Mike's Race Analysis August 22, 2008
Race #1
1st - #4 Nights Radiance | 2nd - #2 Mr. Nutcracker | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #4 NIGHTS RADIANCE ran alright in his first start with winners finishing a close fourth but with a bunch of early speed in this dash and his winning pilot returning I think he’ll have a better shot of winning today; his main competitors all appear to want to race near the lead which will suit his off-the-pace style just fine. The #2 MR. NUTCRACKER crushed a field of bottom level maidens in wire-to-wire fashion a couple of weeks back but he’ll likely let the speed go and sit just in behind the leaders this time which will enhance his chances today. The #1 ENTRY both have a shot in this race with good trips so I’ll give them the third spot on the TRIACTOR ticket.Race #2
1st - #2 Metatron | 2nd - #5 Californiatruegrit | 3rd - #1 Irish Opinion
COMMENTARY : The #2 METATRON has been running and gunning for the lead in his last two starts with the young apprentice in tow and getting tired in the late stages but with a better post today he could get a more relaxed ride which I hope leads to a win for the ‘old guy’ this afternoon. The #5 CALIFORNIATRUEGRIT crashed and burned as the favourite in a tough $15,000 claimer but he’s back in at a level where he should be tough to run down. The #1 IRISH OPINION flew late to get the money with a similar field two weeks ago but with the pace scenario looking a little kinder for the early speed types it may be tough for him to get up and get all the money again today but he should still catch a few to get into the top three.Race #3
1st - #2 Critical Choice | 2nd - #5 Fasionable Affair | 3rd - #6 Fatal Zone
COMMENTARY : The #2 CRITICAL CHOICE is exiting two extremely tough maiden races (produced two stakes winners) and is one likely to enjoy this longer trip; she has a good post and top connections and I’ll take her to win it. The #5 FASHIONABLE AFFAIR closed up smartly in her debut and was haltered for the $15,000 out of that race; she has a decent work and is another that will appreciate this longer maiden race. The #6 FATAL ZONE has prepped nicely for her debut and should be watched closely in the paddock; could be the VALUE play.Race #4
1st - #5 Avalanche Bay | 2nd - #7 Trippi Bree | 3rd - #3 Peacebethejourney
COMMENTARY : The #5 AVALANCHE BAY looks like she’s going to get a lot of things go her way today which I think will lead to big performance. She’s catching a field with many need-the-lead types and she’s also much better in the cooler temperatures and on ‘wet tracks’ (10 for 12 in the money on wet surfaces) so with the forecast calling for low temps and rain I’m forecasting a good effort from her. The # 7 TRIPPI BREE will be looking for the front end from her outside draw and she could be fast enough to clear which would definitely aid her chances; she’s been freshened up and has some solid works. The #3 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY hasn’t been the same exciting filly we saw visit the winner’s circle five times last year although her task is an easier one today.Race #5
1st - #7 Knighthood | 2nd - #6 Vintner | 3rd - #3 Buckaroo Lou
COMMENTARY : The #7 KNIGHTHOOD looked good winning in a fast time last weekend and if he’s able to reproduce that effort then he’ll likely win again but running back in just six days we may not see the same performance; tough call !! The #6 VINTNER didn’t get the best of trip last time as he was bottled up behind a slow pace and couldn’t shake loose until it was too late; needs a better trip and if he gets it he can definitely beat this group. The #3 BUCKAROO LOU just missed in his latest finishing in the runner-up spot for third time this year at this mile and sixteenth trip; he’ll be in position to win again today so he’s another that deserves respect in this spot.Race #6
1st - #5 Post Rio | 2nd - #3 You Won't Like It | 3rd - #6 Rich Debut
COMMENTARY : The #5 POST RIO should be tough to beat today as she turned another good effort last time but just fell three-quarters of a length short; she has speed and might even get the lead to herself and if she does then the winner’s cheque will go to her. The #3 YOU WON’T LIKE IT was distant fourth behind the #5 POST RIO last time but it was her first race two and half months so I expect a better run from her today. The #6 RICH DEBUT should be in a good stalking position early and will likely be part of the TRIACTOR if she gets that kind of trip.Race #7
1st - #3 Dalton Green | 2nd - #7 Undersecretary | 3rd - #4 Kinda Special
COMMENTARY : The #3 DALTON GREEN is a consistent and reliable sort that puts himself in a good spot early which gives him a shot to win every time. He has a tactical edge on his two main rivals and won’t mind if the track is wet so to me he seems like the solid one to play in here. The #7 UNDERSECRETARY might be more talented than my top pick but there are definitely reasons to try and beat him; the pace scenario doesn’t look as favourable for him and he’s also ‘iffy’ on a wet track so I’ll leave him in the runner-up spot today. The #4 KINDA SPECIAL has been pretty consistent this year and won stylishly going long last time; he looks to be the controlling speed but at nine furlongs I think the top two will reel him in.Race #8
1st - #8 Savahana | 2nd - #9 Iamontoyou | 3rd - #1 Notis Me
COMMENTARY : The #8 SAVAHANA has had a tough season in the post draws this year which these cheaper maidens definitely don’t need; she’s bred to improve at this longer trip and with her racing evenly in her sprints she could be one that takes to this longer journey. The #9 IAMONTOYOU has been making some progress against her rivals in the stretch sprinting and is another that could take to this mile and a sixteenth trip. The #1 NOTIS ME is lightly raced and eligible to improve; she has the rail and a decent form which is enough to give her a big chance in this soft maiden race.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR DAY AT THE RACES !!!
