Mike's Race Analysis September 29, 2007
Race #1
1st - #2 Mundare | 2nd - #1 Sexy Operator | 3rd - #5 Loud Linda
COMMENTARY : The #2 MUNDARE is back in at a better distance for her and with this dash coming up a little weak I think she can get back on track this afternoon. The #1 SEXY OPERATOR has speed and the rail but still has to show a little more staying power; a repeat of her race two starts back probably wins her the money. The #5 LOUD LINDA was a solid fourth in a quick heat in her latest and looks to be the best of the rest.
Race #2
1st - #6 Alittlebitextra | 2nd - #4 Minutes Apart | 3rd - #5 Avalanche Bay
COMMENTARY : The #6 ALITTLEBITEXTRA is two-for-two this year when running at this $8,000 claiming level and with a sprinter like the #7 PROSPERITO insuring a solid pace she's going to be tough to fend off in the stretch. The #4 MINUTES APART has been a consistent performer this year and has a couple of narrow losses to my top pick which signals that she belongs with these gals and just needs a little pace help. The #5 AVALANCHE BAY continues her way down the claiming ladder in search of another win and off of her last effort she deserves respect in this easier spot.
Race #3
1st - #2 Shankill Road | 2nd - #1 Turbo Tommy | 3rd - #5 Lets Jet
COMMENTARY : The #2 SHANKILL ROAD showed a marked improvement in his second start and if he repeats his last he should be a wire-to-wire winner. The #1 TURBO TOMMY has failed in his last three maiden tries finishing second on all three occasions and with his lack of gate speed I think the #2 SHANKILL ROAD is going to get away on him and "Tommy might have to settle for another second place paycheque. The #5 LETS JET has been running with pricier maidens on a tougher circuit so watch this one in the paddock.
Race #4
1st - #2 About Midnight | 2nd - #4 How Iz It Sarah | 3rd - #1 Frankie's Kismet
COMMENTARY : The #2 ABOUT MIDNIGHT hooked into a couple of sharp ones in her last two and with this race coming up considerably easier she should be a big threat from an inside draw with leading rider up. The #4 HOW IZ IT SARAH ran a lot better in her latest as she missed the break then rushed up to be part of a very slow pace and did well to stay for second; needs to be quicker from the gate to win. The #1 FRANKIE'S KISMET looks like the best off-the-pace threat.
Race #5
1st - #9 Area Code | 2nd - #10 Johney Brocc | 3rd - #8 Williwaw
COMMENTARY : The #9 AREA CODE is down at a level where he should get the money and with the pace scenario looking favourable for him he looks to be a solid KEY on all wagers. The #10 JOHNEY BROCC has excellent speed and if he can shake loose early then he's 'live' on the big class drop as well. The #8 WILLIWAW just missed at this same level a couple of weeks back but with this particular dash coming up far tougher I've left him in the third spot.
Race #6
1st - #5 Too Much Drama | 2nd - #7 Slick Victor | 3rd - #1 Ranglin Road
COMMENTARY : The #5 TOO MUCH DRAMA takes a huge drop in price after his disappointing effort at the $20,000 back in July; he has speed and is facing a group he should crush and judging by his works he should be good for another victory. The #7 SLICK VICTOR is an off-the-pace threat that had a wide trip last time and if he can save a little ground early he might have a shot in the late going. The #1 RANGLIN ROAD had no chance with the big class dropper GHOST PIRATE last time out and unfortunately he draws a similar type runner coming down the ladder once again; a repeat of his race two starts back plots him in the thick of things.
Race #7
1st - #1 Path To Victory | 2nd - #9 Lookonthebriteside | 3rd - #3 Kokeeno
COMMENTARY : The #1 PATH TO VICTORY turned in a decent effort in her comeback race finishing fifth by a little more than five lengths but she faces much easier company for second start of the year and gets in light. The #9 LOOKONTHEBRITESIDE is another taking a big dip in price and if she can break (missed the start by three lengths) a little better this time then she has a great shot of beating my top pick. The #3 KOKEENO raced gamely on the head end in her first start since June; it was also her first try on Lasix but she will need to be better to stay with these tough fillies that are coming down the claiming ladder.
Race #8
1st - #6 Mining Interactive | 2nd - #4 B My Dream | 3rd - #5 Annikat
COMMENTARY : The #6 MINING INTERACTIVE was very impressive in her maiden score winning comfortably despite a slow beginning; she's facing a tougher assignment but I think she's ready and will win right back. The #4 B MY DREAM had a perfect trip to win narrowly in a very good time and if she gets a similar trip then she'll be a threat in the late going. The #5 ANNIKAT ran a much improved race in her last and should get a nice trip stalking the speed; TRIACTA threat.
Race #9
1st - #4 Meritocratic | 2nd - #6 If I'm Spared | 3rd - #7 Trouble Shooter
COMMENTARY : The #4 MERITOCRATIC is one of many horses on the card taking a big drop in price and with lots of speed in the lineup I think he'll get an ideal trip so if he repeats either of his last two races he should win at this reduced level. The #6 IF I'M SPARED has a pile of early speed but he has to harness it in order to stay the entire journey on top; where he finishes really relies on how much pressure other speed horses in here are going to put on him. The #7 TROUBLE SHOOTER would love to see a big time pace duel being set in front of him and could extend his winning streak to four; strong TRIACTA runner.
Race #10
1st - #9 Admiral Rodney | 2nd - #4 Jackson County | 3rd - #1 Mister La Rock
COMMENTARY : The #9 ADMIRAL RODNEY exits a pretty tough heat and I'll gamble that these easier opponents will bring out a better run from him. The #4 JACKSON COUNTY has had many chances to break through with a win and undoubtedly will get one very soon; TRIACTA threat. The #1 MISTER LA ROCK is lightly raced and is one that's eligible to improve; he has the rail and some speed which has been a dangerous combo the last couple of weekends.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON !!!