Mike's Race Analysis September 15, 2007
Race #1
1st - #3 Saint Barz | 2nd - #1 Proud Son | 3rd - #2 Williwaw
COMMENTARY : The #3 SAINT BARZ was unlucky not to win last time out as he was fanned four wide throughout the entire trip and still was right there at the end; there looks to be enough speed to set him up and I think he’ll get a better trip today and win the money. The #1 PROUD SON has been freshened up after a couple of distant runner-up efforts and he has run some big races off of a layoff in the past. The #2 WILLIWAW had a much better result last time as he was placed in a far more competitive spot and if he can avoid a pace battle he has the potential to win against these types.
Race #2
1st - #4 Pingita | 2nd - #1 Entry | 3rd - #2 Mocha Time
COMMENTARY : There appears to be plenty of speed in this dash so I went looking for the best ‘closer’ in the field and I came up with the #4 PINGITA who rallied from well off-the-pace to get her first tally of the season and I like her chances of repeating. The #1 duo of #1 SOPHISTICATED STAR and the #1A TYRA are both runners that like to run on the pace which may hurt them in this particular race but they are both capable if the pace scenario isn’t too tough. The #2 MOCHA TIME is way down in price after her second consecutive no-threat performance; she’s worked reasonably well and one should respect her at this level.
Race #3
1st - #1 Newton John | 2nd - #4 Cusack | 3rd - #3 Crescent Remark
COMMENTARY : The #1 NETWON JOHN has pace pressure and still ran away on the #4 CUSACK in the late stages and with no real pace pressure coming this time it’s tough to see anything changing this afternoon. The #3 CRESCENT REMARK wasn’t his usual gritty self in his latest but he will team with Gutierrez which could change things.
Race #4
1st - #8 Mining Interactive | 2nd - #5 About Midnight | 3rd - #9 Miss Hap
COMMENTARY : The #8 MINING INTERACTIVE turned in a far better effort in her latest and with her taking one step down in class I think she’ll take this easier group wire-to-wire. The #5 ABOUT MIDNIGHT had a rough trip from an outside post in her last but she’s better drawn for her tracking style today and looks to be the main threat to my top pick. The #9 MISS HAP is coming way down in class and with her going on Lasix for the first time she could be a factor.
Race #5
1st - #9 Mister La Rock | 2nd - #3 Jackson County | 3rd - #2 Atchelitz Lad
COMMENTARY : The #9 MISTER LA ROCK wasn’t disgraced in his debut as he was forced out four wide on the pace and I though he did well to hang tough until the eighth-pole; he should be a little tighter today and with him facing easier and not a lot of pace he should be a far tougher opponent for his rivals this time. The #3 JACKSON COUNTY was a clear second in a decent time in his most recent race and he’ll break through with a win very soon. The #2 ATCHELITZ LAD turned in a much improved effort last time and if the pace scenario gets heated then he’ll have a shot but even if it doesn’t I still like him to rally and get into the TRIACTOR and SUPERFECTA.
Race #6
1st - #4 Vyking Venture | 2nd - #9 Afleet B's | 3rd - #2 Kokeeno
COMMENTARY : The #4 VYKING VENTURE did well to be second in her last after racing out in the four path the entire journey; she’s better drawn today and could finally get rid of that ‘bridesmaid’ tag. The #9 AFLEET B’S looked sharp in beating maidens a couple of weeks back and if she can shake loose early again today she could keep her winning streak going. The #2 KOKEENO has been freshened up and has some sharp works for his comeback which will be with leading rider up and first time Lasix.
Race #7
1st - #6 Ghost Pirate | 2nd - #2 Ranglin Road | 3rd - #1 Masterpeach
COMMENTARY : The #6 GHOST PIRATE has taken the big plunge after winning for $25,000 five weeks ago and with no real sound advice to give on a horse like this other than to take a long look at him on parade and decide from there. TOUGH CALL !!! The #2 RANGLIN ROAD was much better in his latest but how he fares today really relies on the status of some others in here. The other mystery runner in here is the #1 MASTERPEACH who is dropping from $15,000 but at least he’s on the drop after some dismal efforts not like the #6 GHOST PIRATE who won his latest; this could be a race to take quite a few runners in the first leg of the PICK-4.
Race #8
1st - #10 E Commerce | 2nd - #1 Angelina B | 3rd - #7 Simply Rose
COMMENTARY : The #10 E COMMERCE has been very sharp of late and is sitting on a win at this level but she does have a tricky post assignment which could make things difficult for her. The #1 ANGELINA B could be the one that benefits from what could be a very hot and contested pace. The #7 SIMPLY ROSE had a rough trip in her last which caused her finish well back; she too will appreciate a fast pace being set in front of her so I’ll give her another shot.
Race #9
1st - #7 Turbo Tommy | 2nd - #1 Dr. J. C. | 3rd - #6 Admiral Rodney
COMMENTARY : The #7 TURBO TOMMY is back in with maidens this afternoon and the last time he ran with maidens he narrowly lost at the $15,000 level; he’s in for $8,000 and looks to just have the #1 DR. J.C. to beat. The latter just missed at this same tag but he moves to the inside which is not a good thing for him which is why I’ve sided with the #7 TURBO TOMMY. The #6 ADMIRAL RODNEY had a wide trip with far better company in his Hastings debut so down at this level he should be a major player. These three horses look like a solid TRIACTA BOX.
Race #10
1st - #4 Willie Katchem | 2nd - #2 Black Austin | 3rd - #7 Rainbow Dash
COMMENTARY : The #4 WILLIE KATCHEM was a close fourth with slightly tougher company in his last; he should get a perfect trip stalking the speedy #7 RAINBOW DASH and if he repeats his last he should get the money. The #2 BLACK AUSTIN has turned in a couple of sharp drills and will get his easiest test to date so we should a better result from him today. The #7 RAINBOW DASH is up in price but does have the all important speed edge on his rivals so he must be respected.
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