Mike's Race Analysis September 1, 2007

Race #1

1st - #7 Northern Skipper | 2nd - #4 Fire Boss | 3rd - #2 Final Kat

COMMENTARY : The #7 NORTHERN SKIPPER is taking a big drop in class and finds a field that he should be able to beat although there’s plenty of other early interest for the lead which could make things a little tough. He has run well sitting just off the pace in the past so I’ll gamble that he gets a decent trip and wins on the big class drop. The #4 FIRE BOSS had every shot to win last time but just came up a little flat; if he can regain his form of two starts ago then he has a big shot in this dash. The #2 FINAL KAT has been competitive with much tougher competition and has worked well since a brief freshening so he deserves respect as well.

Race #2

Race #3

1st - #1 Jackson County | 2nd - #4 Cielo's Lad | 3rd - #6 Nickity Split

COMMENTARY : Both the #1 JACKSON COUNTY and the #4 CIELO’S LAD had rough trips last time and still managed to finish in the money so on paper they look like the probable EXACTOR and it was really a coin-toss as to who to pick to win as there won’t be much between them at the finish again today. The #6 NICKITY SPLIT made up good ground late after a tardy beginning and if he can break with the field he could threaten the top two for the win.

Race #4

1st - #4 Sir Luther | 2nd - #7 Too Much Drama | 3rd - #6 Slick Victor

COMMENTARY : The #4 SIR LUTHER looks like a standout as he takes a huge drop from the $15,000 level down to the bottom tag of $5,000; he has speed and not a whole lot of other competition for the early lead so he should win at a short price. The #7 TOO MUCH DRAMA has the potential to knock off the favourite and will need to stay close that rival if he’s to pull off the minor upset. The #6 SLICK VICTOR was in good position going long in his latest but hung late and finished a no-threat third; he seems to be a better sprinter so I like him to come running late and get into the top three.

Race #5

1st - #4 Lunar Seven | 2nd - #3 Regal Roo | 3rd - #2 Mayne's Finale

COMMENTARY : The #4 LUNAR SEVEN looked good going long in her latest staying on for second money so with her shortening up to a sprint today she should find the line first. The #3 REGAL ROO closed up nicely to get second behind a filly (Prosperito) that has won three in a row and if the #4 LUNAR SEVEN isn’t at her best then this gal could get all the cash. The #2 MAYNE’S FINALE chased a fast pace in her latest and if left alone on the head end could be tough at a nice price.

Race #6

1st - #1 Lucky Cahill | 2nd - #9 R Associate | 3rd - #3 Dirt Devil Drew

COMMENTARY : The #1 LUCKY CAHILL is in good form right now and just finished running fourth against open $8,000 company; there should a decent enough pace in here and that’s all he needs to get a fair shot at winning. The #9 R ASSOCIATE is taking a huge plunge in class and really hasn’t run a decent race in over a year but one has to respect his back-class and I’ll put him in the second spot. The #3 DIRT DEVIL DREW gets a better post for his style and he’s reunited with the pilot that has won most of his races so I expect an improved result today.

Race #7

1st - #4 Alpine Garden | 2nd - #5 Suva | 3rd - #6 Napa

COMMENTARY : The #4 ALPINE GARDEN is proving to be another excellent private acquisition by the Cheema/Jordan connections as she broke her maiden at Woodbine then came west to Alberta and captured the $100,000 Sonoma very comfortably; she continues westward and her winning pilot Quincy Welch comes with her and with this race coming up soft for early speed she looks like a strong wire-to-wire candidate. The #5 SUVA was very game in her latest victory on B C Cup day as she had a tough trip and considering she hadn’t raced since early June I thought she ran huge to win the photo. The #6 NAPA has been in excellent form of late winning two stakes races and narrowly missing in her last but will need a pace battle to win today.

Race #8

1st - #5 Miss Soul | 2nd - #10 About Midnight | 3rd - #4 How Iz It Sarah

COMMENTARY : The #5 MISS SOUL has been running well with pricier maiden so with her in a soft spot today I think she’ll win the money. The #10 ABOUT MIDNIGHT is ‘live’ in here as well but she’ll need some luck from her outside post although this rider (Gutierrez) has been winning from outside draws all year long. The #4 HOW IZ IT SARAH has improved since going in blinkers getting paycheques in her last two starts, she will need to continue to improve if she’s to win today but I still like her to finish in the money.

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON AT THE RACES !!!!