Mike's Race Analysis August 15, 2008
Race #1
1st - #1 Tribal Secret | 2nd - #6 Saratoga Flame | 3rd - #5 Iamontoyou
COMMENTARY : The #1 TRIBAL SECRET is cutting her price in half today after a couple of third place runs with $15,000 maidens; she should be in a good striking position and just needs to stay clear of trouble on the rail and she’ll be tough to beat. The #6 SARATOGA FLAME has some excuses in her last and wound up a distant second; she’s lightly raced and one that could continue to improve so I’ll give her a big shot this afternoon. The #5 IAMONTOYOU got a runner-up cheque last time in a slow heat and needs to be better to win in this spot although she ‘s likely to get a contested pace in front of her which will aid her chances.
Race #2
1st - #6 Good Bad N Ugly | 2nd - #3 Colondelivery | 3rd - #1 Joyride
COMMENTARY : The #6 GOOD BAD N UGLY was re-claimed by the leading outfit for $15,000 and they opt to jam him right back in for the same price; he’s likely to get an easy lead in this nine furlong test and from there he’s going to be tough to beat. The #3 COLONDELIVERY has been sharp in his last two starts and should be in a good position early which will give him a shot to beat the favourite; main threat. The #1 JOYRIDE wasn’t disgraced in his return to Hastings finishing a close fifth behind my top pick; the extra distance will help but he’ll still need some help to make him a winner.
Race #3
1st - #4 Saleslady | 2nd - #3 Never Assume | 3rd - #8 Lornamahra
COMMENTARY : The #4 SALESLADY just missed in her debut going shorter and that race should set her up for a top performance today; she has speed, a good post and will race on Lasix for the first time so I like her to go wire-to-wire. The #3 NEVER ASSUME got some experience out of her two one-turn races and finally gets to stretch out to a distance that should bring out the bets in her; her post is a tricky one going six furlongs but with leading rider in the tack she’ll likely end up in a great spot early; definite contender. The #8 LORNAMAHRA could be the ‘value’ play in this dash as she was hung out wide in her lone run and has some respectable drills for this race so I think she’ll be a big factor today.Race #4
1st - #4 Bad Sneakers | 2nd - #5 Golden Pursuit | 3rd - #6 French Roast
COMMENTARY : The #4 BAD SNEAKERS gets some much needed class relief after five tries with some tough company going short and long; he’ll probably get the lead in this one which is where you want to be with the best horse and IO don’t think he’ll get caught at this level. The #5 GOLDEN PURSUIT is a solid campaigner that seldom runs a bad race and surprisingly this will be the first time he gets to go long which is his best distance; if he can stay close early he has a shot of beating my top pick. The #6 FRENCH ROAST is another game old horse that always gives 110% when he comes over to race; he’s up in class (but has won at this price in the past) and should be a pace factor and when he’s on the lead his legs seem to get younger.Race #5
1st - #5 Beautiful Breeze | 2nd - #2 Instinctive | 3rd - #4 Mocha Time
COMMENTARY : The #5 BEAUTIFUL BREEZE is in a far easier spot this afternoon and should be tough to beat; she’s going to get a lively pace to run at which should insure a victory today. The #2 INSTINCTIVE got a little tired late after setting a crisp pace two weeks back and if she can relax a bit early then she has a chance; Triactor threat again. The #4 MOCHA TIME had a nice trip last time and looked like a winner but was reeled in late; a repeat effort gives her a big shot to win this dash.Race #6
1st - #2 Beckenbauer | 2nd - #1 Puerto Montt | 3rd - #8 Stouthearted
COMMENTARY : The #2 BECKENBAUER looks like the logical play in here as he drops out of open $15,000 company into this restricted event; the early fractions will be lively which will aid his off-the-pace style and he’ll also get blinkers today. The #1 PUERTO MONTT has three consecutive runner-up efforts at this level and is due to break through with a win; he has speed and the rail so if he gets to set a sensible pace he’ll win but if he gets a bunch of pressure he might have to settle for second again today. The #8 STOUTHEARTED has been freshened up after a couple of disappointing runs; he’s definitely capable and if can get back to that form that he had earlier this season then he has a big chance as well.Race #7
1st - #5 Heaven On Hold | 2nd - #4 Mahaty Jo | 3rd - #3 Diamond Berries
COMMENTARY : The #5 HEAVEN ON HOLD might not be at her best distance today but she’s the best filly in the race so I expect her to stay on for the win. She raced with older mares in a tough allowance event last time out and finished a respectable fourth and her race in the $53,000 Supernaturel Stakes would beat this field so I have to side with her. The #4 MAHATY JO was given a perfect ride last time as she sat in behind a pace duel and ran on well to third on BC Cup day; she hasn’t missed the board this year and as long as the quick turnaround doesn’t bother her then she’ll be on the board again this afternoon. The #3 DIAMOND BERRIES seemed to take to the added distance quite nicely in her last start which was with the boys; her final time compares favourably to most of these fillies so she’s another that has a shot.Race #8
1st - #8 Cahilty Cat | 2nd - #7 Cinderella Ella | 3rd - #4 Midnight Search
COMMENTARY : The #8 CAHILTY CAT turned in a good effort at this level time and if the outside post doesn’t bother her too much then she’ll be tough to beat. The #7 CINDERELLA ELLA is a recent import from Southern Cal that has a nice form and should be respected in this spot. The #4 MIDNIGHT SEARCH gets a tougher assignment today after her game run first time out; she loses her pilot to first-timer (#6 ALARMING) but picks up a good speed rider. Pace threat !!
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