Mike's Race Analysis September 22, 2007
Race #1
1st - #7 Blasting Gunn | 2nd - #5 Freequartersmine | 3rd - #4 Postmaster General
COMMENTARY : The #7 BLASTING GUNN was a close fourth from an outside post in his first stakes try late last month; he’s worked well for his return and should get a better trip than he did last time so I’ll pick him over the #5 FREEQUARTERSMINE. The latter finished just in front of the #7 BLASTING GUNN and with his dynamic speed is the one to beat. The #4 POSTMASTER GENERAL won as the rider pleased in his career debut and is one destined to improve and head into stakes company.
Race #2
1st - #4 Spirit Bear | 2nd - #8 Lion Bill | 3rd - #7 Pacific Storm Cat
COMMENTARY : The #4 SPIRIT BEAR raced greenly in his debut and finished well back; he’s been working very well and with a couple of key changes (blinkers and Lasix) he should improve a lot today. The #8 LION BILL is taking a significant drop in price after latest effort at the maiden allowance level; he has speed and leading rider in the tack so he should be dangerous in this spot. The #7 PACIFIC STORM CAT has been freshened up after a series of no-threat efforts with tougher and should hit the top three in this heat.
Race #3
1st - #4 Just Like Dreads | 2nd - #1 Alpha Danjur | 3rd - #7 Ruthwell
COMMENTARY : The #4 JUST LIKE DREADS finally got his second career victory easily besting some non-twos at this same tag a couple of weeks ago; he moves up slightly into the non-threes but with the threat of a decent pace in here I like him to repeat. The #1 ALPHA DANJUR was a game runner-up at this same condition and is likely to be tough again this afternoon. The #7 RUTHWELL tried open company in his latest after an easy score two starts back over non-two types; he’s in with restricted company again and gets his winning pilot back so we should see a better showing from him today.
Race #4
1st - #1 Belle Of Rainier | 2nd - #5 Sheisrough | 3rd - #7 E Commerce
COMMENTARY : The #1 BELLE OF RAINIER is down in class after her score at the $20,000 tag and considering she’s beaten most of these handily in the past there’s no reason to go against her in this spot. The #5 SHEISROUGH looks to be the second best in here but she must avoid a pace duel if she’s to hold second place. The #7 E COMMERCE has breezed through her conditions winning three of her last four but does face a much tougher test this afternoon.
Race #5
1st - #3 Colondelivery | 2nd - #5 Golden Pursuit | 3rd - #2 Agro
COMMENTARY : The #3 COLONDELIVERY ran a huge race last time as he battled on a quick and contested pace and was very game in the late going but had to settle for second. There is other speed in here but if he repeats his last race he’s going to be tough to reel in regardless of the pace scenario. The #5 GOLDEN PURSUIT was a winner at this same tag and distance with the same pilot up so he should be a major factor. The #2 AGRO has been sharp of late winning two of his last three and he looks like a solid runner for the exotics.
Race #6
1st - #5 K.D. Day | 2nd - #10 Not Just Dreaming | 3rd - #9 Regal Daniell
COMMENTARY : The #5 K.D. DAY is taking a suspicious drop in class after being reclaimed by her former owners; she’ worked well since the claim but doesn’t have a work in the last three weeks which is a concern. She had speed to burn and if she’s close to her form of earlier this year she’ll easily beat this crew. The #10 NOT JUST DREAMING has a good work and an equipment change (blinkers off) so perhaps better is in store; she has a tough post but does get leading rider. TOUGH CALL !! The #9 REGAL DANIELL was second at this same condition last time out but this dash has come up much tougher and she too has a tricky post to overcome.
Race #7
1st - #5 Shantico | 2nd - #3 Melanie Mariah | 3rd - #2 Golden Haley
COMMENTARY : The #5 SHANTICO hasn’t shown a whole lot so far in her brief career but she’s getting a much easier assignment and should a strong wire-to-wire threat. The #3 MELANIE MARIAH has improved with each start and is exiting a very quick heat in which she was a good third. The #2 GOLDEN HALEY really woke up in her latest race as she showed speed and stayed on well to hold the third spot; she has a nice post for her tracking style and with a good trip she could a major factor in the late going.
Race #8
1st - #5 Above The Clouds | 2nd - #6 T.J. Hennessy | 3rd - #7 Lend Me An Ear
COMMENTARY : The #5 ABOVE THE CLOUDS had a perfect trip in behind a quick pace in his latest victory and it appears that he’ll get the same set up again today so I’ll go right back to him to win another. The #6 T.J. HENNESSY is big contender in this tough $15,000 heat as he takes a drop from $25,000 after a solid second place effort. The #7 LEND ME AN EAR isn’t the best horse in the race but he has the right running style for today’s race and could make his presence felt late.
Race #9
1st - #4 Alpine Garden | 2nd - #5 Tanika | 3rd - #8 Rivoltella
COMMENTARY : The #4 ALPINE GARDEN has improved with each start and finally gets to stay at the same track for back-to-back races which I think will prepare her well for what will need to be her best performance. She has speed and will have a tactical edge on her two chief rivals which I think will play a key role in the outcome. The #5 TANIKA has been Alberta’s best filly winning three stakes and finishing second behind the #4 ALPINE GARDEN in the Sonoma. She has enough early speed to get into a good striking position and give herself a shot to turn the tables on ‘Garden’. The #8 RIVOLTELLA is a lightly raced daughter Broken Vow that recently won the Washington Oaks over a very sloppy track and with rain in the forecast this a plus for her. The nine furlong distance also plays in her favour so if the pace scenario gets a little heated then she looks like the one that will prosper.
Race #10
1st - #6 Monashee | 2nd - #1 Galica | 3rd - #3 Slewpast
COMMENTARY : The #6 MONASHEE is obviously the one to beat as she looks for her tenth consecutive stakes victory but this will be no easy task for her as she’s asked to tote 130 pounds over a mile and a sixteenth. She’s been dominating her competition and easily won her last two in Alberta but if she’s ever going to lose this will be the time as she concedes 15 to 18 pounds to her six rivals over what could be an ‘off’ track. The #1 GALICA was hurt by a very slow pace in her last but with things looking a little livelier on the pace this time I think she has an excellent chance of getting into the EXACTA; she loves an ‘off’ track and seems to get better in the fall and with leading rider sticking with her she should run her best race which is usually good enough to beat most of these gals. The #3 SLEWPAST had to go to Alberta to get a prep race (finished a close third) for the final two stakes of the year for the older mares (Ballerina is in three weeks) and if her best effort surfaces she can be a big factor as well.
Race #11
1st - #6 War Victress | 2nd - #5 Inukshuk | 3rd - #4 Unspoken Thoughts
COMMENTARY : The #6 WAR VICTRESS is taking a big drop in class and doesn’t catch a very tough field at all so if she can improve slightly then she should be in the top three. The #5 INUKSHUK broke much better and was in a good striking position but failed to make any headway in the closing stages; a repeat performance gets her close to a win. The #4 UNSPOKEN THOUGHTS will finally graduate to the two-turn game after six tries going three and a half furlongs; her speed will make her a big threat but her stamina will be tested.
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