Mike's Race Analysis August 30, 2008
Race #1
1st - #2 Badgett’s Star | 2nd - #1 Serafina Lady | 3rd - #4 Big Bertha
COMMENTARY : The #2 BADGETT’S STAR won her last start at this level quite comfortably and with her likely to get things even easier on the head end today she’s going to be tough to catch. The #1 SERAFINA LADY finished just in behind my top pick last time and with the pace scenario favouring the #2 BADGETT’S STAR she may have to settle for second money again this afternoon. The # 4 BIG BERTHA gets an easier assignment as she drops in for a price but if she’s to win today she’ll have to flash some speed and stay close to the pace; capable but needs her best !!
Race #2
1st - #3 Dancing O | 2nd - #1 La Veloz | 3rd - #4 Tribal Secret
COMMENTARY : The #3 DANCING O has been picking up minor some cheques while racing with tougher company; she’ll appreciate getting in with her own age group and will likely be the one that enjoys the distance change the most so I’ll take her to win this one. The #1 LA VELOZ is the experienced runner at this trip and even though she hasn’t raced in over six weeks I still like her chances of hitting the board with these gals. The #4 TRIBAL SECRET just broke her maiden in a decent time and appears to me to be one that won’t mind this mile and a sixteenth trip so if she can set comfortable fractions she could be tough to beat.
Race #3
1st - #2 Mr. Nutcracker | 2nd - #8 Fine Elly Mine | 3rd - #5 Cagey Curt
COMMENTARY : The #2 MR. NUTCRACKER is sharp right now and has sprinted well in his last two starts; he’s trying this longer race for the first time but he’s bred to love it so I think he has a great shot today. The #8 FINE ELLY MINE looked good in winning at this trip last time out and with no real other speed in the lineup he may get things pretty easy on the lead and be brave right down to the wire. The #5 CAGEY CURT is better than his form shows but he will need to stop spotting the field five or six lengths at the start if he’s to spring the upset; if he breaks well I expect him to be on the board; Upset Special.Race #4
1st - #5 Midnight Search | 2nd - #1 Tongue And Groove | 3rd - #3 Nevanova
COMMENTARY : The #5 MIDNIGHT SEARCH was sent along a little too fast last time (21.80) and it cost her late but if she’s allowed to set a sensible pace this afternoon she should stay on for the win. The #1 TONGUE AND GROOVE did well to get up for second after stumbling at the start which cost her five lengths; if the speed comes back then she’s the one that’ll likely get the money. The #3 NEVANOVA ran better last time and would’ve been closer if hadn’t lugged in and was difficult to handle through the stretch drive; she’s definitely the Value Play in this dash.Race #5
1st - #3 Till The Storm | 2nd - #6 Willie Katchem | 3rd - #2 Usher Inc.
COMMENTARY : The #3 TILL THE STORM is facing a much easier task today and if he can repeat his last race (close fourth despite a wide trip) then I think he’s the one to beat. The #6 WILLIE KATCHEM took advantage of a perfect trip to defeat slightly easier competition; he’s bred the only one to have won at race going this far so he must be respected. The #2 USHER INC. was stuck in behind horses on the final bend and got out too late and had to settle for an unlucky third place finish; he’s a big horse that should appreciate this distance.
Race #6
1st - #5 Dancing Allstar | 2nd - #4 Remarkable Miss | 3rd - #2 Blue Sky Holiday
COMMENTARY : The #5 DANCING ALLSTAR is on a two race losing streak running with some very tough competition back east; she still hasn’t really been challenged in any of her races (6 for 6 lifetime at Hastings) in Vancouver and at 124 pounds going a mile and a sixteenth she’s still the one to beat. The #4 REMARKABLE MISS is on a two race winning streak against the local fillies and has looked good going long and if she’s ever going to beat the “Allstar’ it maybe today. The #2 BLUE SKY HOLIDAY almost pulled off a big upset in the Distaff on BC Cup day as she loomed up in the stretch and just missed by a half-length; she’s in top form right now and is another the has a shot today with a repeat performance of her latest effort.Race #7
1st - #6 Bank Emblem | 2nd - #1 Fuhrever Dancing | 3rd - #4 And All That Jazz
COMMENTARY : The #6 BANK EMBLEM was bottled up on the inside in the Sprint on BC Cup day and really never got a clear path to run in but with him moving to the outside I think he’ll have dead aim on the speed and will rebound with a big performance today. The #1 FUHREVER DANCING might be the best horse in the race but I think his inside post could give him some troubles; the trip is so important is these competitive six furlong races. Talent is definitely there but he’ll still need some luck to win. The #4 AND ALL THAT JAZZ took full advantage of a speed favouring track and wired them at 18-1 in the Sprint; he’ll pick up 10 pounds today but his speed will keep him clear of trouble and make him dangerous at this shorter trip.Race #8
1st - #2 Wings Of An Eagle | 2nd - #7 He’s Quite A Guy | 3rd - #5 Lil Victor G
COMMENTARY : The #2 WINGS OF AN EAGLE ran very well last time and just missed to a horse that came back to win for $8,000 next time out. He should be in a good spot early and is the one to beat. The #7 HE’S QUITE A GUY wasn’t disgraced in the marathon series in his last and with him back in for $5,000 he has a great shot as well although his price will be a better one. The #5 LIL VICTOR G is another exiting the marathon series and retains leading rider so he deserves respect in this one also.
GOOD LCUK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR DAY AT THE RACES !!!
