Mike's Race Analysis September 23, 2007
Race #1
1st - #5 Yoorock Gal | 2nd - #3 Wind Storm | 3rd - #2 Makani
COMMENTARY : The #5 YOOROCK GAL was much the best in her first start of the year but a tardy beginning and some trouble in the stretch caused her to finish second. Her latest run was a fifth place finish against the boys in which she chased a very fast pace but she’s in a much better spot today and I think she’ll get her first win of the season. The #3 WIND STORM is a very talented filly that won her last sprint in a scorching 1:16.60 and with her back in sprinting today she’ll be a big threat. The #2 MAKANI looked good breaking her maiden and is one eligible to keep on improving.
Race #2
1st - #8 Sunrise Serenade | 2nd - #5 Osolucky | 3rd - #4 Howe Sound
COMMENTARY : The #8 SUNRISE SERENADE has had a couple of wide trips with pricier company in his last two starts and with his best effort he should best this group. The #5 OSOLUCKY was a solid runner-up at this level last time and if my top pick isn’t at his best then this guy is the likely one to win. The #4 HOWE SOUND raced on the pace with the eventual winner WINDY DAY who had dropped down from $25,000 (and he’s back up there again later today) but there’s no tough pace competition in this one so he should be more of a factor in the stretch this time.
Race #3
1st - #7 K P Timber | 2nd - #6 Yoodaman | 3rd - #5 Singing Dixieland
COMMENTARY : The #7 K P TIMBER is given the easiest assignment a four year old winner can get at this non-two level for $8,000 and with no real other speed in the lineup he should win right back. The #6 YOODAMAN is making his first of the year but does sport some nice drills and is aggressively spotted today and he looks to be the main threat to my top selection. The #5 SINGING DIXIELAND had a rough trip in his last causing him to finish well back but I did like the sprint he turned in two starts ago and a repeat of that race should get him into the top three.
Race #4
1st - #1 Entry | 2nd - #5 Eagle River Man | 3rd - #3 Candy King
COMMENTARY : The #1 SPORTY JONES looks to be the strong half of the Bellevue Oaks owned entry after back-to-back runner-up efforts he should be able (with a clean trip) to break through and the his first victory. The #5 EAGLE RIVER MAN set a slow pace last time and couldn’t last but he must have bled as he races on Lasix this time; his speed makes him a threat but he will need to improve to get the money. The #3 CANDY KING was hurt by a slow pace last time and that is likely to happen again today but I still like his chances of getting into the top three.
Race #5
1st - #1 Classic County | 2nd - #6 J D's Carson Copy | 3rd - #10 Nickity Split
COMMENTARY : The #1 CLASSIC COUNTY has been threatening to get a win and I think he’ll finally get it today; he has the rail and leading rider staying on board and is facing a pretty soft crew so it looks like graduation day for him. The #6 J D’S CARSON COPY was a narrow loser going long and seems to be a better runner at that distance (long $5,000 maiden race failed to fill) but against this group sprinting I still like him to be in the EXACTA. The #10 NICKITY SPLIT raced extremely wide on the final bend costing him any shot at hitting the board and I’ll gamble that he gets a better trip and can catch some of the tiring speed.
Race #6
1st - #9 Lucky Cahill | 2nd - #3 Raymer Road | 3rd - #6 Goldrush Victory
COMMENTARY : The #9 LUCKY CAHILL hooked into a tough group last time and considering the fractions were slow I thought he did very well to get third money; this is a much easier assignment today and as long as the outside post doesn’t pose too much of a problem then I like him to win. The #3 RAYMER ROAD has been a solid horse at this level and with a good inside draw he should be tough again today. The #6 GOLDRUSH VICTORY is yet another that’ll be happy to be rid of ZIPPY ZAK who has been the king of the $5,000 category this year and with this race coming up light for speed he has a good shot sitting on what should be a comfortable early tempo.
Race #7
1st - #3 Lord Vic | 2nd - #11 Superior Straits | 3rd - #8 Equity Gainer
COMMENTARY : The #3 LORD VIC was wandering about on the final turn which cost him the win so the connections opt to put the blinkers back on today and that should be enough to get him to beat this group. The #11 SUPERIOR STRAITS had a rough trip last time as he stuck in behind some tiring speed and really didn’t shake loose until it was too late; he has a tricky post today but at least he’ll be clear of trouble and I think he’ll rebound with a good performance. The #8 EQUITY GAINER looked good in winning his maiden last time out, he’s been sharp of late and I think he’ll be in the TRIACTA and SUPERFECTA.
Race #8
1st - #6 Sin Toro | 2nd - #3 M L's Indian | 3rd - #7 Bad Sneakers
COMMENTARY : The #6 SIN TORO is a two-time stakes winner this year and most recently took the $15,000 Saskatchewan Derby in comfortable fashion; there looks to be a fair amount of pace in this one and that’ll help his chances a lot so I think a well-timed ride gets him the money. The #3 M L’S INDIAN is a rapidly improving one that could be a big factor today; he sports a two race winning streak but has yet to prove himself at this longer trip. The pace scenario will be the big key for him !! The #7 BAD SNEAKERS has been a nice colt this year being stakes placed on three occasions and the last one was behind the Derby favourite Sir Gallovic; he seems to be a versatile type that can race well using different running styles which could be a big key for him in this particular race.
Race #9
1st - #4 Sir Gallovic | 2nd - #6 Celtic Dreamin | 3rd - #7 Footprint
COMMENTARY : The #4 SIR GALLOVIC has made a huge impression in his two starts here in Vancouver winning off by seven lengths and stopping the timer in an amazing 1:43 and change in both races. He has tactical speed which is a big plus being able to get into a good striking position and if he fires like he did in his last two then someone is going to have to run the race of their life just to get near him. He’s the nicest three year old I’ve seen here in awhile !! The #6 CELTIC DREAMIN brings in excellent credentials into the Derby winning four of five career starts and the one loss was by a nose and that horse Latin Rhythms has since won the $100,000 El Cajon Stakes at Del Mar so he looks like the real deal and could give ‘Gallovic’ a run for the money. The #7 FOOTPRINT has been awesome of late winning his last three starts and has amassed over $360,000 in earnings to date; he’s a pace horse which is good in this one because his chief rivals are going to be near the pace and one doesn’t want to give anything away position-wise in such a big race. I’m a little concerned that the horses that he was beating in Alberta weren’t quite of the caliber of my top two picks but he’s winning races and doing it nicely and could step up with another huge run.
Race #10
1st - #6 True Metropolitan | 2nd - #1 Act Of God | 3rd - #3 Shacane
COMMENTARY : The #6 TRUE METROPOLITAN returns to Hastings sporting a two-race winning streak easily capturing the $100,000 Speed To Spare in Edmonton in his latest. He’s packing a fair amount of weight and is coming back in 15 days so he might be vulnerable today but I still think he’ll take home the big prize. The #1 ACT OF GOD has the ability to win today but will need to be more of a professional and run his career best if he’s to upset the reigning Horse-Of-The-Year; if Mario can get him to rate kindly and make his move after the half-mile pole then he has a shot of winning but if he continues to misspend his energy he’ll have to settle for a minor award again today. The #3 SHACANE is a neat old horse that will make a late run at them and if the pace scenario gets hot and contested then he could make his presence felt in the stretch.
Race #11
1st - #5 Kings Fjord | 2nd - #6 Arkhill | 3rd - #7 Elegant Avie
COMMENTARY : The #5 KINGS FJORD has some nice works for a barn that has done well with their young stock this year and with this race really not coming up overly tough I think he’ll be tough to beat. The #6 ARKHILL has also trained well and served notice that he has some talent with his quick move on September 8th when he drilled five furlongs in 1:00.60. The #7 ELEGANT AVIE is yet another that has trained well for her debut and with leading rider aboard this one likely has a shot as well.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY THE AFTERNOON !!!!