Mike's Race Analysis July 1, 2008
Race #1
1st - #3 Nuclear Prospect | 2nd - #4 Rock Royal | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #3 NUCLEAR PROSPECT has a series of good works in preparation for his debut; the connections are potent combo and I expect him to be ‘live’. The #4 ROCK ROYAL is from strong family and has some decent works; could be the VALUE play. The #1 FLYING KATANA is another that is bred to be quick and Jordan might be giving Velazquez a shot as he ' s been a dedicated exercise rider for the barn all year.Race #2
1st - #5 Afleet Allstar | 2nd - #3 Super Red Rabbit | 3rd - #6 Happy Go Lucky
COMMENTARY : The #5 AFLEET ALLSTAR battled hard on the pace in his last and tired late to finish third; the rail was not the place to be that day so his performance was better than it appears; he gets another chance from me. The #3 SUPER RED RABBIT turned in a good effort from a tough post last time and looks to be on the improve; he's facing slightly tougher today but I think he'll give a good account of himself. The #6 HAPPY GO LUCKY showed some run in his debut and with the threat of a pace duel looming he could be a factor in the stretch.Race #3
1st - #1 Patriotic | 2nd - #8 Montello | 3rd - #2 Jumper
COMMENTARY : The #1 PATRIOTIC woke up at long odds with Gutierrez last weekend and with this race featuring early speed I think he can sit in behind the leaders and be very tough to beat from there if he can reproduce his latest effort. The #8 MONTELLO is the best horse in the race but I'm a little concerned with the lack of a.m. activity which is the only reason I've left him in the PLACE spot. The #2 JUMPER split his season between here and Edmonton and really never got anything going; he has an excellent work tab so perhaps the freshening has done him well.Race #4
1st - #4 Magna Force | 2nd - #6 Jajas Legacy | 3rd - #7 Mr. Saturday Dance
COMMENTARY : The #4 MAGNA FORCE ran very well from an outside post when dropped down to this condition and with a better draw today he should be very tough to outrun. The #6 JAJAS LEGACY had a troubled trip in his last in which he finished just in behind my top pick; this looks like a solid EXACTOR BOX. The #7 MR. SATURDAY DANCE has trained smartly for his first start of the year and if he can regain his form then he should be in the top three.
Race #5
1st - #7 Trippi Bree | 2nd - #10 Harriette Topper | 3rd - #2 Cahill Casey
COMMENTARY : The #7 TRIPPI BREE is taking a big drop after a win via DQ in her latest; she has a ton of early speed and should romp at this level. The #10 HARRIETTE TOPPER turned in some good efforts with tough company in Northern Cal and if the #7 TRIPPI BREE isn't at her best today then this gal can win. The #2 CAHILL CASEY earned a win with a game wire-to-wire performance but the task is tougher today; she'll be coming from off-the-pace this afternoon and could be a threat late.
Race #6
1st - #3 Bank Emblem | 2nd - #2 Ookashada | 3rd - #6 Roscoe Pito
COMMENTARY : The #3 BANK EMBLEM gets a little class relief after an excellent try with stakes horses going long; he's back in sprinting where he's been unstoppable since coming north. The #2 OOKASHADA will be more of a factor today as he starts for a tag for the first time in his career; he's still a very talented horse but just can't seem to compete with this very tough older horses stakes division we have here at Hastings. He definitely needs a confidence boost and perhaps he'll get it today; chief threat to my top pick. The #6 ROSCOE PITO had to need his first start after a sixteen month break; he gets a much better post for his style and I look for him to rebound with a better showing.
Race #7
1st - #2 Candy King | 2nd - #4 Distorted Glamour | 3rd - #6 Seminole Brave
COMMENTARY : The #2 CANDY KING just missed in a quick heat in his latest and I think today he's going to get an ideal setup as there's a ton of speed in here to aid his off-the-pace style. The #4 DISTORTED GLAMOUR is in an easier spot today but still must deal with a couple of challengers for the early lead; pace threat if left alone early. The #6 SEMINOLE BRAVE defeated my top pick last time but he benefited from a perfect trip and I don't see him getting that fortunate again this afternoon.Race #8
1st - #1 Sir Gallovic | 2nd - #6 Spaghetti Mouse | 3rd - #7 Lord Avalon
COMMENTARY : The #1 SIR GALLOVIC hasn't been as sharp as he was last year but I'll take a shot on him to improve today; he gets a bit of a break from his main rival in the weights which could be a factor. The #6 SPAGHETTI MOUSE has an amazing record at this nine furlong distance and will try for his third consecutive Lt. Governors win. The #7 LORD AVALON is an interesting newcomer that must have some run to him or veteran trainer Mike Chambers wouldn't have sent him up; he's only started four times (winning three) in his brief career and obviously gives up stakes experience but he's fresh and on the improve so beware !!Race #9
1st - #9 Man O d’Amour | 2nd - #4 Bartzella | 3rd - #7 Smart Gamble
COMMENTARY : The #9 MAN O D'AMOUR has a sharp work (1:01.40) since his career debut in which he finished well back for $35,000; he's down for $11,000 today and I think he'll be more of a factor. The #4 BARTZELLA had a bit of trouble early in his debut and ran on reasonably well; he has that race in him now and with this dash coming up pretty soft for the level he should be in the exotics. The #7 SMART GAMBLE was better in blinkers last time chasing the pace out wide and holding well for fourth money; all he'll need is a better trip to win the money.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY THE CANADA DAY HOLIDAY !!