Mike's Race Analysis July 11, 2008
Race #1
1st - #3 Golden Pursuit | 2nd - #2 Victim Of Love | 3rd - #5 Tango Mango
COMMENTARY : The #3 GOLDEN PURSUIT is back in at the claim price today after a no-threat run for $35,000; he finds a field with plenty of early speed in it which will aid his off-the-pace style and I like him to get up and win. The #2 VICTIM OF LOVE got caught up on a hot pace in his comeback race and wasn’t a factor late; he’s in with easier competition today but still will have a battle for the lead. The #5 TANGO MANGO is a consistent sort that gives you an honest effort every time he runs; he’s a versatile type which will come in handy in this dash.
Race #2
1st - #1 Nuclear Prospect | 2nd - #5 Gallery Girl | 3rd - #6 Saratoga Pass
COMMENTARY : The #1 NUCLEAR PROSPECT ran reasonably well in his debut checking in third, he finished with good energy and if he’s a bit sharper away from the gate this time he should win the money. The #5 GALLERY GIRL is from a good family and has a nice work tab so she looks like a ‘live’ first timer. The #6 SARATOGA PASS has slowish works but this barn has connected with many winners using this same type of ‘slow works’ approach in the past.
Race #3
1st - #5 Post Rio | 2nd - #2 You'rejustlikeme | 3rd - #7 Da Svedonya
COMMENTARY : The #5 POST RIO has been away from the races for almost a year but has a solid work tab and is aggressively spotted for $8,000 this afternoon. The #2 YOU’REJUSTLIKEME is taking a big class drop after her fourth consecutive loss at the $15,000 level; she has good speed and will take some beating but with other speed signed on in here I took a shot that the #5 POST RIO could nail her in the stretch. The #7 DA SVEDONYA has struggled of late on the tough Southern Cal circuit but with lots of speed in here and an easier assignment ahead of her she could wake up.Race #4
1st - #5 T.J. Hennessy | 2nd - #8 When In Rome | 3rd - #1 French Roast
COMMENTARY : The #5 T.J. HENNESSY looks to be the lone speed in this dash and I’ll gamble that he can get back to his solid form of last season. The #8 WHEN IN ROME has been a consistent performer since coming to Hastings, he has a stalking style which gives him a shot to win every time and it appears that he’ll get a good trip from his outside draw; solid EXACTOR play. The #1 FRENCH ROAST has been away from the races for about six months but he’s run well fresh in the past so don’t leave him out.Race #5
1st - #7 Spirit Bear | 2nd - #1 Sultan Of Skat | 3rd - #2 The Saratoga Four
COMMENTARY : The #7 SPIRIT BEAR set a demanding pace at this level last time out and held well to finish third; this race looks to have a come up a lot easier and even though he’ll have to work hard for the lead I still think he’ll find the finish line first. The #1 SULTAN OF SKAT came up with a much better effort last time checking in third and with the addition of Lasix today he should be a strong threat. The #2 THE SARATOGA FOUR is way down in class after being a pace casualty once again; he gets in light and might be able to turn things around in this spot.
Race #6
1st - #7 Undersecretary | 2nd - #6 Dalton Green | 3rd - #5 He's Quite A Guy
COMMENTARY : The #7 UNDERSECRETARY sat in the three path the whole race and still managed to cruise to a comfortable win with conditional $8,000 claimers; he’s in with open company but has proven he can run with these in the past so I think he’ll repeat. The #6 DALTON GREEN is down in price after a disappointing finish in his latest; he must be respected at this price and distance even though he loses his pilot to my top pick. The #5 HE’S QUITE A GUY ran very well at this trip considering he was pressured on the head end throughout the entire journey; he’s up slightly in class but definitely fits with these.Race #7
1st - #7 Made For Magic | 2nd - #4 Sophisticated Sis | 3rd - #2 Saratoga Renegade
COMMENTARY : The #7 MADE FOR MAGIC is making her first start of the year after a successful two year old campaign where she battled with champion Smarty Deb (fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) she should get a good trip sitting close to the pace and if she’s ready she should be tough to beat. The #4 SOPHISTICATED SIS will likely control the pace and with her getting away from the stakes fillies I like her chances in this easier spot. The #2 SARATOGA RENEGADE has the highest Beyer figure (71) of any of these fillies a number she earned when breaking her maiden; gets Fuentes subbing for Gutierrez who is on his way to Florida to ride Dancing Allstar on Saturday afternoon.Race #8
1st - #3 Our Gin Girl | 2nd - #5 Stylen Jaynee | 3rd - #2 Cash For Diamonds
COMMENTARY : The #3 OUR GIN GIRL ran well in her debut and only needs to improve a bit to turn the tables on my second pick #5 STYLEN JAYNEE. The latter had the experience edge last time as well as a better trip but that could change this afternoon. The #2 CASH FOR DIAMONDS closed up nicely to get fourth money in her latest and that was enough for me to put her in the money with this group.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND ENJOY THE DAY !!!