Mike's Race Analysis September 30, 2007
Race #1
1st - #5 Big Shiny | 2nd - #2 Taylor's Route | 3rd - #6 Royal Sovereign
COMMENTARY : The #5 BIG SHINY had a wide trip in his latest run and I thought with a decent trip he would've been second that day; he's drawn outside but I think he can get into a good spot early and that should be all he needs to get his second career victory. The #2 TAYLOR'S ROUTE wanted no part of Sir Gallovic in the Derby Trial and is back in a much better spot this afternoon; he looks to be the controlling speed so with leading rider in the irons he could prove tough to catch. The #6 ROYAL SOVEREIGN wasn't beaten all that far for second last time and considering he was bothered early costing him a couple of lengths I thought he did quite well; there is a smaller field today which will help but he'll still need a pace battle to make him a winner.
Race #2
1st - #6 Count Your Dreams | 2nd - #1 Northland Glory | 3rd - #7 Kirschgarten
COMMENTARY : The #6 COUNT YOUR DREAMS has been tackling tougher maidens and if she can get away well and sit just off of the speedy #1 NORTHLAND GLORY then she should be very tough. The latter came back off of a lengthy layoff to just miss against softer maidens; her speed makes her dangerous. The #7 KIRSCHGARTEN had every shot to win her last but fell a half-length short at the end; she has an outside post which could cost her early position but I still think she'll be in the top three.
Race #3
1st - #4 Turbo Tommy | 2nd - #3 Dr. J.C. | 3rd - #6 J D's Carson Copy
COMMENTARY : The #4 TURBO TOMMY scratched out of a sprint on Saturday opting for this longer race and I think the connections did the right thing and I look for him to win very easily in this spot. The #3 DR. J. C. has finished behind my top pick the last three times they've met and I see that happening again today; he's better than most in here so I like him for second. The #6 J D'S CARSON COPY was second the last time he raced at this distance but with this race coming up tougher I think he may have to settle for third today.
Race #4
1st - #3 Windy Breeze | 2nd - #5 Peacebethejourney | 3rd - #7 Vye Me To The Moon
COMMENTARY : The #3 WINDY BREEZE just finished winning in a good time with $35,000 mares in her first start after the $20,000 claim so it's a shocker to see her entered for $8,000 this afternoon. There are three options: KEY her on all wagers, throw her right out or pass on the race. TOUGH CALL, WATCH HER IN THE PADDOCK !! The #5 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY is back in at a better level for her and normally she would be a heavy favourite (not today) with her regular pilot jumping back in the saddle; she's the logical safe play !! The #7 VYE ME TO THE MOON has the potential to run fast enough to beat these mares and latest effort was an encouraging one in which she held second and actually relaxed on the lead reasonably well.
Race #5
1st - #10 Gold Star Status | 2nd - #8 Brave Irish | 3rd - #1 Settowin
COMMENTARY : The #10 GOLD STAR STATUS is down a peg in class after his impressive debut at Hastings; he's drawn the outside but might actually rate kinder after him having to be sent hard to maintain the lead on the rail last time; it's tough to go against the connections that have been going so well. The #8 BRAVE IRISH wasn't a factor in his last race although it was at the maiden allowance level; he's way down in class and if he can work out a decent trip he could be 'live' against this much easier competition. The #1 SETTOWIN chased those fast splits that were being set by the #10 GOLD STAR STATUS last time and ran on well to get the runner-up spot; he's drawn well and should be a major threat again today.
Race #6
1st - #1 Dancing Melody | 2nd - #7 Juvee Hall | 3rd - #2 Scottish Billie
COMMENTARY : The #1 DANCING MELODY has been in three tough maiden races so far in her brief career and she's fared very well on all occasions so with this dash coming up much softer I like her chances of winning the money today. The #7 JUVEE HALL was impressive in her debut finishing a game third behind a couple of experienced fillies; she's come back to work very stylishly since that race so looks to be the main danger to my top selection. The #2 SCOTTISH BILLIE was much improved in first start off the claim and actually looked like a winner at the top of the stretch before getting a little tired late; she's drawn well and with a solid race under her belt she could be a big factor as well.
Race #7
1st - #5 Alpine Secret | 2nd - #3 Ebonys Silver Star | 3rd - #9 Tyra
COMMENTARY : The #5 ALPINE SECRET looks to be the only speed in this one and with a repeat of her last race I think she'll win the money this time. The #3 EBONYS SILVER STAR lost her race at the gate last time and if she's on her best behaviour she can beat these gals. PRICE PLAY !! The #9 TYRA is tackling older mares this afternoon after getting hung on the also-eligible's with the three year old fillies on Saturday; she has speed and if she can work out a decent trip she could be factor.
Race #8
1st - #6 Northern Skipper | 2nd - #4 Paulswithdavid | 3rd - #5 Half A Hero
COMMENTARY : The #6 NORTHERN SKIPPER is due to hang on one of these times and I think it'll be today; he'll undoubtedly have to go quick to the get the lead but with no decent 'closer' in the race he should hit the finish line first. The #4 PAULSWITHDAVID hung in tough to end up a close fifth despite a wide trip from an outside post; he's drawn better today and should be right there at the end and he should be a nice price. The #5 HALF A HERO has been freshened up after a couple of disappointing efforts in the early summer; his lone sprint this year was against a very tough group so finishing fourth wasn't actually all that bad; he could be the best 'closer' in the group.
Race #9
1st - #2 Just A Country Boy | 2nd - #7 Rx Registrar | 3rd - #6 Organist
COMMENTARY : The #2 JUST A COUNTRY BOY romped by nine lengths over far easier conditional $8,000 runners but the race did serve as a confidence boost for him which he really needed this year; there appears to be plenty of speed in the lineup so I like his chances of rallying from off the pace to get a big chunk of the purse. The #7 RX REGISTRAR ran a much improved race with open $15,000 company last time and an effort like that would easily win a race at this level; he's facing far easier even though he's going up in price (this is a non-three lifetime for $20,000) and I think he's the one to beat but off of his last race he won't possess much value. The #6 ORGANIST is lightly raced and has the potential to beat a field like this so he deserves respect in this spot as well.
Race #10
1st - #5 Nijinsky Terzo | 2nd - #7 Alarico | 3rd - #4 Artic Star
COMMENTARY : The #5 NIJINSKY TERZO missed the break by about ten lengths in his debut then rushed up to get in contention at the quarter-pole before running out of gas; he's likely to improve in his second start and I think he will. The #7 ALARICO ran very well in his last considering he was four wide throughout much of the race and was running back in seven days; he has better spacing in between races this time and just needs a good trip to the win the money. The #4 ARTIC STAR was well backed in his debut and after rattling around in the gate prior to the race he really wasn't much of a factor; if he's better behaved in the gate he could rebound with a much better performance.
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