Mike's Race Analysis October 8, 2007
Race #1
1st - #6 Destiny's Home | 2nd - #1 My Entitlement | 3rd - #2 End Result
COMMENTARY : The #6 DESTINY'S HOME is coming out of the toughest races and seems to be the best filly on paper but this will be a new distance for her so I'll take her but with guarded optimism. The #1 MY ENTITLEMENT is tackling winners today but this really isn't an overly tough spot so if she can rate early and carry her speed a mile and a sixteenth she has a shot as well. The #2 END RESULT is the proven runner going long as two of her three victories this season have come at this trip and even though those races were with considerably easier company it's encouraging to see leading rider stay with her on the big class hike.
Race #2
1st - #1 Bad Sneakers | 2nd - #5 Gold Ticket | 3rd - #3 Sin Toro
COMMENTARY : The #1 BAD SNEAKERS battled on the pace in the $33,000 Derby Consolation race and was very game right down to the wire; this race seems to be coming up a little easier so I think a repeat of his last race gets him the money this afternoon. The #5 GOLD TICKET is a nice solid horse runs his best races when Mario Gutierrez is up and he's back aboard today; this is a new distance for him but I think he'll perform well. The #3 SIN TORO had every shot to win last time and on the final turn it looked like he was a lock to get the victory but he got a little tired late and had to settle for third money; he'll need his best and a contested pace in front of him to beat the top two.
Race #3
1st - #5 Sheisrough | 2nd - #6 Dramatic Charmer | 3rd - #3 Tamarinda
COMMENTARY : The #5 SHEISROUGH just finished winning a similar heat a couple of weeks back and with this dash looking like it'll set up the same way with her tracking the speed I think the final outcome will be the same as well. The #6 DRAMATIC CHARMER is back in three year old fillies after a couple of tries with older mares so she'll definitely appreciate the easier company. The #3 TAMARINDA has speed to burn but hasn't be able to stay on for a win but if she an shake loose from the #5 SHEISROUGH then she has a shot especially the way the track has been playing (speed has been doing very well) of late.
Race #4
1st - #1 K P Timber | 2nd - #4 Singing Dixieland | 3rd - #5 John Patrick
COMMENTARY : The #1 K P TIMBER was a bit of a disappointment in his latest as he failed to make the lead and finished an uninspiring seventh but finding out that he bled that day and will race on Lasix I've decided to give him another chance. The #4 SINGING DIXIELAND has been very good in his last two sprints and if the speedy #1 K P TIMBER doesn't last on the head end then he has a great shot for the win. The #5 JOHN PATRICK ran well in his first start at this level and should be a big factor again today.
Race #5
1st - #3 Zippy Zak | 2nd - #6 Alpha Danjur | 3rd - #7 Goldrush Victory
COMMENTARY : The #3 ZIPPY ZAK has been the king of the $5,000 ranks this year and with him drawing inside I like him to extend his winning streak to four. The #6 ALPHA DANJUR looks like the main danger and if he can stay close to the pace he has the best shot of knocking off the favourite. The #7 GOLDRUSH VICTORY just beat an easier field of $5,000 claimers and will need to step it up to stay with the top two.
Race #6
1st - #1 Buckaroo Lou | 2nd - #8 Yoodaman | 3rd - #7 Mudchute
COMMENTARY : The #1 BUCKAROO LOU has been tackling much tougher company this season and seems to have found a group that he should be able to handle; there isn’t a lot of speed in this one so he should find his way to the lead and should be tough to catch. The #8 YOODAMAN shook off some rust checking in fifth which was his first start in a year; he’s stretching out to his best trip and should be more of a factor today. The #7 MUDCHUTE is another that is down in class and if he repeats his only run at this trip he should be in contention for the win.
Race #7
1st - #5 Newton John | 2nd - #6 Cusack | 3rd - #3 Lord Vic
COMMENTARY : The #5 NEWTON JOHN and the #6 CUSACK are far better than their eight rivals but there were some rumblings at press time that they both could be scratched if they are both out then this race becomes a wide open affair. The #3 LORD VIC was full of run in his victory two weeks ago which was his first start with an extended blinker; if he continues his improving trend then he has a good chance because I think he’ll stay the 14 furlong journey.
Race #8
1st - #4 Desert Alf | 2nd - #5 Freequartersmine | 3rd - #3 Surprisal
COMMENTARY : The #4 DESERT ALF tipped his hand that he’s going to be a nice colt with his strong runner-up effort behind the top two year old Star Prospector in the $66,000 Sales Stakes four weeks back. A repeat of that race should get him the money but judging by his final work (1:00.40) he could be even better this afternoon. The main competition for him will be the speedy #5 FREEQUARTERSMINE who blew away a field of allowance runners two weeks ago and the way speed is staying of late he may never be caught. The #3 SURPRISAL has blossomed into a solid horse that wasn’t disgraced in either of his two stakes tries; trainer Joe Gallo has called on his buddy Alan Cuthbertson to ride. This race shapes as an excellent contest in which any one of the 9 runners could possibly win.
Race #9
1st - #6 Forever Love | 2nd - #8 Northern Captain | 3rd - #3 Northern Link
COMMENTARY : The #6 FOREVER LOVE is dropping down to a level where he should win especially with him being able to run third against $15,000 maiden company in his first start of the year. The #8 NORTHERN CAPTAIN ran his best race of his career in his latest and if he repeats that race then he could prove tough to reel in. The #3 NORTHERN LINK had a rough trip last time which contributed to his poor finish and I’m willing to give him another shot.
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