Mike's Race Analysis September 9, 2007
Race #1
1st - #3 A Ten I Am | 2nd - #7 Forest Ballet | 3rd - #8 Dream Queen
COMMENTARY : The #3 A TEN I AM battled on a contested pace with much tougher company last time and with things looking easier on the head end I think she'll stay the entire trip on top. The #7 FOREST BALLET went wrong on the first turn in her career debut and was pulled up; she's been working stylishly for her return and could come back with a big performance. The #8 DREAM QUEEN made up good ground against a slow pace in her latest but I'm worried that the same pace scenario will occur again today although I still like her to rally and get into the top three.
Race #2
1st - #2 Windy Day | 2nd - #4 Osolucky | 3rd - #5 Woody's Diamond
COMMENTARY : The #2 WINDY DAY is taking a huge drop in price for this race and actually his last two races are better than they appear at first glance so I'll take the hot combo of Gutierrez/Taylor to win another. The #4 OSOLUCKY is down in price as well and did defeat my top pick by a couple of lengths the only time they met this year back on July 20th; definite threat. The #5 WOODY'S DIAMOND is exiting the marathon series after his hard fought runner-up effort on B.C. Cup day; he's worked well since that race and might have a tactical edge on his two chief rivals so he deserves respect as well.
Race #3
1st - #1 James Creek Red | 2nd - #4 Western Roller | 3rd - #6 Alpha Danjur
COMMENTARY : The #1 JAMES CREEK RED should've won easily last time but he was hung four and five wide throughout the entire trip and amazingly still got second; he's better drawn for his style and as long as doesn't get another brutal trip he should win. The #4 WESTERN ROLLER will get his toughest test to date after his second consecutive victory three weeks ago; he's probably better at this longer distance and if the pace gets a little silly then this guy can win it. The #6 ALPHA DANJUR is in a lot cheaper after the claim for $20,000 two starts back and will have to stretch his speed out to a mile and a sixteenth today although he wasn't disgraced in his lone try going long this year so he'll gets lots of interest at the windows.
Race #4
1st - #6 Classical | 2nd - #1 Northland Glory | 3rd - #3 Miss Jones
COMMENTARY : The #6 CLASSICAL has been banging heads with some high-end maidens throughout the first part of the year and in her last two has taken home a couple of small paycheques but she's been given a much easier assignment today and I think she'll reward her connections with a victory. The #1 NORTHLAND GLORY has a ton of ability but she's been a real problem child at the gate; if she's on her best behaviour she'll win for fun. The #3 MISS JONES hails from a top barn and has some decent morning trials; she really isn't facing too tough of a field to begin her career so she could surprise some people.
Race #5
1st - #1 Contessa Kat | 2nd - #7 Shirleyanne | 3rd - #4 Winter Chill
COMMENTARY : The #1 CONTESSA KAT had a solid even sprint run in her latest which should set her up nicely for this mile and a sixteenth race; she has speed and the rail but her speed is very manageable which is huge key in being able to run long and I think she'll have no troubles adjusting to her new task. The #7 SHIRLEYANNE looped the field to win going away with easier maidens and even she loses her winning pilot I think this race will set up well for her off-the-pace style. The #4 WINTER CHILL has been running well with older mares in her last three distance tries and it'll be nice to be in with own age group today.
Race #6
1st - #5 Louder | 2nd - #7 Sunrise Serenade | 3rd - #3 Jule Bandit
COMMENTARY : The #5 LOUDER isn't facing a very tough group and even though there isn't much early speed in here I still like his chances of circling the field. The #7 SUNRISE SERENADE is down in price searching for his first win of the year and looks like the strongest threat to my top pick; he's run well with the $15,000 types and has a little speed which should allow him to get a good trip so he should be a big factor today. The #3 JULE BANDIT hit the board in his latest at the $11,000 level, he gets leading rider and on his best day he can beat the top two although he's not the most consistent sort around.
Race #7
1st - #2 Silver Barrage | 2nd - #8 Scots Pine | 3rd - #6 Just A Country Boy
COMMENTARY : The #2 SILVER BARRAGE overstepped a condition and almost got the victory losing in deep stretch to a horse that came back to beat $8,000 open company; he's been on the improve ever since the Lasix was added and with this race coming up pretty soft I think he'll win the money. The #8 SCOTS PINE looks to be the main danger to my top selection; he has speed and is taking a significant dip in class so he deserves respect as well. The #6 JUST A COUNTRY BOY was a scratch on post parade three weeks ago but has come back to work comfortably on two different occasions and I'll gamble that what was bothering that day won't be a bother today.
Race #8
1st - #1 Meritocratic | 2nd - #4 Sly Striker | 3rd - #2 Captain T W Bly
COMMENTARY : The #1 MERITOCRATIC just missed at this same level in an excellent time and with this race really not coming up any tougher then a repeat performance from him should get the money. The #4 SLY STRIKER wasn't as fast as he normally is in his race last time but he still showed good interest late in the race which should set him up for a top effort today; I look for him to flash a lot more speed and try and get in front of his main competition (#1 Meritocratic) which is his only shot of beating that one. The #2 CAPTAIN T W BLY is back in sprinting after a no-threat run in Alberta, he'll need to see a quick pace up front to make him a winner but even if the pace scenario is average I still think he'll be part of the TRIACTOR and SUPERFECTA.
Race #9
1st - #4 Star Prospector | 2nd - #6 Desert Alf | 3rd - #1 Surprisal
COMMENTARY : The #4 STAR PROSPECTOR is riding a three race winning streak and two of them were stakes victories and he looks good in this spot to get another one; he has excellent gate speed so he should on the lead and with him facing three maidens he shouldn't get caught. The #6 DESERT ALF was very good in his debut closing up powerfully in the stretch to get the runner-up spot; he's worked well and looks like a talented one with a bright future. The #1 SURPRISAL finished a little less than five lengths behind the #4 STAR PROSPECTOR on B.C. Cup day and if he can break a bit better and continue his improving trend then he could be a factor in the late going.
Race #10
1st - #6 My Entitlement | 2nd - #7 Makani | 3rd - #8 Lady Vitesse
COMMENTARY : The #6 MY ENTITLEMENT hooked into a tiger in her comeback race and had to settle for second money but with this dash looking like it's coming up quite a bit easier I think she'll get the job done in her second race after the brief freshening. The #7 MAKANI has a lot of ability and just needs to be better at the start and if she can leave the gate with the field then she has a good chance as well. The #8 LADY VITESSE has been a solid filly this year racing with slightly easier maidens and actually has been unlucky not to have broken her maiden by now; her speed makes her a huge threat.
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