 Cielo's Lad
COMMENTARY : The #6 KICKBOARD is taking the big plunge from the $20,000 ranks into this $5,000 claimer; he lacks speed so he’ll be giving up positioning to his rivals but at this level it really might not matter. The #8 HE’S QUITE A GUY ran another good race in his latest and will break through with a win very soon; he’s coming back in seven days but does get a big break in the weights with the impressive young apprentice Natasha Sihota in the irons.
Race #6
1st - #5 Whatwillbewillbe | 2nd - #2 My Friend Geoff | 3rd - #4 Bangalow
COMMENTARY : The #5 WHATWILLBEWILLBE appeared to have a rough trip in his first try with winners at Hollywood Park six weeks ago and finished sixth; he’s been purchased privately since that race and has drawn a pretty good spot today and looks like a strong wire-to-wire candidate. The #2 MY FRIEND GEOFF was very game in defeat in his latest at this same price and if he can get an easier early tempo this afternoon he has a good chance as well. The #4 BANGALOW ran a little greenly in his second start yet still managed to get fourth money when facing these tougher types; he seems like one with a lot of potential and if he continues to learn then he should be better today.
Race #7
1st - #5 Tigerheat | 2nd - #8 Road Risk | 3rd - #2 Iceman
COMMENTARY : The #5 TIGERHEAT was forced to set a quick pace going long last time and held very well at the end, there doesn’t appear to be as much early speed in this one so I like him to go all the way on the head end. The #8 ROAD RISK made an early run on the backstretch when tackling stakes company last time out and flattened out a bit through the final stages. He’s in with allowance runners today so with a better timed move he could be more of a factor. The #2 ICEMAN didn’t get much of a shot last time as he hit the gate leaving the latch injuring Fuentes (he booked off his next couple of mounts) who couldn’t do much riding so I give him another shot; price play !!
Race #8
1st - #3 Kwik | 2nd - #6 Warsy | 3rd - #10 Super Red Rabbit
COMMENTARY : The #3 KWIK was much the best last time as he was squeezed leaving the gate costing him about six lengths then raced four wide throughout and only lost by a length at the end so with him back in with the same company he looks pretty good. The #6 WARSY is a tough dude that has fought hard on the pace in his last few races and has always finished up well. I expect another strong performance from him today. The #10 SUPER RED RABBIT drops out of no-tag maidens into this $25,000 dash and was a strong runner-up in his only try with maiden claimers.
GOOD LUCK AND ENJOY YOUR DAY AT THE RACES !!!