Mike's Race Analysis July 13, 2008
Race #1
1st - #2 Kate’s Coco | 2nd - #5 Nor’west Secret | 3rd - #6 Goldy Fox
COMMENTARY : The #2 KATE’S COCO had an unlucky trip in her latest and still almost won the money; she improved a lot on the stretch out and if she gets a clean trip today I think she’ll win it. The #5 NOR’WEST SECRET is lightly raced and ran much better in her second start and if she can handle this new distance (she’s bred to like it) she will be big factor. The #6 GOLDY FOX was a little too sharp in her first try long this year but with that race under her belt I think she’ll relax better and run more the filly that earned two runner-up cheques at this trip last year.
Race #2
1st - #2 Alarico | 2nd - #5 Cabron | 3rd - #3 Freequartersmine
COMMENTARY : The #2 ALARICO just missed in his first stakes try losing by only a half-length; he’s back in with allowance company and with the threat two speedsters hooking up he should get a perfect trip in behind them which should to win today. The #5 CABRON finished just a head in behind my top pick and if he can avoid a pace duel then he obviously has a big chance as well. The #3 FREEQUARTERSMINE is up in price after being claimed out of an impressive win at the $25,000 tag; he’s the inside speed but it appears that he’ll get some pressure early which is why I’ve left him in the third spot.
Race #3
1st - #1 Afleet B’s | 2nd - #6 Hola Mamacita | 3rd - #3 Katelliena
COMMENTARY : The #1 AFLEET B’S has drawn a pretty nice spot this afternoon facing a soft group of $15,000 mares; she was nailed in deep stretch against tougher company last time at this distance and only needs to repeat that effort to get the job done comfortably in here. The #6 HOLA MAMACITA is the only one with a shot to knock off the ‘fave’ but will need to get back to her Northern Cal form if she’s to make up the eight length difference between the two last time out. The #3 KATELLIENA ran reasonably well in her comeback race and looks to be the best of the rest.Race #4
1st - #5 Mahaty Jo | 2nd - #1 Singing Along | 3rd - #7 Miss Best Bet
COMMENTARY : The #5 MAHATY JO has been a consistent performer this year and should break through with a win at this condition very soon; she should be laying third behind the speed and with that trip I think today’s the day for her. The #1 SINGING ALONG was fanned out wide on the first turn and really never got in the race but with a better post as well as a rider switch perhaps she’ll regain her form of earlier this year. The #7 MISS BEST BET looked good in winning over $11,000 maidens considering it was just her first start of the year; she has a nice draw for her style and we’ll see how the new apprentice Natasha Sihota fares as this looks to be her livest mount of the weekend.Race #5
1st - #3 Chief Billy | 2nd - #8 Rainbow Dash | 3rd - #6 Swinging FoxCOMMENTARY : The #3 CHIEF BILLY chased a fast pace with pricier company finishing in mid-pack last time out which I think will set him up beautifully for this longer trip; strong wire-to-wire candidate on the class drop. The #8 RAINBOW DASH is also facing easier company although he’s had a quite a few chances to get the job done; he’s not really bred to stay this trip but the way he plods along he might just outrun his sprint pedigree. The #6 SWINGING FOX improved a lot at this trip last time as he raced on a quick pace and was very game right down to the line so if the top two don’t take to this distance then he’s the logical one to win.
Race #6
1st - #4 Dancer’ Halo | 2nd - #3 Lady Vitesse | 3rd - #6 Stella Stella
COMMENTARY : The #4 DANCER’S HALO has been solid at this level and with a pace looming ahead of her I like her chances a lot today. The #3 LADY VITESSE has also been in good form of late and is very ’live’ in this spot although she may be a bit better sprinter which can pretty be said for my third choice the #6 STELLA STELLA who will be trying this distance for the first time after sprint win over non-two’s at this same price.Race #7
1st - #1 Rank Six | 2nd - #5 Nor’west Victor | 3rd - #6 Exploding
COMMENTARY : The #1 RANK SIX seemed to enjoy going long last time out as he finished a good third behind a couple of accomplished runners; this race appears to have come up a bit easier so I think his top effort gets him the money. The #5 NOR’WEST VICTOR is facing a lot easier competition and if he can stay out of a pace duel then he has a good shot today. The #6 EXPLODING was a little too close to a hot pace last time which led his poor showing but I think he’s worth another look today.Race #8
1st - #1 El Sinaloense | 2nd - #3 Almost Time | 3rd - #5 Stole Home
COMMENTARY : The #1 EL SINALOENSE has been the most impressive two year old this year and judging by his works he isn’t just a three and a half furlong specialist; he worked in 59 and galloped out in 1:11.60 and if that work didn’t bring up any problems then he should win for fun. The #3 ALMOST TIME has been turning in some nice morning drills and hails from an excellent family. The #5 STOLE HOME is also well connected and even though he just has the one five-eighths he still looks like an EXACTOR play.Race #9
1st - #2 Alert N Wise | 2nd - #4 Buckaroo Lou | 3rd - #1 Puerto Montt
COMMENTARY : The #2 ALERT N WISE went back in blinkers last time and he ran a much better race; he should get a nice trip in behind a pace duel and I’ll gamble that he fires his A-race which will be good enough to beat this group. The #4 BUCKAROO LOU has been sharp of late and returns to a sprint after a couple of good tries going long; he’ll benefit from a hot pace so he deserves respect in this spot as well. The #1 PUERTO MONTT has good speed, drew the rail and he showed a lot of determination in his latest. He might be able to take these the whole way but he’s going to have to earn it as he will get plenty of early pressure from the #7 W W TURBO.
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