Mike's Race Analysis July 12, 2008
Race #1
1st - #4 Selina’s Mask | 2nd - #2 Shirleyanne | 3rd - #5 Mystical Act
COMMENTARY : The #4 SELINA’S MASK was a little too sharp early in her first try at this longer trip and it cost her in the late going as she wound a close second; this race has come up softer and I expect her to be easier to rate this time which should lead an easy win for her. The # 2 SHIRLEYANNE was forced into an early move last time and she hung a bit late as the 2-1 second choice but she still appears to be the only one in the lineup that has a shot to knock off my top pick. The #5 MYSTICAL ACT turned in a better performance last time out which should set her up for a shot to be in the TRIACTOR.Race #2
1st - #2 Artic Star | 2nd - #3 Willie Katchem | 3rd - #4 Money X Change
COMMENTARY : The #2 ARTIC STAR drops back down to the claim price after finishing well back in an allowance race; he was bad in the gate again and needs to be on his best behaviour if he’s to break well and be a factor. The #3 WILLIE KATCHEM gets into a much easier spot today and could get a perfect trip in behind the speed. The #4 MONEY X CHANGE is another that will appreciate the easier competition that is served up this afternoon.Race #3
1st - #1 Seismologist | 2nd - #2 Alero Express | 3rd - #4 Vyliena
COMMENTARY : The #1 SEISMOLOGIST exits a ‘live’ heat and looks like one that’ll appreciate this longer trip; his works are good and he’s drawn the rail which will give him a good shot to go wire-to-wire. The #2 ALERO EXPRESS is from a good barn and has a string of nice works so he’s definitely one to watch in this dash. The #4 VYLIENA has a series of good five-eighths works so she appears to be ready for her debut; she’s from a good family so she deserves a look as well.
Race #4
1st - #5 Came Up Roses | 2nd - #2 Parklane | 3rd - #1 Foxy Like A Cat
COMMENTARY : The #5 CAME UP ROSES has a series of excellent morning trials for her debut and her sire Exchange Rate is on fire of late with numerous stakes and allowance winners back east. This isn’t tough spot for a first timer so I’ll take her to win it. The #2 PARKLANE has run reasonably well of late although she went a little backwards in her progression last time out; she could be the lone speed so I’ll leave her in the top three one more time. The #1 FOXY LIKE A CAT ducked in sharply away from the gate losing the rider in her debut; she will add blinkers this time and deserves another shot.Race #5
1st - #2 The Saratoga Four | 2nd - #4 Trinidad Bay | 3rd - #8 Share an Otis
COMMENTARY : The #2 THE SARATOGA FOUR gets a blinker and company change which should lead to a better result today; I like him to take this field all the way on the head end. The #4 TRINIDAD BAY is the best ‘closer’ in the group but I’m a little worried that the pace scenario won’t help him out this time so I’ve left him in the runner-up spot. The #8 SHARE AN OTIS has a pretty solid work tab for a horse of the caliber so with no real superstar in the lineup he has a shot to win his career debut.Race #6
1st - #1 Der Koenig | 2nd - #3 Magna Force | 3rd - #6 Dylan’s Prospect
COMMENTARY : The #1 DER KOENIG turned in an excellent performance in his comeback race losing by a narrow margin and as long as that effort didn’t take too much out of him he should win the money this time. The #3 MAGNA FORCE is down in class after a disappointing run with conditional $20,000 claimers, his best effort probably wins the race but I’m a little concerned about his last start and that he may be tailing off. The #6 DYLAN’S PROSPECT looked good in wiring a group of $11,000 maidens while setting very quick splits and who knows if he shakes loose early again today he may forget to stop.
Race #7
1st - #3 Stingoftruth | 2nd - #6 Count Your Dreams | 3rd - #5 La Veloz
COMMENTARY : The #3 STINGOFTRUTH has been competitive with far better fillies down south so I think that if she handled the long ship here that she should beat this bunch. The #6 COUNT YOUR DREAMS is another that has been running with tougher conditional claimers and should be happier being back in the friendlier confines of Hastings Racecourse; she has positional speed so I look for her to be in a good spot early which will give her every shot to win. The #5 LA VELOZ was second in a slow heat in her latest although the race really didn’t set up very well for her; she’s been consistent this year and looks like the solid TRIACTOR and SUPERFECTA runner.
Race #8
1st - #4 What R The Odds | 2nd - #5 P.S. Good N Ready | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #4 WHAT R THE ODDS has been very impressive in both of her starts and with her already working five-eighths in 59.60 she seems to be an extremely advanced filly both mentally and physically which is huge edge with young fillies. The #5 P.S. GOOD N READY was quite impressive in her maiden score as she ran down a nice colt in the stretch going three and as half furlongs giving me every indication that she’ll be better at this trip; she’s worked well and looks like one that can possibly beat the chalk. The #1 CIELO ROJO would’ve won her last with a clean trip through the lane but things got very tight and Valdez couldn’t ride the filly so she wound up third; she too has worked well and with two-turn race under her belt she could be a threat as well.Race #9
1st - #4 Flaming Zianah | 2nd - #1 Courtay Cutie | 3rd - #3 Bamboo Diva
COMMENTARY : The #4 FLAMING ZIANAH was a solid second as the 2-1 favourite when dropped down to this level two weeks back and probably only needs to repeat that effort to win today. The #1 COURTAY CUTIE was a closing in her first start of the season which was a big improvement over her races of 2007; she’ll need some pace help but even if she doesn’t get it I like her to finish in the top three. The #3 BAMBOO DIVA went a little too fast in her latest as she battled through some pretty quick splits for this caliber; she gets in light and if she can set a sensible pace she could last a long ways.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON AT THE RACES !!!